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Bruce Dowbiggin

All Bets Are Off: Why Prop Betting Scares Sports Leagues, Police

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Sunday’s Super Bowl concluded another season of wagering on the sport made great by gambling. With billions wagered legally— and billions wagered illegally—the NFL is a Frankenstein of the betting industry. Everything is done to create parity while simultaneously promoting chaos. When other leagues talk about success they are talking about the NFL’s colossal gambling industry.

The penetration of betting has only increased with legalization in Canada (Ontario is the only “open” legal market at the moment) and the United States (38 states currently allow sports wagering). It has gotten to the point where sports bettors in Las Vegas, for decades the only legal spot for sports gambling, complain that Nevada is falling behind its neighbours. Some drive across state lines to wager on sports offerings not made in Vegas.

We could do a small book on all the new betting applications that have sprung up with sharps applying stock-market analytics and trading strategies to break down a football game. But for today we’ll concentrate on the device that has turbo-charged public betting in the past generation: Proposition bets. And the enormous risk they bring.

In the bad old days when gambling was underground, dominated by organized crime, football betting meant the money line (who will win), sides (by how many points) and totals (how many points would be scored in as game). The range of options within these parameters was limited. You could parlay (two bets), tease (two or more choices with alternate odds) or do future bets.

Then along came proposition bets (props). There are propositions on everything from how many yards player X will run for, how many interceptions Player Y will throw and how many touchdowns player Z will score. There are also team props. The range of props covers almost any result generated by a football game— and a few generated by halftime shows and coin flips.

When props first began to catch the public interest, they were a novelty. Snobs saw them as sucker bets for squares. In Vegas, books would stage a glitzy launch ten days before the game to announce their props. No more. The first props for SB LIX were out minutes after the conference final games were decided. The brushfire is now a conflagration.

The two weeks before SB LIX were saturated with experts breaking down the teams, their predilections and their models for predicting prop winners. In a game with no appreciable favourite this meant every microchip of data being examined. (We had at least a dozen props then added a couple more during the game to hedge against any losers.)

The great fallibility of prop betting is their individual nature. With totals and sides the results are determined by efforts of the 92 NFL players allowed to suit up each week. Outside of the QBs, kickers, coaches and perhaps the referees, no single person could determine a W or L. Not so with props.

A player can drop a pass or miss a tackle— affecting his prop— without anyone being the wiser. The NFL scrutinizes players for erratic patterns, but on a single basis anything is possible for a player who is being influenced by bettors. Integrity of the product is paramount for the NFL and its gambling partners. So a rogue player is like a communist in Joe McCarthy’s America.

There is also betting on non-football props concerning length of national anthem, colour of Gatorade used to douse the winning coach and clothing choices of the halftime performers. Here, bettors are truly on their own as the NFL has no control on Kendrick Lamar’s playlist. (Considering KL’s associates “in the hood” this a very Wild West way to lose money) own the colour of Gatorade used (yellow).

So far the NFL has avoided any public gambling scandal like the one that landed  the personal translator for Dodgers’s star Hideki Ohtani in jail for tipping off  gamblers. (So far MLB has managed to wall off Hideki from the crimes). But the possibilities are there in NFL and other sports where a player compromised by debts, drug issues or sexual activity can be leveraged for profit.

The league with the most visible prop problem is the NBA with its small rosters (15 players game day). For a reminder the NBA was forced to admit that there is a current police probe into player Terry Rozier, now of the Miami Heat. “In March 2023, the NBA was alerted to unusual betting activity related to Terry Rozier’s performance in a game between Charlotte and New Orleans,” NBA spokesman said. While the NBA has cleared Rozier police area not satisfied.

In the 2023 matchup between the Hornets and the New Orleans Rozier pulled himself from the game after just nine minutes. As a result Rozier finished well below his prop bet of 32.5 combined points, assists and rebounds. Bettors howled about the suspicious nature of Rozier’s exit with a foot problem.

What made cops suspicious was that the network of gamblers placing money on Rozier was the same network that had allegedly manipulated former Raptor Jontay Porter’s prop numbers. Porter has been banned for life over charges he shaved numbers for the nefarious characters cited in the rosier story. Police are still investigating him.

The NBA is still reverberating from the 2007 scandal of referee Tim Donaghy who used his knowledge of the NBA to bet on professional basketball games and tip off crimes figures. He was banned for life and sentenced to 15 months in prison. Now released from prison Donaghy continues to warn about the vulnerability of betting NBA games.

Then there is the risk associated with U.S. college athletics now that players are paid to attend a certain college. Money and temptation flow freely in the new portal system that allows players to transfer schools midway through their eligibility.

Sunday’s game produced a one-sided windfall for Eagles’ bettors and the usual controversial referee calls did not affect the outcome. But it should not be seen as a reason to be less vigilant, particularly with props.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Where To Draw The Line: Is Carney’s Daughter Off-Limits to Media?

