Connect with us
[the_ad id="89560"]

Canadian Energy Centre

What’s next? With major projects wrapping up, what does Canada’s energy future hold

Published

7 minute read

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Mario Toneguzzi

‘This is the first time Canada will enter the global marketplace as a global player, so it is an incredibly important change for the industry’

With the recent completions of the Trans Mountain expansion and Coastal GasLink pipelines, and the looming completion of LNG Canada within the next year, there are few major energy projects with the green light for one of the world’s largest and most responsible energy producers.

Which leaves a lingering question: In a world that has put a premium on energy security, what’s next for Canada?

Heather Exner-Pirot, a senior fellow and director of the natural resources, energy and environment program at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said Natural Resources Canada’s major projects inventory “has been in a pretty sharp decline since 2015, which is concerning.”

“It’s not just oil and gas but also mining, also electricity . . . It’s the overall context for investment in Canada,” said Exner-Pirot, who is also a special adviser to the Business Council of Canada.

“When we look at BC, we see TMX, Coastal GasLink, very soon LNG Canada will be finishing up. That’s probably in the order of $100 billion of investment that that province will lose.

“So you do start to think about what happens next. But there are some things on the horizon. I think that’s part of it. Other LNG projects where maybe it wasn’t politically popular, it wasn’t a social license, and maybe the labour force was also constrained, and now is opening opportunities.”

recent analysis conducted by Exner-Pirot found that between 2015 and 2023, the number of energy and natural resource major projects completed in Canada dropped by 37 per cent. And those that managed to be completed often faced significant delays and cost overruns.

One notable project Exner-Pirot expects to fill the void is Ksi Lisims LNG, which is being developed on the northwest coast of Canada to export low-carbon LNG to markets in Asia. The project represents a unique alliance between the Nisga’a Nation, Rockies LNG and Western LNG.

Ksi Lisims LNG is a proposed floating LNG export facility located on a site owned by the Nisga’a Nation near the community of Gingolx in British Columbia.

The project will have capacity to produce 12 million tonnes of LNG per year, destined for markets in the Pacific basin, primarily in Asia where demand for cleaner fuels to replace coal continues to grow.

Rendering of the proposed Ksi Lisims floating LNG project. Image courtesy Ksi Lisims LNG

As well, the second phase of the LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat, B.C. shows increasing signs of moving forward, which would roughly double its annual production capacity from 14 million tonnes to 26 million tonnes, Exner-Pirot added.

While nearby, Cedar LNG, the world’s first Indigenous-owned LNG export facility, is closing in on the finish line with all permits in place and early construction underway. When completed, the facility will produce up to three million tonnes of LNG annually, which will be able to reach customers in Asia, and beyond.

According to the International Energy Agency, the world is on track to use more oil in 2024 than last year’s record-setting mark. Demand for both oil and natural gas is projected to see gradual growth through 2050, based on the most likely global scenario.

Kevin Birn, chief analyst for Canadian oil markets at S&P Global, said despite the Trans Mountain expansion increasing Canada’s oil export capacity by 590,000 barrels per day, conversations have already begun around the need for more infrastructure to export oil from western Canada.

“The Trans Mountain pipeline, although it’s critical and adds the single largest uplift in oil capacity in one swoop, we see production continue to grow, which puts pressures on that egress system,” he said.

Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

Birn said Canada remains a major global player on the supply side, being the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil and fifth-largest producer of natural gas.

“This is a really important period for Canada. These megaprojects, they’re generational. These are a once-in-a-generation kind of thing,” Birn said.

“For Canada’s entire history of being an oil and gas producer, it’s been almost solely reliant on one single export market, which is the United States. That’s been beneficial, but it’s also caused problems for Canada in that reliance from time to time.

“This is the first time Canada will enter the global marketplace as a global player, so it is an incredibly important change for the industry.”

Exner-Pirot said Canada has the ability to become a major exporter on the energy front globally, at a time when demand is accelerating.

“We have open water from B.C. to our allies in Asia . . . It’s a straight line from Canada to its allies. This is a tremendous advantage,” she said, noting the growth of data centres and AI is expected to see demand for reliable energy soar.

“We are seeing growing electricity demand after decades of plateauing because our fridges got more energy efficient and our washers and dryers got more energy efficient. Now we’re starting to see for the first time in a long time more electricity demand even in developed countries. These are all drivers.”

Alberta

Enbridge CEO says ‘there’s a good reason’ for Alberta to champion new oil pipeline

Published on

Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel. The company’s extensive pipeline network transports about 30 per cent of the oil produced in North America and nearly 20 per cent of the natural gas consumed in the United States. Photo courtesy Enbridge

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Deborah Jaremko

B.C. tanker ban an example of federal rules that have to change

The CEO of North America’s largest pipeline operator says Alberta’s move to champion a new oil pipeline to B.C.’s north coast makes sense.

“There’s a good reason the Alberta government has become proponent of a pipeline to the north coast of B.C.,” Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel told the Empire Club of Canada in Toronto the day after Alberta’s announcement.

“The previous [federal] government’s tanker ban effectively makes that export pipeline illegal. No company would build a pipeline to nowhere.”

It’s a big lost opportunity. With short shipping times to Asia, where oil demand is growing, ports on B.C.’s north coast offer a strong business case for Canadian exports. But only if tankers are allowed.

A new pipeline could generate economic benefits across Canada and, under Alberta’s plan, drive economic reconciliation with Indigenous communities.

Ebel said the tanker ban is an example of how policies have to change to allow Canada to maximize its economic potential.

