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Opinion

Canada’s Financial Freefall: When Rosy Rhetoric Meets Hard Reality

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7 minute read

This article is from The Opposition With Dan Knight substack.  

The Trudeau Government’s Economic Alchemy: Turning Gold Hopes Into Lead Numbers

Good morning, my fellow Canadians. It’s September 3, 2023, and if you’re expecting to wake up to a bright, financially secure Canada, well, I have some sobering news for you. The latest figures from Statistics Canada are in, and they confirm what many of us have suspected: the Canadian economy is not on the up-and-up. Despite the rosy pictures painted by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minster Chrystia Freeland, the real numbers don’t lie, and they point to an economic landscape in turmoil. Allow me to break it down for you.

The new Statistics Canada data is in, and it paints a rather bleak picture of the Canadian economy under the watchful eyes of the federal government and Justin Trudeau. Let’s delve into some numbers, shall we? A staggering $16.5 billion in debt was added by Canadian households in the first quarter of this year alone, with $11.2 billion being in mortgage debt. In an environment of 5% interest rates, a rate we haven’t seen for over a decade, this is a financial bomb waiting to explode.

And let’s not forget inflation. Since 2021, we’ve seen a cumulative inflation rate of around 16.5%. Now, remember, these aren’t just abstract numbers on a ledger somewhere; these are realities hitting your grocery bills, your gas prices, your rents, and slowly emptying your wallets. But it’s not just households feeling the pinch. The economy as a whole is stalling, with real GDP nearly unchanged in the second quarter of 2023, following a measly 0.6% rise in the first quarter.

Amidst all this, Justin Trudeau and the federal government seem content piling on debt like there’s no tomorrow. The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s March 2023 report shows Canada’s deficit is expected to rise to $43.1 billion in 2023-24, up from $36.5 billion in 2022-23. And let’s not forget that 1 out of every 5 dollars in this debt spree didn’t even exist pre-pandemic. Essentially, we’re spending money we don’t have, to solve problems we’re not solving, all while making new ones.

So, where has all this spending gone? Not into securing a robust future for Canadians, I can tell you that. Despite the monumental deficits and the reckless spending, housing investment fell 2.1% in the second quarter,marking its fifth consecutive quarterly decrease. Canadians are struggling to make ends meet, and the government’s financial imprudence is exacerbating, not alleviating, the situation.

But here’s a twist to the story: while investments in housing decline, Justin Trudeau decided it was prime time to open the floodgates of immigration. There’s an aspect of governance called planning, something that seems foreign to this administration. How does one justify allowing over a million immigrants into Canada without even hinting at a solution for housing them? The result is basic economics – demand outstrips supply, and prices soar.

Remember the days before Trudeau’s reign, when the average home in Canada cost around $400,000? Eight years under his watch and that figure has doubled. Trudeau’s policies seem like a cruel jest to young families, professionals, and, frankly, anyone aspiring to own a piece of the Canadian dream. It’s almost as if he expected the housing market to “balance itself”.

And before you think this is just a ‘rough patch,’ let me remind you that household spending is also slowing. So not only are Canadians going into debt, but they’re also cutting back on spending. They’re being hit from both sides, and there’s no end in sight. The government’s promises of prosperity seem increasingly hollow when we see that per capita household spending has declined in three of the last four quarters.

The Trudeau administration’s approach to governing appears to be in a parallel universe, one where debt is limitless, and financial responsibilities are for the next government or even the next generation to sort out. And don’t even get me started on the higher taxes lurking around the corner to pay off this bonanza of spending. This isn’t governance; it’s financial negligence.

When Canadians were told that this level of inflationary spending could turn our country into something akin to Venezuela, many scoffed at the idea. But let’s face it: the signs are becoming hard to ignore. The truth is, many Canadians have been led to believe they can have gold-plated social services without paying an ounce of gold in taxes. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seemed more than happy to sell that narrative. He promised a utopia, a social safety net woven from dreams and aspirations. But what has that net caught? Rising costs, crippling debt, and a harder life for everyday Canadians.

