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Cyclone Idai deaths could exceed 1,000 as need for aid grows

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BEIRA, Mozambique — As flood waters began to recede in parts of Mozambique on Friday, fears rose that the death toll could soar as bodies are revealed.

The number of deaths could be beyond the 1,000 predicted by the country’s president earlier this week, said Elhadj As Sy, the secretary-general of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

In addition to worries about the number of dead, As Sy told The Associated Press that the humanitarian needs are great.

“They are nowhere near the scale and magnitude of the problem,” As Sy said. “And I fear we will be seeing more in the weeks and months ahead, and we should brace ourselves.”

Thousands of people were making a grim voyage toward the city of Beira, which although 90 per cent destroyed has become a centre for frantic rescue efforts throughout the region.

Some walked along roads carved away by the raging waters a week ago. Others, hundreds of them, were ferried in an extraordinary makeshift effort by local fishermen who plucked stranded people from small islands.

Helicopters set off into the rain for another day of efforts to find people clinging to rooftops and trees.

For those who reach Beira with their few remaining possessions, life is grim. Waterborne diseases are a growing concern as water and sanitation systems were largely destroyed.

“The situation is simply horrendous, there is no other way to describe it,” As Sy said after touring transit camps for the growing number of displaced. “Three thousand people who are living in a school that has 15 classrooms and six, only six, toilets. You can imagine how much we are sitting on a water and sanitation ticking bomb.”

What moved him the most was the number of children without their parents, separated in the chaos or newly orphaned.

“Yesterday (we) did a reconnaissance and we found another (inland) lake. So we are still very early in the phase of identifying what the scope of this is, for who is affected and how many are lost,” Emma Batey, co-ordinator for the consortium of Oxfam, CARE and Save the Children, told the AP.

Luckily, the area is a national park and less densely populated, she said. Still, “there were devastatingly small amounts of people.”

She estimated that another 100 people would be airlifted out on Friday: “We’re only picking up those in absolute dire need.”

No one is still clinging to roofs and trees, she said.

Pedro Matos, emergency co-ordinator for the World Food Program, said that what rescuers are seeing now is “sometimes it’s just a hut completely surrounded by water.”

“If islands are big enough, we can even see smoke coming out, meaning that they’re cooking,” he said, adding that it remains “super difficult” to estimate a death toll or even the number of missing.

For residents of Beira, life staggered on. People salvaged the metal strips of roofs that had been peeled away like the skin of a fruit. Downed trees littered the streets. And yet there were flashes of life as it used to be. White wedding dresses stood pristine behind a shop window that hadn’t shattered.

Zimbabwe was also affected by the cyclone and as roads began to clear and some basic communications were set up, a fuller picture of the extent of the damage there is beginning to emerge.

The victims are diverse: a mother buried in the same grave with her child, headmasters missing together with dozens of school students, illegal gold and diamond miners swept away by raging rivers and police officers washed away with their prisoners.

The Ministry of Information said 30 pupils, two headmasters and a teacher are missing.

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa said Thursday that officers and prisoners were washed way.

In Mutare, fear gripped residents even though they are more than 140 kilometres (85 miles) from Chimanimani, the worst-hit part of Zimbabwe.

Maina Chisiriirwa, a city resident, said she buried her son-in-law, who had left the city to go to Chiadzwa diamond fields to mine illegally.

“There are no jobs and all he wanted was to feed his family. He was with his colleagues. They thought it would be easier to mine since the rains would keep the guards and the police away from patrolling,” Chisiriirwa said. His colleagues survived but her son-in-law was swept away, she said.

A man who travelled several kilometres (miles) to a reception centre for survivors in Chimanimani said several of his colleagues were swept away as they tried to cross a river while fleeing from a mountain known for rich gold deposits and frequented by hordes of illegal miners.

In downtown Beira, a sidewalk is Marta Ben’s new home. The 30-year-old mother of five clutched a teary child to her hip as she described the sudden horror of the storm.

“I’ve never seen anything like this,” she said, barefoot, a cooking pot bubbling nearby. “We were not warned. Suddenly the roof flew away.”

She said she and neighbours in their home near the beach hurried their many children away but “we lost some of them.” Hers survived.

Now they claim a patch of sidewalk among others newly homeless. They beg passers-by for aid. They say they have received nothing from the government or aid groups, “not even bread.”

And yet she knows others have suffered more. She described seeing the ragged people who had been ferried by fishermen from communities outside the city. “They looked sad,” she said.

The survivors from inland Mozambique arrived by the boatload, some 50 at a time, mostly children, witnesses said.

