Energy
This Canada Day, Celebrate Energy Renewal

From the National Citizens Coalition
By Geoff Russ
As we head towards Canada Day, there is much to be proud of.
So many great accomplishments and victories have been earned by Canadians over the years, and all of it is inspiring.
Throughout the life of this country, Canadians were able to construct grand projects like continent-spanning railways, long-winding highways for the Olympic Games, and grand hydroelectric dams. It all helped to transform this land into a great and prosperous country.
This year’s July 1 will be one filled with appreciation for past glories, for that is just about all that we still have.
Canada’s present and future are respectively grim and dim, so thank God this country has memories to give people the temporary high of nostalgia.
Those who can remember the days of rich job prospects, empowering salaries, and receiving the keys to the first home they purchased – those would be the lucky ones.
For the millions of young, disillusioned Canadians, who are still early in their careers and reckoning with the ills borne from the Trudeau era, one can excuse them for not wholly revelling in this national holiday.
Being able to easily choose aspects of this country to celebrate has become a sort of privilege and marker of social status. Youth are rarely the most enthusiastic cohort when it comes to love of country.
Canada is hardly a fair or free place if you are under 40 years of age.
For the past decade, the federal government and its accomplices in the provinces have run this country into the ground. It will require heavy lifting to pull it out and get it back on the road.
For the youngest and present working generations to grow into genuine patriotism, instead of degenerating into permanent apathy, it requires a government and state that gives them a roadmap to the good life. That cannot be achieved by the top-down redistribution of wealth; that is not just a regurgitated libertarian talking point, but an observation of recent history.
If Liberal social democracy had paid true dividends, the last decade’s mammoth expansion of government welfare programs on borrowed money would have yielded a healthy and growing middle class.
Instead, Canada’s middle class is one of the most economically trapped and sclerotic in the developed world, with just enough to not qualify for government assistance, but far less than they need to be financially secure.
Canadian leaders, and particularly the Liberals, cannot afford to keep doubling down on the failed model of taxing and spending a dwindling supply of wealth, and covering the shortfalls with massive borrowing.
It does not have to be this way.
There is the opportunity, the appetite, and the means to revive Canada’s place as an economic leader. Hundreds of billions of dollars in value lie beneath our feet. Massive deposits of critical minerals remain in the ground, with just six types of them valued at over $500 billion.
Hundreds of billions more in oil is still lying unused, instead of being sold and shipped to our democratic allies in global markets, alongside the minerals needed to mass-produce modern technologies.
One of the worst misleading stereotypes about the resource industry is that it only creates jobs out in the bush or the oilpatch. In reality, the offices of Vancouver and Calgary start filling up with new young hires as mining, oil, and forestry grow.
For evidence, look no further than the downturn in oil markets that hollowed out downtown Calgary in 2015, leaving entire towers nearly empty. Boom times for energy turned the city into a Mecca for enterprising young men and women.
The fact that those offices have not been refilled since is an indictment of bad decisions by federal and provincial governments that stymied the cultivation of our resources, and thus delayed our return to a booming economy.
New markets are emerging in Asia and Europe which will eagerly buy oil, gas, and minerals from the first friendly supplier who picks up the phone. That can be Canada, so long as our government has the will and commitment.
Our mineral and energy sectors can become powerhouses that create thousands upon thousands of well-paid, white-and-blue-collar jobs, and generate historic, generational wealth.
Canada may have a fresh prime minister in Mark Carney, but the Trudeau era will not end until he is pushed to turn the page on the Liberal obsession with controlling the economy, instead of letting it naturally breathe.
It is more important than ever to hold their feet to the fire and keep up the pressure so that the Liberals cannot avoid doing the right thing this time. Then, and perhaps only then, will future Canada Days be celebrations of the present, not the past.
Resources alone cannot transform the Canadian economy, but they can be the biggest driver of change, and what turns this country into an ambitious one that builds and is again a place of prosperity.
Geoff Russ is a policy manager in the resource sector and contributor to several national publications across Canada, the United States, and Australia. Read his work in the National Post, the Spectator Australia, and Modern Age.
There’s no solving for Canada’s cost of living crisis — or tariff crisis — without growing Canada’s resource economy, and restrictions on our energy sector have proven themselves to be just another tax on working families. Help us advocate on your behalf, and on behalf of our Great Canadian energy producers and innovators.
SIGN your name to support the NCC’s Energy Affordability Now campaign, or chip in with a generous donation.
Alberta
Canadian Oil Sands Production Expected to Reach All-time Highs this Year Despite Lower Oil Prices