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Have you heard the latest message-board trope from Team Liberal? As their polls allegedly soar in the wake of Donald Trump and his 51st state comments they are trying to censor social-media posts that PM Mark Carney’s 24-year-old is a gender radical.

Take It Down,” pleads one poster. “It’s his kids, we need to leave family alone, you can attack Carney all day long as hard as you want but please just leave his kids out of it. Carney decided to run, his family isn’t running. This is a mistake on many levels”.

So, using this logic we shouldn’t report on the Hunter Biden scandal? He wasn’t running for anything either. No? Where is the journalistic dividing line? Sasha is a 24-year-old public figure who was long-listed for a CBC poetry prize with some tortured pentameter about baking and dysphoria.  Sasha is a grownup who is not trying to escape the limelight. Quite the opposite. Sasha is pursuing it, and Daddy’s leap to PM is seen as good news back at the gender studies lab.

This Liberal pity party over protecting “the kids” is what happens when social media confuses journalism with safe spaces. To the hush puppies trying to censor this issue on public media, we offer a terse: You’re out of your lane.

There are times in journalism when it’s unethical to cite the children of famous people. When they are not used as props for a photo op in India. When they don’t trade on the family name to get the job as prime minister. When they spend weekends reading instead of calling Canada a genocidal nation. Leave them alone.

Just not this time. There is a compelling cultural story surrounding non-binary Carney, however. Sasha is just one of a dramatic spike of young middle- and upper-class women who are engaged in a mass psychosis over dysphoria. With or without the help of parents they are hacking themselves surgically or castrating themselves chemically. Radicals have taken them up as a cause célèbre.

(Which apparently includes domestic terrorism. Three of the four recent Tesla attacks in the U.S. are reported to be radical transgender groups. And a recent murder of a border patrol agent in Vermont has been attributer to another cell of radical trans activists. Police officials say they are a growing safety menace.)

From the outside this rejection of their birth identity is absurd. As one wit says, 98 percent of us wake up each morning and are unhappy with what we see in the mirror. This is why a fashion industry exists. But the Sasha Army  represents an enormous challenge to traditional society. It is no laughing matter till it blows over— as bulimia appears to have done.

Twenty years ago— when a similar demographic of young women was starving itself with bulimia— the transexual community in the U.S. and Canada counted about 0.01 percent of citizens. Now, bulimia has largely disappeared from public attention while these gender-obsessed young people from ages 6- 26 are counted in staggering numbers. They have a Marxist fanaticism about their unalterable identity decision in Grade One or Two. And a censoring media that bulldogs anyone trying to bring sunlight to little Tinkerbell.

As just one example we spoke to the parents of a recent female graduate of Queens University. She reports that four of the seven young women in her group are having gender re-assignment or becoming non-binary. These are not marginal people making these brutal decisions in a vacuum. They’re often the products of elite schools and loving, stable families. Surrounded by university-educated teachers.

Go ahead and ask your daughters, nieces and other young women their experiences in liberal-arts colleges and faculties. That 57 percent figure is likely consistent with other anecdotal reporting in the demo. Modern Woke women, allegedly freed from their chains by feminism, are struggling with self-image.

Pew Reports says that 80 percent of white liberal women have been diagnosed by a medical professional as having a mental-health condition in the past five years. Over 50 percent of liberal women under 30 of all races have sought help. Older white women account for 58 percent of people who’ve used anti-depressants the past five years.

Polling by the Washington Examiner during the 2024 election highlights the isolation of this demographic. It showed during the 2024 election that married men are 59 percent Republican. Married women are 55 percent Republican. Unmarried men are 52 percent Republican But a whopping 68 percent of unmarried women backed Kamala.

This imbalance is multiplied disproportionately by the Democrats media stenographers using propaganda such as The View to perpetuate the gap. In the words of Robert Tracinski in The Federalist, these women have immunized themselves against hostile messages. “(F)or years, the left has trained itself in the habit of assuming that the only reason anyone disagrees with them is because of racism.

“As a consequence, those who live in this bubble tend to reflexively dismiss anyone who brings them a contrary message from the outside world.”

While minute fluctuations in global climate are parsed intently, this exploding trans community goes largely unreported by the Media Party in Canada and the U.S. If it does get air time it is unfailingly worshipful. Parents, doctors and teachers who object  are faced with social scorn and loss of jobs— not unlike the shaming of Covid skeptics and vaxx deniers. The prospects of a majority of young white women opting out of childbearing will be catastrophic to society.

Much of this gender war can be traced back to the movements to “safe spaces” for young people having trouble coping in colleges and universities. Marxist academics— many of whom fled to Canada to avoid American conservative politics— employed the safe-space mentality to isolate vulnerable groups such as women and visible minorities from contrary messaging.

When they graduated this Red Guard transferred the safe space model to the general public. Factionalism by demography frayed the social contract. This new victimization trope was employed by Barack Obama and later Justin Trudeau to control voting blocs and criminalize Bad Think. For almost a generation they held sway.

