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Trudeau’s Gone So Why Does Everything Still Feel Broken?

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From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Lee Harding

Lee Harding skewers Ottawa’s déjà vu politics: Trump is tariffing Canada into submission again, Carney’s Liberals are flailing, and Poilievre’s back—like none of early 2025’s drama ever happened.

The Liberals swapped leaders, but not direction, and the country is paying for it

New year, new prime minister—same failures. Mark Carney’s Ottawa looks just as weak and directionless as it did under Justin Trudeau, and Canadians are paying the price.

Despite the drama of 2025—Trudeau’s resignation, Carney’s rise to Liberal leader, an election fought on promises of competence, and Pierre Poilievre’s shock defeat—Canada has ended up right back where it started.

Poilievre is already headed back to the House after a resounding byelection win in Battle River–Crowfoot on Aug. 18, pulling nearly 80 per cent of the vote. But what’s changed? Carney’s shine has already worn off, and fewer Canadians than ever believe he can handle the country’s domestic or international challenges. Less than four months into office, the renewed Liberal government has left Canada weaker abroad and poorer at home.

The Carney honeymoon ended fast. Days after his victory, he posed alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, mimicking Trump’s signature “thumbs up.” Trump took credit for Carney’s win and revived his “51st state” rhetoric. Carney’s team scrambled to downplay the moment, but the damage was done. This was the man who promised to stand up to Trump, not stand beside him.

Worse, Canadians soon learned that Carney had quietly removed most tariffs on American goods during the campaign, a politically clever move that stripped Canada of any leverage. As a result, Trump’s administration steamrolled Ottawa with 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and copper, and 35 per cent on goods not covered by CUSMA.

While Canada floundered, global competitors moved in. The U.K., European Union, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines all inked new trade deals with Washington. Once seen as a preferred partner, Canada is now on the outside looking in.

Diplomatic humiliation followed. On the very day Poilievre won his byelection, Trump convened NATO allies to discuss a peace framework for Ukraine and Russia—Canada wasn’t invited. Once proud of our role as an honest broker and middle-power influencer, we’re now irrelevant.

Carney’s much-hyped economic expertise has also fallen flat. He appeared willing to govern without a federal budget—an act of arrogance or incompetence, take your pick. After backlash, he promised a fall budget, but there’s still no credible plan to rein in deficits or restore confidence. Even Air Canada workers ignored his calls to return to work.

A long-overdue defence spending pledge of $8 billion has been mostly swallowed by decarbonization programs, doing little for national security. Meanwhile, the government’s environmental agenda continues to punish the economy. Slashing the consumer carbon tax to zero was a headline grabber, but industrial carbon taxes and regulatory burdens continue to rise, choking off investment, productivity and competitiveness.

Western alienation is deepening. The Carney government’s shortcut for approving energy projects, fast-tracking anything “in the national interest,” politicizes resource development and creates uncertainty. Carney has even hinted that Indigenous groups may gain veto power, further muddying the investment landscape.

The economy is stagnant. Canada’s international stature is diminished. The West remains ignored. For many Canadians, Carney looks like nothing more than Trudeau 2.0.

Incredibly, we’re right back where we were when the year began. Trump is blocking our exports. The prime minister can’t stop him. And Pierre Poilievre is back in Parliament, sharpening his attacks.

The only real difference? The NDP doesn’t have a leader. But once it does, it will be eager to bring down the government and try to rebuild its own credibility. Political change is coming—but not just yet.

Lee Harding is a research fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

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The Grocery Greed Myth

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The Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh charges of “greedflation” collapses under scrutiny.

“It’s not okay that our biggest grocery stores are making record profits while Canadians are struggling to put food on the table.” —PM Justin Trudeau, September 13, 2023.

A couple of days after the above statement, the then-prime minister and his government continued a campaign to blame rising food prices on grocery retailers.

The line Justin Trudeau delivered in September 2023, triggered a week of political theatre. It also handed his innovation minister, François-Philippe Champagne, a ready-made role: defender of the common shopper against supposed corporate greed. The grocery price problem would be fixed by Thanksgiving that year. That was two years ago. Remember the promise?

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But as Ian Madsen of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy has shown, the numbers tell a different story. Canada’s major grocers have not been posting “record profits.” They have been inching forward in a highly competitive, capital-intensive sector. Madsen’s analysis of industry profit margins shows this clearly.