Trudeau has turned out to be less a responsible steward of the economy and more of a Pied Piper, leading us all off a fiscal cliff while playing a cheerful tune. Or perhaps he’s more like the Cheshire Cat from “Alice in Wonderland,” grinning broadly as he disappears, leaving behind only his grin and a trail of false promises.

As we approach the pivotal year of 2025, don’t forget who sold you this bill of goods. Remember the skyrocketing costs of living, the unmanageable debt, and the empty words that were supposed to make everything better. I, for one, certainly won’t forget. And I suspect, come election time, neither will you.

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Alberta

Why Some Albertans Say Separation Is the Only Way

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From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

Frustrated. Fed up. Ready for change. That’s how many Albertans feel after years of being sidelined by Ottawa.
In this eye-opening episode, David Leis sits down with Dr. Dennis Modry and Lawyer Jeff Rath—two key voices behind the Alberta Prosperity Project—to talk about the growing push for sovereignty.
Is Alberta better off on its own? Why are more people demanding a referendum? And what would independence really look like—for the economy, Indigenous communities, and Alberta’s place in the world?
We get into everything: Trudeau’s policies, the recent election, the TMX pipeline, Western alienation, and why some say the current system is simply ungovernable. If you think the separation talk is just noise… you’ll want to hear this. (83 minutes)

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Business

New fiscal approach necessary to reduce Ottawa’s mountain of debt

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

Apparently, despite a few days of conflicting statements from the government, the Carney government now plans to table a budget in the fall. If the new prime minister wants to reduce Ottawa’s massive debt burden, which Canadians ultimately bear, he must begin to work now to reduce spending.

According to the federal government’s latest projections, from 2014/15 to 2024/25 total federal debt is expected to double from $1.1 trillion to a projected $2.2 trillion. That means $13,699 in new federal debt for every Canadian (after adjusting for inflation). In addition, from 2020 to 2023, the Trudeau government recorded the four highest years of total federal debt per person (inflation-adjusted) in Canadian history.

How did this happen?

From 2018 to 2023, the government recorded the six highest levels of program spending (inflation-adjusted, on a per-person basis) in Canadian history—even after excluding emergency spending during COVID. Consequently, in 2024/25 Ottawa will run its tenth consecutive budget deficit since 2014/15.

Of course, Canadians bear the burden of this free-spending approach. For example, over the last several years federal debt interest payments have more than doubled to an expected $53.7 billion this year. That’s more than the government plans to spend on health-care transfers to the provinces. And it’s money unavailable for programs including social services.

In the longer term, government debt accumulation can limit economic growth by pushing up interest rates. Why? Because governments compete with individuals, families and businesses for the savings available for borrowing, and this competition puts upward pressure on interest rates. Higher interest rates deter private investment in the Canadian economy—a necessary ingredient for economic growth—and hurt Canadian living standards.

Given these costs, the Carney government should take a new approach to fiscal policy and begin reducing Ottawa’s mountain of debt.

According to both history and research, the most effective and least economically harmful way to achieve this is to reduce government spending and balance the budget, as opposed to raising taxes. While this approach requires tough decisions, which may be politically unpopular in some quarters, worthwhile goals are rarely easy and the long-term gain will exceed the short-term pain. Indeed, a recent study by Canadian economist Bev Dahlby found the long-term economic benefits of a 12-percentage point reduction in debt (as a share of GDP) substantially outweighs the short-term costs.

Unfortunately, while Canadians must wait until the fall for a federal budget, the Carney government’s election platform promises to add—not subtract—from Ottawa’s mountain of debt and from 2025/26 to 2028/29 run annual deficits every year of at least $47.8 billion. In total, these planned deficits represent $224.8 billion in new government debt over the next four years, and there’s currently no plan to balance the budget. This represents a continuation of the Trudeau government’s approach to rack up debt and behave irresponsibly with federal finances.

With a new government on Parliament Hill, now is the time for federal policymakers to pursue the long-ignored imperative of reducing government debt. Clearly, if the Carney government wants to prioritize debt reduction, it must rethink its fiscal plan and avoid repeating the same mistakes of its predecessor.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

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