From Energy Now
S&P Global Commodity Insights has raised its 10-year production outlook for the Canadian oil sands. The latest forecast expects oil sands production to reach a record annual average production of 3.5 million b/d in 2025 (5% higher than 2024) and exceed 3.9 million b/d by 2030—half a million barrels per day higher than 2024. The 2030 projection is 100,000 barrels per day (or nearly 3%) higher than the previous outlook.
The new forecast, produced by the S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue, is the fourth consecutive upward revision to the annual outlook. Despite a lower oil price environment, the analysis attributes the increased projection to favorable economics, as producers continue to focus on maximizing existing assets through investments in optimization and efficiency.
While large up-front, out-of-pocket expenditures over multiple years are required to bring online new oil sands projects, once completed, projects enjoy relatively low breakeven prices.
S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that the 2025 half-cycle break-even for oil sands production ranged from US$18/b to US$45/b, on a WTI basis, with the overall average break-even being approximately US$27/b.*
“The increased trajectory for Canadian oil sands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers’ continued emphasis on optimization—and the favorable economics that underpin such operations,” said Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “More than 3.8 million barrels per day of existing installed capacity was brought online from 2001 and 2017. This large resource base provides ample room for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, decrease downtime and increase throughput.”
The potential for additional upside exists given the nature of optimization projects, which often result from learning by doing or emerge organically, the analysis says.
“Many companies are likely to proceed with optimizations even in more challenging price environments because they often contribute to efficiency gains,” said Celina Hwang, Director, Crude Oil Markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “This dynamic adds to the resiliency of oil sands production and its ability to grow through periods of price volatility.”
The outlook continues to expect oil sands production to enter a plateau later this decade. However, this is also expected to occur at a higher level of production than previously estimated. The new forecast expects oil sands production to be 3.7 million b/d in 2035—100,000 b/d higher than the previous outlook.
Export capacity—already a concern in recent years—is a source of downside risk now that even more production growth is expected. Without further incremental pipeline capacity, export constraints have the potential to re-emerge as early as next year, the analysis says.
“While a lower price path in 2025 and the potential for pipeline export constraints are downside risks to this outlook, the oil sands have proven able to withstand extreme price volatility in the past,” said Hwang. “The low break-even costs for existing projects and producers’ ability to manage challenging situations in the past support the resilience of this outlook.”
* Half-cycle breakeven cost includes operating cost, the cost to purchase diluent (if needed), as well as an adjustment to enable a comparison to WTI—specifically, the cost of transport to Cushing, OK and quality differential between heavy and light oil.
About S&P Global Commodity Insights
At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value.
We’re a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights and the other business divisions of S&P Global.
S&P Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en.
SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights
Business
Federal government should finally cut Trudeau-era red tape

From the Fraser Institute
If Prime Minister Carney really wants to show he’s committed to “Building Canada” he’d ceremoniously defenestrate Bill C-48, scap the cap on Canadian Oil and Gas related greehhouse gas emissions, and ax the so-called Clean Electricity Regulations
As pretty much everyone knows, Canada has a building problem. Whether it’s provincial building of housing or infrastructure, or national building of highways, pipelines or energy production facilities, Canada can seemingly not get things built no matter how many companies and investors propose projects (or how many newspaper opinion columns or public opinion polls shows that people want things built).
The Carney government appears to recognize this problem and recently introduced Bill C-5. Of course, appearances can be deceiving. Superficially, a lot of what’s in the proposed bill sounds good: facilitating free trade and labour mobility inter-provincially, and ostensibly streamlining government’s regulatory powers to facilitate the timely building of projects deemed to be in Canada’s national interests. Who could be against that?
Per the government, the “Bill seeks to get projects in the national interest built by focusing on a small number of executable projects and shifting the focus of federal reviews from ‘whether’ to build these projects to ‘how’ to best advance them.” Again, looks great, but even a cursory reading by a legal layman reveals the fact that, in reality, little has changed in regard to the approval of major building projects in Canada. Just as it is now, under the new regime, the prime minister’s office (and designees elsewhere in government) ultimately have carte blanche in deciding whether or not projects of significance can be built in Canada, under what timeline, and based on whatever criteria they deem appropriate.
All that is better than nothing, of course, but words (particularly political words) are cheap and actions more valuable. If Prime Minister Carney really wants to show he’s committed to “Building Canada” he’d ceremoniously defenestrate Bill C-48 (a.k.a. the “Tanker Ban Bill”), which came into effect last year under the Trudeau government and changed tanker regulations off British Columbia’s northern coast, torpedoing any prospects of building oil export pipelines on Canada’s west coast.
He could also scrap the cap on Canadian oil and gas-related greenhouse gas emissions (introduced by the Trudeau government in 2024) and regulations (also introduced in 2024) for methane emissions in the oil and gas sector, both of which will almost inevitably raise costs and curtail production.
Finally, the prime minister could ax the so-called “Clean Electricity Regulations” that will likely drive electricity rates through the roof while ushering in an age of less-reliable electricity supply and less building of conventional energy-generation from natural gas, a fuel far more reliable than Canada’s fickle winds and often-tepid sunlight. By driving up energy costs across Canada and through the entire chain of production and service economies, these regulations (again, enacted by the Trudeau government) will make it more expensive to build anything anywhere in Canada.
Prime Minister Carney has made some nice noises seemingly recognizing that Canada has a building problem, particularly with regard to energy projects, and Bill C-5 makes equally nice (yet ill-defined) noises about regulatory reform in the energy and natural resource sectors. But Canada doesn’t have a shortage of nebulous government pronouncements; it has an overdose of regulatory restrictions preventing building in Canada. He should show real seriousness and eliminate the raft of Trudeau-era red tape stifling growth and development in Canada.
And sooner is better than later. Canada’s biggest economic competitors (not only the United States) are not sitting on their red-taped hands watching their economies decline.
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