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Trump says no deal with Canada if it recognizes Palestinian state

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President Donald Trump warned late Wednesday that Canada’s recognition of a Palestinian state could derail trade negotiations with the United States. The message came after Canadian Premier Mark Carney pledged to join France and the UK in backing statehood at the UN in September.

Key Details:

  • Trump posted on Truth Social: “Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh’ Canada!!!”
  • Canada’s decision comes while Hamas continues to hold at least 50 Israeli hostages, with no defined borders or functioning government for a Palestinian state.
  • The U.S. and Canada are currently in sensitive trade talks ahead of an August 1 tariff deadline, which Carney has described as “intense.”

Diving Deeper:

President Donald Trump issued a sharp rebuke to Canada on Wednesday night, threatening to pull back on trade negotiations if the country proceeds with plans to recognize Palestinian statehood at the United Nations General Assembly this September.

The warning came in a Truth Social post following Canadian Premier Mark Carney’s announcement that Ottawa would join France and the United Kingdom in backing a Palestinian state. “Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine,” Trump wrote. “That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh’ Canada!!!”

Trump has long criticized Western moves to legitimize Palestinian statehood during ongoing violence in the region, calling such efforts a “reward for Hamas.” Palestinian terrorists launched a war against Israel last year, and Hamas is still believed to be holding at least 50 Israeli hostages in Gaza — including 20 reported to be alive.

Critics, including the families of the hostages, argue that recognizing Palestinian statehood while Hamas remains in control and hostages remain in captivity amounts to incentivizing terrorism. There are also practical hurdles to statehood, with no recognized borders and both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority widely seen as authoritarian regimes.

Up to this point, Trump had not taken retaliatory action against allies who pushed for Palestinian recognition during the conflict. But his post Wednesday signals a tougher stance as the U.S. navigates high-stakes trade negotiations with Canada. Carney himself has acknowledged the talks are “intense,” especially as an August 1 deadline approaches for potential tariffs.

Trump’s message was clear: any support for a Palestinian state — particularly while Hamas is holding hostages and violence continues — will carry consequences, including economic ones.

Business

Trump’s long-promised “reciprocal tariff” regime is no longer a threat — it’s the new world order.

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The world woke up Friday to Trump’s tariff world order — with a rate-modifying executive order enforcing the terms of Liberation Day, imposing tariffs up to 41% on countries that failed to cut a deal with the United States.

Key Details:

  • The executive order builds on Trump’s April Liberation Day proclamation, which declared chronic U.S. trade deficits a national emergency and imposed ad valorem tariffs on nearly 70 countries.
  • Thursday’s follow-up order modifies tariff levels, effective seven days after signing, with full penalties up to 41% now locked in for countries that failed to reach meaningful trade or security agreements with the U.S.
  • Transshipped goods — products routed through third countries to evade tariffs — will be hit with a flat 40% duty and no possibility for leniency. A blacklist of violators will be published every six months.

Diving Deeper:

President Donald Trump formalized a new phase of his Liberation Day trade strategy on Thursday, signing an executive order that rewrites tariff rates and tightens enforcement across the global economy. With this action, Trump’s long-promised “reciprocal tariff” regime is no longer a threat — it’s the new world order.

The executive order, issued from the White House Thursday, amends the original April declaration that framed persistent U.S. trade deficits as a national emergency. That earlier order imposed broad-based duties on nearly 70 countries. Thursday’s update locks in or adjusts those penalties depending on each country’s progress — or lack thereof — in negotiations with the United States.

For countries that reached or are nearing “meaningful trade and security commitments” with the United States, temporary rates will remain in place as agreements are finalized. For the rest, full penalties apply — with tariffs ranging from 10% to 41%, as outlined in Annex I of the order.

The European Union receives a tailored formula: if a product’s current U.S. tariff is under 15%, the new combined rate will be pushed to that floor. Goods already above 15% will not face additional penalties.