“Some were wounded. Some were bleeding. Some had feet white like flour for being in the water for so long,” said Julia Castigo, who watched them arrive Friday morning.

The 24-year-old said the cyclone came as a surprise to her, her husband and two children. It blew away the roof, the door, the windows. Water filled the home.

She looked resigned. “We survived. We’re still here,” she said simply.

“The people didn’t even have clothes, nothing to cover them,” said Ignacio Dango, who watched them arrive on the beach. The 24-year-old boat builder said he saw sick, wounded and very young. “Like 5 years old.”

They came from Buzi, he said.

Residents of Beira muttered “Meu Dio!” (“My God” in Portuguese) as they went about the city and came across new scenes of destruction.

___

Farai Mutsaka reported from Mutare, Zimbabwe.

Cara Anna And Farai Mutsaka, The Associated Press













































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Agriculture

Moisture situation in Alberta following warm and dry first half of winter

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Agricultural Moisture Situation Update – January 3, 2024

Synopsis

This year’s El Niño has developed into a strong El Niño and currently has a 54% chance of developing into a “historically strong” event, according to NOAA. Current forecasts are projecting El Niño to diminish in April 2024. In the past for Alberta, not all El Niño’s have resulted in warmer and drier weather; however, this unusually warm and dry winter will forever be tied to the 2023-2024 El Niño and will serve as an important data point in the future.

In the 90-days since October 6, 2023, temperatures have remained well above average, with many parts of the northern-half of the province seeing temperatures this warm less than once in 50 years (Map 1). This coupled with low precipitation accumulations has resulted in virtually snow free
conditions across parts of all four of our agricultural regions
(Map 2).

Winter Precipitation Accumulations

November 1, 2023 to January 3, 2024

Since November 1st, the unofficial start to winter in Alberta, precipitation has been well below average across much of Alberta’s agricultural areas (Map 3).

Most of the lands south of Grande Prairie and north of Ponoka are estimated to have a winter thus far, this dry on average, less than once in 50-years. Dry conditions have also persisted across the Central and Southern Regions, ranging from a few widely scattered pockets of near normal to at least once in 25 year lows, centered around the Jenner area (approx. 200 km east of Calgary). Total accumulations currently range from less than 3 mm through parts of the North West and North East Regions up to only 20-30 mm along the foothills and through the western and northern portions of the Peace Region (Map 4).

For the dryer parts of the North West and North East Regions this translates to less than 10% of the 1991-2020 average (Map 5).

Elsewhere, most other lands have received precipitation accumulations that have generally been less
than 50% of the 1991-2020 average.

Perspective

From an annual moisture budget perspective, October through to March generally mark the dry season across the agricultural areas (Map 6), accounting for only about 20% of average annual accumulations across most of the Southern Region, to upwards of 30-35% across the Peace Region.

These significant moisture deficits thus far (50% of the way through the dry season), while discouraging to many, make up only a small portion of the annual moisture budget for an area. Winter is not over yet and if the current forecast is correct, a significant cold snap is on its way over the next few days and it is expected to persist well into next week, perhaps even longer. Along with the cold snap, there is also a forecast for moisture and the promise of at least some snow cover across many areas.

Spring is yet many weeks away and anything can happen between now and then. Furthermore, February on average, is the driest month of the year with most agricultural lands normally receiving less than 15 mm of moisture during this month (Map 6). Let’s hope, for the sake of our producers,
that we descend into at least near “normal” winter conditions and that we see one of Alberta’s famous weather reversals, with respect to moisture. Above average snow fall is very much needed now. Much of the land is extremely dry and has been held tenaciously in the grip of a long-lasting dry
cycle that needs to end soon!

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Alberta

With hail storms this size it’s a miracle no one was killed

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Monday, August 1st will be a day hundreds of Albertans will never forget.  The hail storm that devastated an area of Central Alberta resulted in a series of terrifying experiences for motorists on the QE II, especially around Antler Hill, just north of Innisfail. This is a map of the area most affected by the largest hail stones most have seen in their lifetimes.

Yes we’ve all heard people talk about “baseball” or “tennis ball” sized hail in the past.  In this case, those comparisons are simply too small!

Now you can imagine how terrifying it must have been to be caught driving on the QE II south of Red Deer and north of Innisfail during this storm on Monday, August 1st.  Here’s what that felt like, courtesy of Gibran Marquez as posted on the Facebook Page Alberta Storm Reports

This couple was remarkably calm considering the battering they were experiencing!

 

The immediate aftermath.

 

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