Business
Three ‘hard truths’ about Canada’s trade
From the Fraser Institute
Author: Jock Finlayson
In Canada’s case, a small number of sectors reliably generate significant trade surpluses, which help finance large trade deficits incurred in other parts of our economy.
Canada is an “open” economy that depends on cross-border flows of trade, investment and data/knowledge to maintain high living standards. To pay our way in a very competitive world, Canadians must produce and sell goods and services to customers in other countries. These exports furnish the means to pay for the vast array of imports that contribute to the well-being of Canadian households and allow our businesses to operate efficiently and grow by accessing bigger markets.
In 2022, Canada exported $779 billion of goods to other countries, along with $161 billion of services, for a total of $940 billion. The services category includes a wide array of commercial services including professional, scientific, technical, digital and financial, as well as transportation services and international tourism (when non-Canadian visitors travel to spend money here).
About three-quarters of Canada’s exports are destined for a single market—the United States, whose economy has steadily expanded in size over time to reach some US$25 trillion of gross domestic product today. Canada also sources the bulk of our imports from the U.S.
The centrality of the American market to Canada’s economic prosperity is the first “hard truth” about Canada’s trade, a point explored in a recent paper by Steve Globerman. Despite periodic efforts to diversify Canada’s trade and commercial links over the last 50 years, Canada remains as closely tied to the American economy today as we were in the 1990s. There’s little reason to believe the Trudeau government’s recently unveiled “Indo-Pacific” strategy will change the situation. Proximity, a common language and business culture, and the impact of extensive and unusually deep business and personal ties all serve to reinforce the American-centric character of Canada’s trade. It follows that the U.S. should continue to figure prominently in the trade promotion and investment attraction activities of Canadian governments.
A second “hard truth” about Canada’s trade is the outsized place of natural resource-based products in the export mix. The first table below breaks down Canada’s goods and services exports in 2022 into the main groupings.

Added together, energy, non-metallic minerals and related products, metal ores, forest products and agri-food comprise almost half of the country’s total international exports of goods and services combined. Energy alone supplied 27 per cent of Canada’s merchandise exports (and 23 per cent of total exports) last year, generating a remarkable $212 billion in export-driven income for Canadian businesses, workers and governments.
Within the energy basket, oil and oil-based products dominate, providing about three-quarters of energy-based export revenues. Contrary to innumerable speeches and press releases issued by the current federal government, the energy share is likely to rise in the next several years, as LNG production from British Columbia comes on-line and Western Canadian oil exports increase following the completion of pipeline expansion projects.
The final “hard truth” is closely related to the second but carries a more nuanced message. Ultimately, every country will have a ledger showing the trade surpluses and trade deficits across its various industries. In Canada’s case, a small number of sectors reliably generate significant trade surpluses, which help finance large trade deficits incurred in other parts of our economy.
The second table provides a snapshot of Canada’s trade “balances”—the mix of deficits and surpluses by broad industry category.

The story is a fairly simple one; positive trade balances in the energy, mining, forestry and agri-food sectors offset chronic—and in some cases very sizable—trade deficits in consumer goods, chemicals and plastics, motor vehicles/parts, and industrial and electronic goods. We also run a smallish deficit in our overall services trade.
The trade data are informative. Among other things, they tell us where Canada has, in the language of economists, a “comparative advantage” in the global context. For a market-based economy, a pattern of positive trade balances is evidence that it very likely enjoys a comparative advantage in the industries which report consistent trade surpluses. Armed with such information, smart policymakers should strive to create and sustain an attractive business and investment climate for the industries that produce trade surpluses. Unfortunately, this is a lesson that today’s federal government in distant Ottawa has struggled to digest.
Business
Feds pull the plug on small business grants to Minnesota after massive fraud reports
The Small Business Administration is moving to freeze grant money flowing into Minnesota after explosive allegations of large-scale fraud tied to state oversight failures, with SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler signaling an immediate crackdown following recent independent reporting.
In a series of comments shared publicly by conservative commentator Benny Johnson, Loeffler said the agency is “cutting off and clawing back” SBA grants to the state while investigators dig deeper into what she described as a rapidly expanding fraud network.
Johnson wrote that Loeffler told him she was “disgusted and sickened” after reviewing footage from YouTuber Nick Shirley, whose on-the-ground reporting in Minnesota highlighted what he said were sham daycare and learning centers collecting millions in public funds despite showing little or no sign of legitimate operations.