But the most aggressive provision of the order targets a growing tactic of tariff evasion — transshipping. Under Section 3, goods that are determined by Customs and Border Protection to have been rerouted through third countries to avoid tariffs will face an automatic 40% penalty. Mitigation or reduction of that duty is explicitly barred under the order.

Trump’s team will also release a biannual blacklist of known violators — naming countries and facilities involved in circumvention schemes. This list will inform public procurement, national security reviews, and corporate due diligence.

The order empowers the Departments of Commerce, Homeland Security, Treasury, and the U.S. Trade Representative to implement the policy, issue regulations, and take “all necessary actions” to enforce it.

Countries that failed to reach a deal by the deadline now face the consequences. Those still negotiating have little time left. And for businesses and governments around the world, the message is clear: American leverage is back — and it comes with a price tag.

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Business

Canada’s postal service would benefit from liberalization, privatization, new MEI publication shows

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From the Montreal Economic Institute

  • Canada Post has accumulated $3.8 billion in losses since 2018.
  • The Crown corporation is receiving a $1-billion taxpayer loan to stay afloat in 2025-2026.
  • Privatization should include an employee share ownership plan.

Privatizing Canada Post and opening up the sector to competition would result in better services and lower prices for Canadians, shows a new publication released by the MEI.

“Canadians are held hostage by a postal system that is inefficient, strike-prone, and, increasingly, financially non-viable,” says Vincent Geloso, senior economist at the MEI and co-author of the report. “We should follow the lead of European countries like Germany that have liberalized and privatized their postal services, with excellent results.”

Canada Post has a federal monopoly on regular letter mail, making it the only entity legally permitted to deliver non-express letters.

The Crown corporation has run deficits for seven straight years, accumulating over $3.6 billion in losses over the past decade.

Meanwhile, letter volume in Canada has fallen from 5.5 billion letters in 2006 to 2 billion in 2024, a 64 per cent decline.

Canada Post’s market share in parcel delivery has also cratered, falling from 62 per cent in 2019 to 24 per cent in 2024, as private competitors have captured more of the growing market.

In December 2024, more than 55,000 Canada Post workers went on a 32-day strike that ground mail and parcel delivery to a halt causing a backlog of nearly 10 million packages, impacting individuals and businesses alike. The strike reportedly cost small businesses an estimated $1.6 billion.

This past May, another union issued a strike notice and began a nationwide overtime ban, again obstructing delivery volumes. Currently, Canada Post employees are voting on the corporation’s latest offer; if the vote fails, there are fears that another strike would ensue.

“There is an inherent problem with monopolies,” explains Mr. Geloso. “No competition means no incentive to be efficient or innovate, which means higher prices by way of increased costs, and consumers are left with no alternative.”

In 1989, Germany decided to open up its market to a limited amount of competition, and by 2008, the sector was fully liberalized.

Privatization of Deutsche Post started in 2000, and currently, the government holds only a small minority stake in the former monopoly.

Today, over 15,000 firms offer some sort of postal service in Germany. The country’s mail service generally outperforms those of other European countries.

In Canada, the cost of sending a letter is 50 per cent higher today than it was in 1989 (inflation-adjusted).

In Germany, postage prices have fallen by 10 per cent over the same period (after accounting for inflation).

The MEI recommends the following steps to kickstart a two-year process of privatizing Canada Post:

  • Offer employees shares: This would give workers a stake in the company’s success and help prevent insiders from taking advantage during the transition (i.e., avoid asset-stripping).
  • Avoid regulatory capture: A swift reform process would reduce the risk of special interest groups lobbying regulators to lock in unfair advantages in the law.

“Canada Post’s inability to adapt to the changing market shows that it won’t get better on its own; it needs a massive overhaul,” says Mr. Geloso. “Canadians are paying a lot for a second-rate service; Germany showed us how we can turn this around.”

The MEI Economic Note is available here.

* * *

The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.

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