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By Science and Technology Desk

New study finds billions more trees than expected, making boreal forests a bigger carbon sink than we thought

Canada’s boreal forests may be far more resilient to climate change than previously believed, with new research showing they contain billions more trees than past estimates, potentially boosting Canada’s natural defences in the fight against global warming.

Spanning from Yukon to Newfoundland, the boreal forest is one of the largest intact ecosystems in the world. It plays a crucial role in absorbing carbon dioxide, protecting biodiversity and supporting Indigenous and rural communities.

A new University of Alberta study provided the most accurate estimate to date of how many trees populate the boreal region, reducing long-standing uncertainties in forest carbon modelling and management.

The result: 277 billion trees across the boreal zone, including 30 billion in Alberta—31 per cent more than estimated in a major 2015 global study.

“Our research provides by far the most accurate and credible answer to the question of how many trees are in our boreal forests,” said study lead Fangliang He, a forest ecologist and Canada Research Chair in Biodiversity and Landscape Modelling.

“Knowing that there are 31 per cent more trees than previously estimated suggests our boreal forests have greater capacity to mitigate climate change.”
Tree counts like this help scientists and policymakers understand how much carbon forests can absorb and store, critical for estimating how large a role boreal ecosystems can play in national emissions strategies.

To improve on the earlier global estimate, He’s team compiled data from a record 4,367 tree plots across Canada and Alaska, compared with just 346 used in the 2015 study.

“This provides a large set of data with extensive geographic coverage in North America,” He said.

To measure trees 10 centimetres or larger in diameter—the same threshold used in the 2015 analysis—He and his team used an artificial intelligence algorithm to develop competition-based models that included tree height, a key indicator of forest competition. The use of AI allowed the researchers to detect patterns that traditional methods might miss.

“These innovative models represent a major advance in improving the accuracy of estimating tree count.”

The researchers also projected future tree density under a range of climate scenarios to see how the boreal forest might respond to a warming planet. The findings were surprising: under increasingly warmer conditions, tree density in the boreal forest would rise overall by at least 11 per cent by 2050.

“This result suggests that boreal forests might be more resilient to climate change than we thought,” He said.

The study, he added, underscores the need for better data and forecasting tools to support forest management and climate policy.

While the federal government has pledged to plant two billion trees by 2030, He said that effort is nowhere near enough.

“That number only accounts for 0.83 per cent of our estimated total number of 240 billion boreal trees in Canada, speaking to the mitigation challenge through tree-planting,” he said.

At current planting rates, he said, it would take centuries to match the natural regeneration and density needed to make a measurable impact.

“Protection of natural forests is the best nature-based solution.”

The study contributes to a growing body of research using artificial intelligence to model complex ecological systems, and could influence Canada’s future forestry and climate strategies.

Science and Technology Desk

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