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International

White smoke vs. black smoke: How do we know when we have a new pope?

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7 minute read

From LifeSiteNews

By Michael Haynes, Snr. Vatican Correspondent

Though no formal schedule has been released yet, it is expected that the smoke on Wednesday night could appear between 7 and 8 p.m. Rome time (11 a.m. and 12 noon MST)

How does voting work in a conclave, and when can we expect to see the black or white smoke?

LifeSite’s explainer is here to answer your questions.

Votive Mass and procession into the Sistine Chapel

Wednesday, the first day of the conclave, sees all the cardinal electors gather in St. Peter’s Basilica, where they celebrate the special votive Mass for the election of a pope. The Mass takes place at 10 a.m.

After this, the cardinal electors will next present themselves to the Pauline chapel on the first floor of the Apostolic Palace in the afternoon, at 4:30 p.m. Here they listen to an exhortative homily intended to offer spiritual wisdom for the weighty duty they face. From here they make the famous procession into the Sistine Chapel, where they shall swear their oaths for the conclave itself.

It is at this point that the televised production will stop, after the Master of Ceremonies orders all the non-electors out of the room with his famous command “Extra omnes.”

First vote Wednesday

That afternoon sees the first vote take place. This is widely understood to be an event to take stock of who has early support, but also for some cardinals to pay respect to some honored member of the conclave by voting for them, even though they are not expected to actually be elected pope.

Each cardinal must walk up to the altar in the Sistine Chapel and place his written ballot paper in a container for it to be counted.

According to Pope John Paul II’s 1996 apostolic constitution Universi Dominici gregis (UDG), the men who count and check the ballots are themselves chosen by lot. If they find discrepancies in the number of ballots in a vote, then they burn all of the papers before officially nullifying the vote.

The ballots of every vote are burned and mixed with a special chemical to produce the famous black smoke so eagerly watched for in St. Peter’s Square. UDG sections 64 through 71 contain precise details about how the votes proceed.

The smoke used to be from the burning of ballot papers, but in recent times a chemical has been used to ensure the correct color is clearly visible to those waiting in the square outside. The ballots and smoke are burned in the temporary stove installed in a corner of the Sistine Chapel.

Thursday voting

The second day sees the start of voting in earnest. There are two sessions – morning and afternoon – each with two votes, meaning a total of four votes per day according to the laws governing the conclave.

However – only at the end of each of the two sessions will there be a smoke signal. That is of course only if a cardinal is not elected on one of the ballots during the day.

The ballot counters read aloud each name on the ballot papers, and tallies are created to record the votes each cardinal receives.

The morning session is anticipated to end some time around noon local time. Cardinals then return to the Casa Santa Martha for lunch, and resume voting around 4 p.m. The evening smoke signal is due around 7 – 8 p.m., unless a pope is elected in the afternoon’s first round of voting.

Pope elected

Upon a candidate receiving two-thirds of the vote, he is asked formally if he accepts the election as Supreme Pontiff.

If the man accepts, he is then asked what name he will take as pope. When he reveals this, the Master of Papal Liturgical Ceremonies swiftly writes a document detailing the new pope’s acceptance and his name.

Providing the candidate is already a bishop – which almost all the members of the College of Cardinals are – the candidate becomes the validly elected pope as soon as he pronounces his formal acceptance of the election.

The ballots are collected, mixed with the chemical for white powder, and burned so that those in St. Peter’s Square see the famous white smoke from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel.

The cardinals greet the new pope in the Chapel and make their individual acts of “homage and obedience,” before all collectively making a prayer of thanksgiving.

The newly elected pope is taken into the sacristy next to the Sistine Chapel, where he changes into one of the white cassocks already prepared for him. This small room is known as the “room of tears” due to the tears shed by the newly name pontiff as he reflects on the enormity of the task now before him.