With the election of Donald Trump America has finally begun pushing back against radical gender indoctrination.In other countries the reaction is the same. But Canada under dedicated EuroGlobalist Carney shows no sign of relenting on the insanity. If anything Carney would push DEI, LGBTQ+ and ESG ever further.

It’s not an exaggeration that given a Carney government, Canada may be the final nation clinging to this DEI/ LGBTQ construct in the future. As we were told by one dedicated follower of dysfunction, “Someone has to set an example”.  Maybe Sasha Carney can write a poem about it.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his latest book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon and at http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

The National Freakout Over The 4 Nations Drama Still Resonates

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The recent 4 Nations Tournament Showdown left many people drained. On top of the best-on-best format was laid the bubbling Canada/ United States political drama.  As we wrote in the wake of the round-robin U.S. win over Canada any thoughts of friendship went out the window, Fast. It was a night few will forget. The 3-1 score of Team U.S. over Team Canada being secondary to other outcomes.

“Expecting a guys’ weekend like the concurrent NBA All Star game, the fraternal folks instead got a Pier Six brawl. It was the most stunning beginning to a game most could remember in 50 years. (Not least of all the rabid Canadian fanbase urging patriotism in the home of Quebec separation) Considering this Four Nations event was the NHL’s idea to replace the tame midseason All Star Game where players apologize for bumping into each other during a casual skate, the tumult as referees tried to start the game was shocking.

Despite public calls for mutual respect, the sustained booing of the American national anthem and the Team Canada invocation by MMA legend Georges St. Pierre was answered by the Tkachuck brothers, Matthew and Brady, with a series of fights in the first nine seconds of the game. Three fights to be exact when former Canuck J.T. Miller squared up with Brandon Hagel. (All three U.S. players have either played on or now play for Canadian NHL teams.)

Premeditated and nasty. To say nothing of the vicious mugging of Canada’s legend Sidney Crosby behind the U.S. net moments later by Charlie McEvoy.”

In the rematch for a title created just weeks before by the NHL  the boys stuck to hockey. Anthem booing was restrained. Outside of an ill-advised appearance by Wayne Gretzky— now loathed for his Trump support— the emphasis was on skill. Playing largely without injured Matthew and Brady Tkachuk and McAvoy, the U.S. forced the game to OT where beleaguered goalie Jordan Binnington held Canada in the game until Connor McDavid scored the game winner.

For Canadians invested in debunking Trump it was a delirious moment. For hockey fans starved for best-on-best it was a triumph.

But what about the less-appreciated aftermath of the brief tournament (held without Russians, Czechs or Slovaks)? Perhaps the most public outcome was the now-demonization of Gretzky in Canada. Just as they had with Bobby Orr, another Canadian superstar living in America, Canadians wiped their hands of No. 99 over politics. Despite appeals from Orr, Don Cherry and others, the chance to make Gretzky a Trump proxy was too tempting.

We have been in several arguments on the subject among friends: Does Gretzky owe Canada something after carrying its hockey burden for so long? Could he have worn a Team Canada jersey? Shouldn’t he have made a statement that he backs Canada in its showdown with Trump? For now 99 is 0 in his homeland.

More tangibly it seems that the stars of the Canadian and American teams are suffering from a hangover themselves from the emotional series. Toronto captain Auston Matthews— victimized on the OT goal against Canada— has been sluggish as his Leafs, hoping to avoid the play-in segment of the postseason, are a tepid 5-4-1 in their last ten. By his own admission he and his team have lacked a killer instinct since the 4 Nations.

McDavid and his Edmonton Oilers are sputtering, too. While Leon Draistaitl carries the freight (as a German he was out of 4 Nations), McDavid’s Oilers are an uncomfortable nine points up from missing the playoffs. Heading into a contract run, McDavid seems exhausted some nights as rumours swirl about his next deal. It’s hard to see how the tournament hasn’t taken a toll.

On the U.S. side, Florida has had to battle on with Tkachuk, its emotional leader, out for the regular season after the injury sustained in the 4 Nations. There’s more. As much as fans loved the great drama, NHL owners will be wary of losing their best players to injury in future tournaments. It’s a reason there has been so little best-on-best hockey the past generation.

Perhaps the least-appreciated backlash so far from the 4 Nations turmoil is the effect of Canadians, who have many Americans playing in their nation, booing the Star Spangled Banner. Under the heading of sin in haste/ repent at leisure, the impulsive show of bad sportsmanship may have felt good at the moment. Leftist Toronto Star scribbler Bruce Arthur, said “You’re damn right Canadians should boo the anthem.”

But what repercussions will Arthur’s temper tantrum have on Canadian teams in the NHL, NBA, MLB? Most Canadians we asked dismissed the impact, but imagine you are an American free agent or a player with a no-trade clause contemplating an offer to play in Canada. Having seen your national anthem disrespected will you let bygones be bygones?

It remains to be seen if a Canadian federal election held alongside the NHL playoffs will have any repercussions on the ice. But in the current manic mood of Canadians freaked out by Trump nothing is beyond possibility.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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