Repealing the legislation is at the top of the list of needed changes Ebel and 94 other energy CEOs sent in a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney in mid-September.

The federal government’s commitment to the tanker ban under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was a key factor in the cancellation of Enbridge’s Northern Gateway pipeline.

That project was originally targeted to go into service around 2016, with capacity to ship 525,000 barrels per day of Canadian oil to Asia.

“We have tried to build nation-building pipelines, and we have the scars to prove it. Five hundred million scars, to be quite honest,” Ebel said, referencing investment the company and its shareholders made advancing the project.

“Those are pensioners and retail investors and employees that took on that risk, and it was difficult,” he said.

For an industry proponent to step up to lead a new Canadian oil export pipeline, it would likely require “overwhelming government support and regulatory overhaul,” BMO Capital Markets said earlier this year.

Energy companies want to build in Canada, Ebel said.

“The energy sector is ready to invest, ready to partner, partner with Indigenous nations and deliver for the country,” he said.

“None of us is calling for weaker environmental oversight. Instead, we are urging government to adopt smarter, clearer, faster processes so that we can attract investment, take risks and build for tomorrow.”

This is the time for Canadians “to remind ourselves we should be the best at this,” Ebel said.

“We should lead the way and show the world how it’s done: wisely, responsibly, efficiently and effectively.”

With input from a technical advisory group that includes pipeline leaders and Indigenous relations experts, Alberta will undertake pre-feasibility work to identify the pipeline’s potential route and size, estimate costs, and begin early Indigenous engagement and partnership efforts.

The province aims to submit an application to the Federal Major Projects Office by spring 2026.

Continue Reading

Alberta

‘Visionary’ Yellowhead Pipeline poised to launch Alberta into the future

Published on

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Grady Semmens

Heartland leaders welcome proposed new natural gas connector

As a lifelong farmer, entrepreneur and community leader, Alanna Hnatiw knows first-hand the crucial role energy plays in a strong and diverse economy.

The mayor of Sturgeon County, a sprawling rural municipality northeast of Edmonton, Hnatiw has spent much of the last decade working to protect its agricultural roots while building new industries that support the jobs and services families and businesses rely on every day.

Hnatiw says there is widespread appreciation among the county’s 20,000 residents for the opportunities afforded by the province’s oil and gas resources. That’s why she joined other leaders in Alberta’s Industrial Heartland region to applaud a major new natural gas pipeline planned for the area.

“Natural gas is an integral to all the industrial operations in Sturgeon County and the surrounding area. It goes beyond just burning it to turn turbines, it is the feedstock for all kinds of value-added processing. From fertilizer and plastics to petrochemicals and hydrogen, natural gas is the lynchpin for us into the future,” she said.

Filling growing demand

Hnatiw is one of more than a dozen community and industry leaders who sent letters of support to the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) last year endorsing ATCO Energy Systems’ proposed Yellowhead Pipeline project.

The project achieved a significant milestone in August when the AUC approved ATCO’s application determining the pipeline is needed.

The largest infrastructure investment in the company’s history, the 230-kilometre pipeline from Peers to Fort Saskatchewan will transport more than 1.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day when operational in late 2027.

For context, Alberta produced about 11 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas in 2024, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator.

Proposed route map of the Yellowhead Pipeline. Map courtesy ATCO

The Yellowhead Pipeline will boost deliveries to the greater Edmonton area as demand continues to grow for power generation, manufacturing, petrochemical processing and residential use.

Industrial customers have reserved 90 per cent of the pipeline’s capacity to meet their future needs.

This includes Dow Chemical, which plans to build an $8.9-billion net-zero ethylene processing facility in Fort Saskatchewan, Heidelberg Materials’ Edmonton facility that aims to be the world’s first full-scale cement plant equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and McCain Foods, which requires more natural gas for a planned expansion of its French fry factory in Coaldale.

Prosperity driver

Edmonton Global CEO Malcolm Bruce described the Yellowhead Pipeline as a “visionary” infrastructure project in his letter of support to the AUC.

“The [project] will create jobs, enable billions in new investment and drive Alberta’s hydrogen roadmap and natural gas vision and strategy.”

ATCO’s projections show the pipeline will generate substantial economic benefits. The company estimates that during construction, it will support 12,000 jobs and contribute $1.6 billion per year to Alberta’s economy.

Once in operation, the pipeline is expected to support 23,700 jobs per year and add $3.9 billion annually to Alberta’s GDP.

For Sturgeon County, the project also provides much-needed certainty that natural gas will be available for the $30 billion in new industrial investments the region is hoping to attract in the coming years.

Future plans

The municipality is already home to major operations including the NWR Sturgeon Refinery and Nutrien fertilizer plant, both of which capture carbon dioxide emissions that are transported through the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line for deep underground storage near Clive, Alberta.

Hnatiw said future development may include hydrogen production with CCS, petrochemical processing, gas-fired power plants and large-scale data centres.

“With our operations running near capacity right now, this new pipeline helps alleviate the uncertainty around gas supplies for industrial developers,” Hnatiw said.

The county’s industrial goals are inextricably tied to ensuring its farming sector continues to flourish, she said.

“Eighty per cent of our land base is agricultural, but it only accounts for one per cent of our budget as far as taxes go, so we need our industrial residents to support our rural way of life,” she said.

“We don’t want people to have to leave our community to make a living. We want a future that is full of opportunity, and one that is also sustainable for the families that produce our food, our fuel, and all the other value-added products we can provide.”

ATCO’s next step is to file for AUC approval to build the pipeline later this year. The company expects construction to begin in 2026.

Continue Reading

Trending

X