Once he is ready, the formal announcement to the world is made, with the senior cardinal deacon stepping onto the loggia of the Vatican to pronounce the famous words: “Annuncio vobis gaudium magnum: habemus papam.”

A short time later, the newly elected pope will emerge onto the loggia and greet the crowds who have flocked to the square beneath him, offering his first blessing as pontiff.

conflict

Victor Davis Hanson Makes a Disturbing Prediction About What Happens If Iran Survives

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Amidst rough seas, you need a steady sailor.

Historian and classicist Victor Davis Hanson just delivered a masterful breakdown of the Iran conflict with clarity few can match.

Not just what’s happening, but what’s coming next.

“I think we’re going to see things that we haven’t seen in our lifetime in the Middle East,” he said.

This could go one of two ways, neither is small.

Victor Davis Hanson isn’t known for hyperbole. So when he opens with a warning like this, people pay attention:

“We are at an historic time in the Middle East,” he said.

“Never in our lifetimes have we been closer to a complete revolutionary fervor that gives promise of normalcy for the Middle East. And never have we been in more danger of seeing the entire region blow up.”

The paradox is striking.

Peace may be closer than ever, but so is total collapse.

And at the center of it all is the unfolding conflict between Iran and Israel, which Hanson called “surreal.”

Reflecting on the rapid collapse of Iran’s regional dominance, Hanson admitted that even a few years ago, this moment would have been unthinkable.

“If we had this conversation five years ago,” he said, “and I said to you, the Iranian nation that is huge compared to Israel, ten times the population, the Iranian nation has lost all control of the Houthi terrorists, and they are themselves neutered…”

He pointed to a chain reaction across the region: Iran’s proxy forces in Gaza and the West Bank have been neutralized. Hezbollah, once a feared military force, is now dormant.

“They’re gone as a Hamas, as a fighting force. The formidable, the terrifying Hezbollah cadres, they’re inert.”

The chaos in Syria, once a stronghold of Iranian influence, now seems to be working against Tehran.

“There is no more Syria, the Assad dynasty, the pro-Iranian, the Syria. It’s in chaos. But whatever the chaos is, seems to be anti-Iranian.”

The collapse is strategic, not just symbolic. Hanson noted that the so-called “Shia crescent” connecting Tehran to the Mediterranean is no longer intact.

“Lebanon is free of Iranian influence. So is Syria. Gaza, a de facto, will be.”

Even Russia, once a key ally, is no longer a player in the region.

“It’s tied down in Ukraine,” he said.

“Iran itself, the formidable powerhouse of the Middle East that evoked terror all over, has no defenses.”

Over the course of just five days, Israel has launched a targeted military campaign to dismantle Iran’s strategic infrastructure.

According to Hanson, the damage has been sweeping.

“They have dismantled all of the Iranian missile defenses. They have dismantled the terrorist hierarchy. They have dismantled the people who are responsible for the nuclear program.”

And yet, there’s risk.

“The Iranians have sent over 400 ballistic missiles and drones into Israel,” he said, “and 90 percent are stop. But that 10 percent gets through.”

Which brings us to the turning point.

All of this only matters if it ends with Iran’s theocracy on the brink of collapse.

If it doesn’t, everything that’s been gained could be erased.

“All of this chaos and all of this war will be for not if Iran’s theocracy emerges intact from this war.”

Even more dangerous, he added, would be a scenario in which the country’s nuclear infrastructure survives or can be quickly rebuilt.

That possibility has triggered one of the most urgent strategic questions on the table: Can Israel finish the job?

Or will it need help from the United States to strike Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities?

This is where things get complicated.

Under the “America First” foreign policy doctrine, Trump has been clear: no more forever wars, no more ground troops in the Middle East.

But Hanson argued that Trump’s actions tell a deeper story.

“I’m not an isolationist, I’m a Jacksonian,” he said, echoing what Trump might say.

“You should have known that when I took out Soleimani… when I took out Baghdadi… when I took out the Wagner Group.”