Take Loblaw. Its EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) averaged 11.2 per cent over the three years ending 2024. That is up slightly from 10 per cent pre-COVID. Empire grew from 3.9 to 7.6 per cent. Metro went from 7.6 to 9.6. These are steady trends, not windfalls. As Madsen rightly points out, margins like these often reflect consolidation, automation, and long-term investment.

Meanwhile, inflation tells its own story. From March 2020 to March 2024, Canada’s money supply rose by 36 per cent. Consumer prices climbed about 20 per cent in the same window. That disparity suggests grocers helped absorb inflationary pressure rather than drive it. The Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh charges of “greedflation” collapses under scrutiny.

Yet Ottawa pressed ahead with its chosen solution: the Grocery Code of Conduct. It was crafted in the wake of pandemic disruptions and billed as a tool for fairness. In practice, it is a voluntary framework with no enforcement and no teeth. The dispute resolution process will not function until 2026. Key terms remain undefined. Suppliers are told they can expect “reasonable substantiation” for sudden changes in demand. They are not told what that means. But food inflation remains.

This ambiguity helps no one. Large suppliers will continue to settle matters privately. Small ones, facing the threat of lost shelf space, may feel forced to absorb losses quietly. As Madsen observes, the Code is unlikely to change much for those it claims to protect.

What it does serve is a narrative. It lets the government appear responsive while avoiding accountability. It shifts attention away from the structural causes of price increases: central bank expansion, regulatory overload, and federal spending. Instead of owning the crisis, the state points to a scapegoat.

This method is not new. The Trudeau government, of which Carney’s is a continuation, has always shown a tendency to favour symbolism over substance. Its approach to identity politics follows the same pattern. Policies are announced with fanfare, dissent is painted as bigotry, and inconvenient facts are set aside.

The Grocery Code fits this model. It is not a policy grounded in need or economic logic. It is a ritual. It gives the illusion of action. It casts grocers as villains. It gives the impression to the uncaring public that the government is “providing solutions,” and that “it has their backs.” It flatters the state.

Madsen’s work cuts through that illusion. It reminds us that grocery margins are modest, inflation was monetary, and the public is being sold a story.

Canadians deserve better than fables, but they keep voting for the same folks. They don’t think to think that they deserve a government that governs within its limits; a government that accept its role in the crises it helped cause, and restores the conditions for genuine economic freedom. The Grocery Code is not a step in that direction. It was always a distraction, wrapped in a moral pose.

And like most moral poses in Ottawa, it leaves the facts behind.

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Tax filing announcement shows consultation was a sham

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By Franco Terrazzano

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is criticizing Prime Minister Mark Carney for announcing that the government is expanding automatic tax filing within hours of the government’s consultation ending.

“There’s no way government bureaucrats pulled an all-nighter reading through thousands of submissions and survey responses before sending Carney out to make an announcement on automatic tax filing the next morning,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Asking Canadians for their opinion and then ignoring them isn’t a good look for Carney, it makes it look like the government is holding sham consultations.”

The government of Canada announced consultations on automatic tax filing so Canadians could give the government “broad input through an online questionnaire.”

The government’s consultation ended on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025.

Hours after the consultation ended, Carney today announced the government would expand automatic tax filing.

The CRA is already one of the largest arms of the federal government with 52,499 bureaucrats.

The CRA added 13,015 employees since 2016 – a 33 per cent increase. For comparison, America’s Internal Revenue Service has 90,516 bureaucrats. The CRA has one bureaucrat for every 800 Canadians. The IRS has one bureaucrat for every 3,800 Americans.

“The CRA can barely answer the phone, so Carney shouldn’t be giving those bureaucrats more busy work to do,” Terrazzano said. “The CRA is a bloated mess, and Carney should be cutting the cost of bureaucracy not scheming up ways to give the bureaucracy more power over taxpayers.”

The CRA only answered about 36 per cent of the 53.5 million calls it received between March 2016 and March 2017, according to a 2017 Auditor General report. When Canadians were able to get the CRA on the phone, call centre agents gave inaccurate information about 30 per cent of the time.

“The CRA acting as both tax collector and tax filer is a serious conflict of interest,” Terrazzano said. “Trusting the taxman to do your tax return is like trusting your dog to protect your burger.

“Carney should stop the CRA power grab and instead cut taxes and simplify the tax code.”

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