According to Johnson, Loeffler blamed the situation on Democrat Gov. Tim Walz, accusing his administration of refusing to enforce basic rules governing small businesses and allowing fraud to flourish unchecked.
Johnson said Loeffler told him SBA investigators were able to identify roughly half a billion dollars in suspected fraud within days of focusing on Minnesota, calling the operation an “industrial-scale crime ring” that ripped off American taxpayers.
“Pending further review, SBA is freezing all grant funding to the state in order to stop the rampant waste of taxpayer dollars and uncover the full depth of fraud,” Loeffler said, according to Johnson’s account, adding that the total scope of the scheme remains unknown and could reach into the billions.
The controversy gained national traction after Shirley posted video of himself visiting multiple facilities, including a South Minneapolis site known as the Quality Learning Center, which he reported was approved for federal aid for up to 99 children but appeared inactive during normal business hours.
The center’s sign, Shirley noted, even misspelled the word “learning” as “learing.”
In the footage, a woman inside the building is heard shouting “Don’t open up,” falsely claiming Shirley and his colleague were Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.
After the video circulated, Rep. Tom Emmer, a Republican, publicly demanded answers from Walz, questioning how such facilities were approved for millions in taxpayer funding.
Shirley’s reporting followed earlier investigations, including a November report by City Journal alleging that members of Minnesota’s Somali community had sent millions of dollars in stolen taxpayer funds overseas, with some of that money reportedly ending up in the hands of Al-Shabaab, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization.
While Walz’s administration has insisted it takes fraud seriously, the SBA’s decision to halt grant funding marks one of the most aggressive federal responses yet, underscoring how rapidly a local scandal has escalated into a national reckoning over oversight, enforcement, and accountability in Minnesota.
Business
Stripped and shipped: Patel pushes denaturalization, deportation in Minnesota fraud
FBI Director Kash Patel issued a blunt warning over the weekend as federal investigators continue unraveling a sprawling fraud operation centered in Minnesota, saying the hundreds of millions already uncovered represent “just the tip of a very large iceberg.”
In a lengthy statement posted to social media, Patel said the Federal Bureau of Investigation had quietly surged agents and investigative resources into the state well before the scandal gained traction online. That effort, he said, led to the takedown of an estimated $250 million fraud scheme that stole federal food aid intended for vulnerable children during the COVID pandemic.
According to Patel, the investigation exposed a network of sham vendors, shell companies, and large-scale money laundering operations tied to the Feeding Our Future case. Defendants named by the FBI include Abdiwahab Ahmed Mohamud, Ahmed Ali, Hussein Farah, Abdullahe Nur Jesow, Asha Farhan Hassan, Ousman Camara, and Abdirashid Bixi Dool, each charged with offenses ranging from wire fraud to conspiracy and money laundering.
Patel also said Abdimajid Mohamed Nur and others were charged in a separate attempt to bribe a juror with $120,000 in cash. He noted that several related cases have already resulted in guilty pleas, prison sentences of up to 10 years, and nearly $48 million in restitution orders.
Despite those outcomes, Patel warned the case is far from finished.
“The FBI believes this is just the tip of a very large iceberg,” he said, adding that investigators will continue following the money and that the probe remains ongoing. Patel further confirmed that many of those convicted are being referred to immigration authorities for possible denaturalization and deportation proceedings where legally applicable.
The renewed focus follows a viral video circulated by independent journalist Nick Shirley, which appeared to show multiple childcare and learning centers operating as empty or nonfunctional storefronts. The footage sparked immediate backlash from Republicans, including Vice President JD Vance.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer accused Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz of sitting idle while massive sums were stolen from taxpayers. Walz addressed the allegations during a November press conference, before the full scope of the fraud became public, saying the scandal “undermines trust in government” and threatens programs meant to help vulnerable residents.
“If you’re committing fraud, no matter where you come from or what you believe, you are going to go to jail,” Walz said at the time.
Authorities say the alleged schemes date back to at least 2015, beginning with overbilling Minnesota’s Child Care Assistance Program and later expanding into Medicaid-funded disability and housing programs. One such housing initiative, aimed at helping seniors and disabled residents secure stable housing, was shut down earlier this year after officials cited what they described as large-scale fraud.
The fallout has already reached the federal level. Last month, President Trump announced the suspension of Temporary Protected Status for Somali nationals, arguing that Minnesota had become a hub for organized welfare fraud and money laundering activity.
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