The message? Trump doesn’t go looking for wars. But when deterrence is at stake, he’s not afraid to act decisively.

Still, Hanson posed a chilling question: what if the Iranian regime survives?

“If this war should end with the Iranian regime intact and the elements of its nuclear program recoverable,” he warned, “then in some ways it will be all for naught.”

Despite Iran’s military losses, its media destruction and its isolated position, surviving such a coordinated strike could give it something even more powerful than weapons: perceived invincibility.

“It will be more like, oh my gosh, Iran survived everything that Israel, and by association the United States, threw at it.”

“It’s indestructible.”

And that, Hanson suggested, would be the real danger.

Not just a return to the status quo, but a shift in perception that emboldens the regime and reshapes the balance of power across the region.

Now the question hanging over the entire conflict is this: does the world play it safe and allow remnants of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure to survive?

Or risk a final strike that could eliminate the threat for good, but possibly trigger even greater instability?

“Do you risk more danger by taking out and eliminating the nuclear threat for good,” Hanson asked, “and by association, you humiliate the theocracy to the point it can be overthrown?”

That’s the gamble.

He didn’t shy away from his own discomfort with war.

“I don’t like forever wars,” he added.

“I don’t like preemptive wars. I do not like the United States intervening anywhere in that godforsaken area. But if the war ends with the regime intact and a recoverable nuclear program, it won’t just be back to square one. It will be a disaster.”

That’s when he dropped a bombshell prediction of the future in the area after the dust settles in the desert.

Whether this ends in collapse or resurgence, Hanson believes the next phase of the war could reshape the entire region and the world’s understanding of power in the Middle East.

“So we’ll see what happens,” he said.

“And hold on, everybody. I think we’re going to see things that we haven’t seen in our lifetime in the Middle East. And it could turn out very bad.”

“But it could also turn out to be quite revolutionary and remake the map of the entire region.”

This story was made possible with the help of Overton —I couldn’t have done it without him.

If you’d like to support his growing network, consider subscribing for the month or the year. Your support helps him expand his team and cover more stories like this one.

We both truly appreciate your support!


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International

Taiwan Criticizes CBC Correction on United Front Buddhist Land Story, Citing PRC Political Pressure

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Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry warns that CBC’s editorial change “undermines the essence of press freedom” and reflects growing Chinese pressure on international media.

Canada’s state broadcaster, CBC, is facing diplomatic criticism from Taiwan after issuing a controversial correction to an explosive story regarding Chinese influence via foreign investment in Prince Edward Island—raising new questions about whether Chinese government pressure is compromising Canadian press freedom and influencing media coverage of foreign interference.

On June 14, CBC/Radio-Canada published a report on alleged ties between Bliss and Wisdom, a Buddhist group with growing land holdings on Prince Edward Island, and the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department. The report—based in part on findings from The Bureau’s contributor Garry Clement—noted deep concerns from PEI residents about the group’s agricultural land acquisitions and its alleged links to Beijing, including its reported advocacy for China’s annexation of Taiwan.

It highlighted a high-ranking monk from Taiwan who traveled “between his home country, Prince Edward Island, and China” in 2023 for ideological outreach, at the invitation of a Buddhist organization affiliated with the United Front Work Department—the Chinese Communist Party’s covert foreign interference arm.

But on June 17, CBC issued a correction: “In that story, the reporter said Taiwan is a country that China is threatening to invade. In fact, Taiwan is a self-governing island, and there is dispute around who controls it.” No explanation was provided for the change.

That revision quickly sparked backlash in Taipei. In a statement to Taiwan News, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said it was “regretful and disappointed” to see international media “engage in self-censorship or deliberately avoid using the term ‘country’ to refer to Taiwan due to political pressure from China or concerns about Beijing’s stance.” MOFA reportedly reiterated that Taiwan “is a sovereign and independent country, and is not subordinate to the People’s Republic of China,” and urged foreign media to uphold “objectivity and fairness,” warning that compromise on coverage “undermines the essence of press freedom” and distorts Taiwan’s international status.

