illegal immigration
Will Mexico Face A Hot Shooting War With The Cartels?
From Todd Bensman for the Daily Wire
As Mexico prepares to position 10,000 troops between cartels and their drug money, odds are the lead will fly
The chosen political slogan of Mexico’s last and current president, “Abrazos, no balazos” (“Hugs, not Bullets”), is often embraced to describe official government policy toward the country’s ultra-violent drug-trafficking cartels. The beauty of this slogan is that it requires no explanation.
The reverse, however, “Bullets, not Hugs,” is probably up next whether Mexico likes it or not. President Donald Trump has just forced Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to capitulate to a threat of ruinous 25% trade tariffs on Mexican exports unless she uses military force to suppress the flow of fentanyl (and illegal immigrant smuggling) over the U.S. southern border. She’s deploying 10,000 troops to cartel country, right smack in the drug-trafficking lanes of Mexico’s far northern precincts along the U.S. border.
This deployment of Mexican troops, however, is quite different from previous ones, in which the main mission was to slow illegal immigration only, including during Trump’s first term and throughout the Biden term. For this one, the Trump mission demand is, as State Department Spokeswoman Tammy Bruce put it recently, that Mexico needs to “…dismantle transnational criminal organizations, halt illegal migration, and stem the flow of fentanyl and precursor chemicals from China.”
That American priority has just put Mexican forces in the crosshairs of the most sensitive cartel hotspot: the blood-soaked zone between heavily armed cartel forces and their money just across the U.S. border.
John Moore/Getty Images
As if this was not provocative enough on its own, a senior Trump official with direct knowledge told me bilateral plans call for at least some of the more trusted of Mexico’s forces to physically attack cartel-run narcotics depots that would include pre-smuggling fentanyl hubs inside Mexico.
Certain U.S. intelligence groups are working with the Mexican government “to give them an exact laydown. They say they’re going to target the narcotics. We’re literally still at the table.”
All of this should prove triggering, literally, to any of Mexico’s nine main cartels once the whole enterprise ramps up in earnest.
I have a good feel for what this set of circumstances portends. As a reporter for Hearst News in San Antonio, Texas, from 2006-2009, I regularly covered the exceptionally bloody civil drug war against the cartels that Felipe de Jesus Calderón Hinojosa (2006-2012) declared and which, after hundreds of thousands of Mexican casualties, spawned the popularly preferred “Hugs, not Bullets” policies of his successors. The U.S. partnered with Mexico throughout the war, providing targeting intelligence and billions of dollars to modernize its security forces. All of that was for a quest to stem the flow of illegal drugs into the United States.
But after six years of ferocious combat and widespread torture and assassination, Mexico retreated in almost total defeat. The drug flow may have dipped from time to time but it never stopped.
In the years since, I’ve often pondered whether Calderón and his successors should have trebled down when defeat seemed inevitable, as did former President George W. Bush during the Iraq war. When the chips were down amid calls for a humiliating U.S. withdrawal during the Iraq war, Bush famously turned the tables by deploying 30,000 more troops. With Mexico, however, disrupting fentanyl production and trafficking with the military will not be easy, and may very well spark another government-cartel war similar to 2006-2012.
John Moore/Getty Images
The stars and planets all seem to be aligning for more violence, including from an unexpected quarter: President Sheinbaum herself may be aching for this fight.
Rodrigo Nieto-Gomez, a Mexico-born and educated national security research professor for the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California said Sheinbaum has installed anti-cartel Morena Party hardliners over much of Mexico’s state security apparatuses. This wing of her party, Nieto-Gomez explained, has been spoiling to shed the “Hugs, not bullets” policy for a good hard fight with the cartels.
Trump is now providing a “top-cover” excuse for them to finally exert the military pressure they’ve been wanting.
“Trump’s actions have temporarily tilted the playing field in favor of Morena,” Nieto-Gomez said. “With the right philosophy and the right level of American support, we may see a different type of violence in Mexico.”
Perhaps a worthy achievable goal for Mexican military fireworks is that it forces a sort of devil’s truce where the cartels, whose leaders are the most consummate and pragmatic of capitalists, ultimately agree to voluntarily quit fentanyl altogether as a good business decision — if the other drugs are allowed to roll in as usual. After all, when the operatives are shooting and dying, they’re spending rather than earning.
What seems certain, however, is that Trump’s inevitable following through on his campaign promises to suppress fentanyl ups the chances of a conflict between the Mexican military and the cartels. No doubt the cartels are now feeling uncharacteristically pinched these days on many other fronts thanks to Trump’s return.
