News release from Project Confederation

Canada’s recent federal election has left many Canadians uncertain about the future.

With the Liberals back in power, the old Ottawa-centric mindset hasn’t disappeared.

But the ground is shifting.

At Project Confederation, we believe this is a pivotal moment.

Across the country, provinces are making moves – some bold, others subtle – to assert their jurisdiction, secure their economic futures, and push back against federal overreach.

From new trade corridors to critical minerals strategies to court battles over emissions caps, the fight for a stronger, freer Confederation is alive and evolving.

Clearly, the calls for real reform – for a rebalancing of powers between Ottawa and the provinces – aren’t going away.

If anything, the chances of significant changes have improved.

But, if the provinces want change, they’re going to have to lead it.

Which is why now is the perfect time to take stock of where each province stands.

So, let’s take a look at the State of Confederation in 2025, breaking down the positions each province has taken since the election, and highlighting the progress and problems we see in 2025 and beyond:

British Columbia

BC Premier David Eby has outlined several key priorities for the province now that the election campaign is over.

First, he emphasized the importance of removing interprovincial trade barriers, with BC already working on legislation to allow unilateral recognition of other provinces’ standards.

He also highlighted support for the softwood lumber industry, diversifying trade markets, and accelerating natural resource development.

Eby called on Ottawa to ensure fair treatment of BC by ensuring that federal programs and funding are distributed equitably across provinces, particularly comparing BC’s lack of transfer payments with those of other provinces.

Additionally, Eby expressed dissatisfaction with the unequal distribution of federal funds and criticized the current system for its lack of transparency and fairness.

In terms of energy projects, Eby’s government has tabled Bill 15, legislation designed to fast-track infrastructure and clean energy projects in British Columbia, but he’s also said projects won’t get fast-tracked without First Nations’ ownership.

Alberta

Alberta is taking bold steps to assert its rights and push for a more equitable deal with Ottawa.

In a recent address, Premier Danielle Smith announced the need for an “Alberta Accord” that would seek a guarantee of access to tidewater for energy exports, the repeal overreaching federal policies such as the clean electricity regulations and the oil and gas production cap, and demand equalization payments that reflect Alberta’s contributions to the Canadian economy.

Premier Smith’s address also acknowledged the growing movement for Alberta’s independence, recognizing that the province may explore the possibility of separation if Ottawa continues to ignore its demands.

Smith’s government has recently lowered the signature threshold for citizen-initiated referendums, potentially setting the stage for a referendum on separation in 2026 if enough signatures are gathered.

By opening the door for this vote, Alberta is sending a clear message to Ottawa: give the province a real deal or risk facing a more drastic path.

To ensure that Alberta’s voices are heard, Premier Smith announced the Alberta Next panel, a province-wide engagement initiative designed to give citizens the opportunity to share their frustrations and ideas for the province’s future.

This panel will host town halls and public consultations, with the possibility that the most popular proposals could make their way onto a province-wide referendum ballot in 2026.

Saskatchewan

Premier Scott Moe has been vocal about the need to remove trade barriers, including US and Chinese tariffs.

He released a list of 10 policy changes he says the federal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney must make to reset its relationship with Saskatchewan.

Key demands include negotiating to lift Chinese tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports like canola and peas, which were imposed in retaliation for Canada putting tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Moe also wants Ottawa to scrap the federal industrial carbon tax and clean electricity regulations, reform bail laws and increase penalties for drug offences, expand pipeline and export infrastructure, and reduce federal red tape that he says infringes on provincial jurisdiction.

He emphasized that quick federal action on these issues would signal a more positive relationship than under the previous Trudeau government.

Premier Moe’s government has also been active in pushing back against federal policies that it believes undermine Saskatchewan’s energy sector.

In 2022, the province convened an Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal to evaluate the federal Impact Assessment Act and the oil and gas emissions cap, both of which were rejected as detrimental to Saskatchewan’s energy growth, and these remain contentious.

Manitoba

Premier Wab Kinew of Manitoba recently wrote to the federal government highlighting some key “nation-building” projects that the province wants federal support for.

The first project, the One Canada Trade Corridor, aims to enhance trade through the Port of Churchill and expand Canada’s energy corridors.

Kinew also called for joint investment in the Prairie Agriculture Innovation and Export Diversification project to help Western farmers access new markets through innovation centers.

The Canada’s Trucking Corridor project seeks to twin the Trans-Canada Highway through Manitoba, improving trade and road safety.

Kinew also requested federal investment in northern Manitoba’s infrastructure to support the development of Critical Minerals.

While many of these proposals amount to pitches for federal funding, it’s still good to see support for these sorts of projects from a provincial government.

Manitoba has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ontario to reduce interprovincial trade barriers and boost economic cooperation.

The agreement focuses on harmonizing regulations, improving labour mobility, and recognizing professional credentials more easily – particularly for health-care workers and tradespeople – allowing them to begin working while their qualifications are processed.

Ontario

Ontario is taking steps to break down interprovincial trade barriers, including introducing the Protect Ontario through Free Trade within Canada Act, 2025.

Premier Doug Ford, along with New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt and Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston, announced agreements to enhance trade between their provinces.

Ford and Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew have also signed a memorandum of understanding to reduce interprovincial trade and regulatory barriers.

Key initiatives include harmonizing regulations, improving direct-to-consumer alcohol sales, and facilitating the recognition of professional credentials to allow healthcare professionals and tradespeople to work across provincial borders while their qualifications are processed.

Ford has also called for the repeal of Bill C-69 and voiced support for building new pipelines across Canada, though with a caveat that he’ll only support them if they use Ontario-made steel.

Ford criticized past political inaction on pipelines, arguing it has made Canada too dependent on the United States for energy security.