CBC did not respond to a request for comment from Taiwan News.

CBC is funded by the federal government and mandated by the Broadcasting Act to serve the public interest with independence, journalistic integrity, and balanced coverage. Taiwan’s concerns, delivered through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, suggest a de facto state-to-state issue.

The CBC correction was also flagged Thursday by Canadian diaspora advocacy group Friends of Hong Kong, which has documented suspected United Front influence in Canada, including media pressure campaigns. “So disappointing for Canadian media: this is a politically-charged correction, due to either self-censorship or external intervention, and wilfully blind to the reality of #Taiwan the island state,” the group posted to X, calling attention to CBC’s correction notice.

The controversial CBC report was informed by a parallel investigation led by Garry Clement—a former RCMP proceeds-of-crime director—along with former CSIS Asia-Pacific chief Michel Juneau-Katsuya and publisher Dean Baxendale. The three co-authors of the forthcoming book Canada Under Siege spent the past year examining Bliss and Wisdom’s land acquisitions, foreign financial inflows, and political influence on Prince Edward Island. In his column for The Bureau, Clement warned that the RCMP’s refusal to investigate the group reflects “a chilling portrait of political complacency” and asserted that Canadian democracy is being degraded not by coups or force, but by “the quiet neglect of responsibility.”

CBC has not acknowledged external pressure behind the correction, but The Bureau has previously documented similar interference. In November 2024, China’s Consul General Yang Shu directly pressured Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim after he invited Taiwan’s representative to a civic luncheon, stating: “This was inappropriate… The Consulate General of the People’s Republic of China is the only consular mission representing China in Vancouver.” The PRC expressed dissatisfaction with the participation of Taiwan’s envoy in the B.C. Consular Corps luncheon—despite established diplomatic practice allowing their attendance.

Given this backdrop, it is plausible—though not confirmed—that CBC received similar behind-the-scenes pressure following its original PEI report.

That concern finds further grounding in evidence tabled before Canada’s Hogue Commission and leaked intelligence reviewed by The Bureau.

A leaked October 2022 CSIS report analyzed by The Bureau found that China’s election interference and political influence in Canada have been enabled by Beijing’s covert “takeover” of Chinese-language media, along with sophisticated, massively funded schemes targeting mainstream outlets and seeking to control “key media entities,” according to intelligence documents.

These clandestine operations have involved threats against journalists, the documents state, as well as inducements—such as benefits offered by Vancouver’s Chinese Consulate to cultivate “key editors, producers, and high-ranking managers.”

Among the declassified top-secret records presented to the Hogue Commission by diaspora-group participant Gabriel Yiu is a July 2023 Canadian intelligence report titled “CHINA: Domination of Chinese-Language Media in Canada Poses National Security Threats.” The document details systemic Chinese Communist Party influence over Chinese-language media outlets in Canada.

“Communist Party of China (CPC)-friendly narratives inundate Chinese-language media in Canada,” it says. “Censorship (including self-censorship) is pervasive, and alternative voices are few or marginalized in mainstream Chinese-language media. This includes both traditional media, such as newspapers, and digital platforms like WeChat.”

In a column for The Bureau, Yiu wrote, “I believe the Canadian intelligence agency’s assessment is accurate. From my own experience as a commentator since the 1990s, I have observed these shifts.” He also underscored key excerpts from the CSIS report:

  • “The CPC’s strategy to control media operates on two fronts: narrative control and platform control. [redacted] overt and clandestine.”
  • “The CPC limits opportunities for dissenting voices [redacted], provides economic incentives [redacted], and fosters self-censorship [redacted].”
  • “The CPC’s influence on Chinese-language media, shaping public opinion overseas, also supports other activities, including transnational repression and influencing electoral outcomes.”

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