John Moore/Getty Images
Trump has asked his Secretary of State to designate them as foreign terrorist organizations, which would open authorities for America and its allies to seize assets and prosecute banks and people who work with the cartels on serious “material support” crimes. To isolate and weaken them where it counts, in the pocketbook, and disrupt their global operations.
And, of course, Trump has all but killed the biggest cash cow those cartels have seen in years by shuttering the southern border almost hermetically in a matter of days. Their smugglers are moving probably fewer than 500 illegal immigrants a day now, most of them caught and deported right away, compared to 14,000 a day last December. Those numbers are a catastrophe and should drive the cartels to invest everything they have in drug trafficking again.
Because they are now free from babysitting and processing illegal migrants all day long, Border Patrol is back on the drug traffickers full force and they have help, the U.S. military is down there glassing the landscape and using surveillance assets to spot the traffickers.
Some of the cartels were already so frustrated their leaders approved the use of drones to attack U.S. agents standing in the way of drug loads. Cases of firearms attacks on Border Patrol are rising.
Now Mexico’s going to put 10,000 troops in between them and their money?
If she is not already, Sheinbaum should be preparing for the worst right about now. President Trump absolutely expects some kind of real action — with demonstrable results — or else he’ll push that tariff button. She’s under pressure right now to produce something, anything, whether for show or not. And the cartels are ever ready to go to war.
Thanks to former President Joe Biden’s mass migration program, it could very well happen, because now the impulsive, brazen, money-hungry cartels are are extremely well-armed from the billions they all earned over the past four years.
John Moore/Getty Images
Sheinbaum undoubtedly discerns the dangers here and will have to tread carefully between appeasing Trump and sparking another all-out civil war, which many in the United States believe is long overdue. And maybe it is. She and all the cartel leaders would probably feel lucky to cap things down to merely a “splendid little war” like the 1898 Spanish-American war.
But President Trump knows the art of the deal often pivots on what’s good business for everyone involved.
Mexico’s 2006-2012 war shows the cartels will more than likely survive whatever fireworks are coming, if any. Trump may make them realize sooner rather than later that they just have to give up the fentanyl.
* * *
Todd Bensman is a Senior National Security Fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies and a two-time National Press Club award winner. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism and a 23-year veteran newspaper reporter. He is the author of “America’s Covert Border War,” and “Overrun: How Joe Biden Unleashed the Greatest Border Crisis in U.S. History.”
Crime
CBSA Bust Uncovers Mexican Cartel Network in Montreal High-Rise, Moving Hundreds Across Canada-U.S. Border
A court document cited by La Presse in prior reporting on the case.
The conviction targets Edgar Gonzalez de Paz, 37, a Mexican national identified in court evidence as a key organizer in a Montreal-based smuggling network that La Presse documented in March through numerous legal filings.
According to the Canada Border Services Agency, Gonzalez de Paz’s guilty plea acknowledges that he arranged a clandestine crossing for seven migrants on January 27–28, 2024, in exchange for money. He had earlier been arrested and charged with avoiding examination and returning to Canada without authorization.
Breaking the story in March, La Presse reported: “A Mexican criminal organization has established itself in Montreal, where it is making a fortune by illegally smuggling hundreds of migrants across the Canada-U.S. border. Thanks to the seizure of two accounting ledgers, Canadian authorities have gained unprecedented access to the group’s secrets, which they hope to dismantle in the coming months.”
La Presse said the Mexico-based organization ran crossings in both directions — Quebec to the United States and vice versa — through roughly ten collaborators, some family-linked, charging $5,000 to $6,000 per trip and generating at least $1 million in seven months.
The notebooks seized by CBSA listed clients, guarantors, recruiters in Mexico, and accomplices on the U.S. side. In one April 20, 2024 interception near the border, police stopped a vehicle registered to Gonzalez de Paz and, according to evidence cited by La Presse, identified him as one of the “main organizers,” operating without legal status from a René-Lévesque Boulevard condo that served as headquarters.
Seizures included cellphones, a black notebook, and cocaine. A roommate’s second notebook helped authorities tally about 200 migrants and more than $1 million in receipts.
“This type of criminal organization is ruthless and often threatens customers if they do not pay, or places them in a vulnerable situation,” a CBSA report filed as evidence stated, according to La Presse.
The Montreal-based organization first appeared on the radar in a rural community of about 400 inhabitants in the southern Montérégie region bordering New York State, La Presse reported, citing court documents.
On the U.S. side of the line, in the Swanton Sector (Vermont and adjoining northern New York and New Hampshire), authorities reported an exceptional surge in 2022–2023 — driven largely by Mexican nationals rerouting via Canada — foreshadowing the Mexican-cartel smuggling described in the CBSA case.