Quebec

Quebec has long positioned itself as a defender of provincial jurisdiction, particularly when it comes to language, culture, and immigration.

But, at least at the federal level, the Bloc Québécois has taken a firm stance against any project to expand a pipeline across the country, pledging to block such initiatives in Parliament.

Provincially, however, the picture is a bit more nuanced.

Recently, Premier François Legault expressed renewed openness to pipeline projects, particularly a potential route through northern Quebec to the port of Sept-Îles, citing shifting public attitudes due to Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

He argued that Quebecers are increasingly supportive of alternative export routes for Alberta oil to bypass US control and reach European markets.

The Quebec government has signalled it may reconsider energy projects like LNG Quebec and Energy East, indicating they are open to reviewing such proposals based on their merits.

A recent Québec Solidaire motion in the National Assembly, which called on the provincial government to oppose any pipeline development on Quebec soil, was defeated with opposition from both the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Quebec Liberals.

While Québec Solidaire and the Parti Québécois framed pipelines as environmental threats linked to fossil fuels, the Quebec Liberals argued that pipelines are simply a mode of transport and could be used for non-fossil materials like hydrogen or salt water.

Legault emphasized the need to balance environmental concerns with economic priorities, noting that any project would still undergo environmental assessment.

Quebec is also taking some strange – but still positive – steps to reduce interprovincial trade barriers by withdrawing at least five of its exemptions to the Canadian Free Trade Agreement.

These changes will make it easier for individuals to register racehorses, become funeral directors, or work as real estate brokers in Quebec without meeting residency or office requirements.

Additionally, board members of Quebec’s ferry authority will no longer need to live in the province.

The provincial government may remove more exemptions in the future as part of a broader effort to encourage internal trade.

New Brunswick

New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt took a more literal approach to promoting interprovincial trade by mailing a selection of local New Brunswick products to other premiers across Canada.

Holt has also signed trade and labour mobility agreements with Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador, with similar deals in progress with Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan.

Her government is also working with Atlantic premiers to create a regional free-trade zone.

Unfortunately, key protectionist policies remain in place in New Brunswick – Holt has avoided tackling major restrictions in sectors like forestry and seafood.

For example, Crown wood must still be sold to local mills, shielding the province’s largest industry from outside competition.

On seafood, the message is a little more positive.

Current rules don’t force products to be processed in New Brunswick, but an exemption still exists that would allow future governments to impose such a requirement.

Holt says she’ll remove that exemption – but only for provinces that do the same, which many, like Newfoundland and Labrador, have refused to do – at least for now.

Prince Edward Island

Prince Edward Island has introduced the Interprovincial Trade & Mobility Act, aimed at eliminating trade and labour mobility barriers with other provinces.

Premier Rob Lantz presented the bill in the legislature, following a similar initiative in Nova Scotia, with PEI expected to be the first province to reciprocate.

The bill proposes accepting provincial inspections and standards for goods from participating jurisdictions and setting up expedited licensing for regulated professions, with a 10-business-day turnaround time for certifications.

The legislation, which will only apply to jurisdictions that reciprocate, aims to foster collaboration between provinces and boost the economy by making the workforce more accessible.

However, it will not apply to regulated health professionals or lawyers.

Nova Scotia

Premier Tim Houston introduced the Free Trade and Mobility within Canada Act back in February, well before the federal election.

The bill allows goods and services from provinces or territories with similar legislation to be treated equally in Nova Scotia, eliminating redundant fees and testing.

It also enables certified professionals from those jurisdictions to work in Nova Scotia without additional licensing.

However, the bill excludes Canada’s supply management system.

Nova Scotia also has some gripes with the federal government.

The Province is taking Ottawa to court over who should pay to upgrade the dikes protecting the Isthmus of Chignecto, the land link between Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

The Province argues that Ottawa bears full responsibility for the $650 million project because the infrastructure protects federally regulated trade and communications links, including highways, railways, and power lines.

The federal government has agreed to cover only half the cost, claiming the dikes primarily serve agricultural land, a shared jurisdiction.

Houston is also refocusing his government’s agenda on natural resource development to address potential revenue threats from US tariffs, slowing population growth, and uncertain federal transfers.

He suggested reconsidering long-standing bans on uranium mining, fracking, and oil and gas exploration on Georges Bank, arguing that excessive restrictions have hindered prosperity.

In a letter to caucus members, he criticized past governments for lacking the courage to act and pledged to reverse sector-wide bans in favour of more balanced policymaking.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Newfoundland and Labrador is also unhappy with the current equalization program.

They argue that it shortchanges smaller provinces, particularly in the Atlantic region.

The Province says that the program fails to account for unique challenges such as the high cost of delivering services to remote, sparsely populated areas and penalizes resource-rich provinces like Newfoundland for developing offshore oil.

Newfoundland and Labrador wants fairer distribution that reflects the actual needs of all provinces, rather than perpetuating a system that disproportionately benefits the larger ones.

They are currently challenging the federal government’s equalization formula in court, after the Trudeau Liberals extended the current formula through 2029 without addressing the Province’s concerns.

We hope you’ve appreciated this summary of the State of Confederation in 2025.

The path to a stronger, freer, and more balanced Confederation isn’t going to be charted in Ottawa – it’s going to be led by the provinces and demanded by the people.

But that only happens if we keep up the pressure.

At Project Confederation, we’re working every day to hold governments accountable, push for structural reform, and empower citizens like you to fight for a better deal for your province.

We’re building momentum – province by province – but we can’t do it alone.

If you believe in a Canada where provinces are respected, where local priorities come first, and where Ottawa doesn’t get the final say on everything, please consider making a donation today:

Let’s make Confederation work – the way it was meant to.

Regards,

– The Project Confederation Team