Gonzalez de Paz had entered Canada illegally in 2023, according to La Presse. When officers arrested him, CBSA agents seized 30 grams of cocaine, two cellphones, and a black notebook filled with handwritten notes. In his apartment, they found clothing by Balenciaga, a luxury brand whose T-shirts retail for roughly $1,000 each.
Investigators have linked this case to another incident at the same address involving a man named Mario Alberto Perez Gutierrez, a resident of the same condo as early as 2023.
Perez Gutierrez was accompanied by several men known to Canadian authorities for cocaine trafficking, receiving stolen goods, armed robbery, or loitering in the woods near the American border, according to a Montreal Police Service (SPVM) report filed as evidence.
The CBSA argued before the immigration tribunal that Gonzalez de Paz belonged to a group active in human and drug trafficking — “activities usually orchestrated by Mexican cartels.”
As The Bureau has previously reported, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Cabinet was warned in 2016 that lifting visa requirements for Mexican visitors would “facilitate travel to Canada by Mexicans with criminal records,” potentially including “drug smugglers, human smugglers, recruiters, money launderers and foot soldiers.”
CBSA “serious-crime” flags tied to Mexican nationals rose sharply after the December 2016 visa change. Former CBSA officer Luc Sabourin, in a sworn affidavit cited by The Bureau, alleged that hundreds of cartel-linked operatives entered Canada following the visa lift.
The closure of Roxham Road in 2023 altered migrant flows and increased reliance on organized smugglers — a shift reflected in the ledger-mapped Montreal network and a spike in U.S. northern-border encounters.
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Los Angeles County leaders have declared a state of emergency over Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations, a move that federal officials and conservative leaders are blasting as a political stunt that undermines the rule of law.
JUST IN: Los Angeles County declares a state of emergency in response to the ICE raids, will provide rent relief.
The LA County Board of Supervisors made the move as the Trump admin continues to ramp up the raids.
“The move allows the LA County Board of Supervisors to provide… pic.twitter.com/DqtvvfhWDu
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 15, 2025
On Tuesday, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors approved a “Proclamation of Local Emergency for Federal Immigration Actions,” with only one supervisor, Kathryn Barger, voting no. The board claimed that ICE raids “created fear, disrupted neighborhoods, and destabilized families, workers, and businesses” across the region.
Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, who introduced the measure, said the declaration “ensures that the full weight of County government is aligned to support our immigrant communities who are being targeted by federal actions.” But critics say the move has nothing to do with public safety and everything to do with shielding criminal illegal aliens from deportation. “The only emergency is the one the residents of Los Angeles face after electing officials who give a middle finger to the law,” an ICE spokesperson told Fox News, adding that the agency is simply enforcing President Trump’s mandate to remove those in the country illegally — including violent offenders.
ICE spokesperson Emily Covington went further, saying, “Perhaps the board should ‘supervise’ funds to support law-abiding fire victims who still haven’t recovered instead of criminal illegal aliens seeking refuge in their sanctuary city. While they publicly fear-monger, I would be shocked if they didn’t agree with ICE removing a child rapist from their neighborhood.”
Attorney General Pam Bondi called the move “illegal” and accused Los Angeles County of aiding and abetting lawbreaking. “They don’t care about their citizens,” Bondi said on Fox News’ Hannity. “It’s hurting our citizens, and we’re going to keep fighting for the American people.” Chair Kathryn Barger — the lone dissenting vote — also warned that the county’s action could trigger federal consequences, noting that “the federal government has sole authority to enforce federal immigration law, and local governments cannot impede that authority.” She added that the county should instead push for “meaningful immigration reform that is fair, pragmatic, and creates legal pathways for those who contribute to our communities.”
The board’s declaration allows county departments to “mobilize resources, expedite contracting and procurement, coordinate interagency response, and request state and federal assistance” for residents impacted by ICE operations. It will remain in effect until the supervisors vote to terminate it. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced in August that between June and August, ICE agents arrested more than 5,000 illegal immigrants across Los Angeles County — including gang members, child predators, and murderers. “Families protected. American taxpayers spared the cost of their crimes AND the burden of their benefits,” Noem said at the time. “Thank you to our brave law enforcement officers. Make no mistake: if you are here illegally, we will find you, arrest you, and send you back. This is just the beginning.”
Critics of the county’s new proclamation say it sends the opposite message — one that rewards lawlessness and punishes those enforcing the law. As ICE continues its work to deport violent offenders, Los Angeles’ leadership appears more focused on fighting federal immigration law than on protecting the residents they were elected to serve.
(AP Photo/Eric Thayer)
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