This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Rashid Husain Syed

OPEC+ output hike could sink prices, blow an even bigger hole in Alberta’s budget and drag Canada’s economy down with it

OPEC and its allies are flooding the global oil market again, betting that regaining lost market share is worth the risk of triggering a price collapse.

On Sept. 7, eight of its leading members agreed to boost production by 137,000 barrels per day beginning in October. That move, taken more than a year ahead of schedule, marks the start of a second major unwind of previous output cuts, even as warnings of a supply glut grow. OPEC+, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, coordinates oil production targets in an effort to influence global pricing.

This isn’t oil politics in a vacuum. It’s a direct blow to Alberta’s finances, and a growing threat to Canada’s economic stability.

Canada’s broader economy depends heavily on a strong oil and gas sector, but no province is more directly reliant on resource royalties than Alberta, where oil revenues fund everything from hospitals to schools.

The province is already forecasting a $6.5-billion deficit by spring. A further slide in oil prices would deepen that gap, threatening everything from vital programs to jobs. Every drop in the benchmark West Texas Intermediate price, currently averaging around US$64, is estimated to wipe out another $750 million in annual revenue.

When Alberta’s finances falter, the ripple effects spread across the country. Equalization transfers from Ottawa to have-not provinces decline. Private investment dries up. Energy-sector jobs vanish not just in Alberta, but in supplier and service industries nationwide. Even the Canadian dollar takes a hit, reflecting reduced confidence in one of the country’s key economic engines. When Alberta stumbles, Canada’s broader economic momentum slows with it.

The timing couldn’t be crueller. October marks the end of the summer driving season, typically a lull for fuel demand. Yet extra supply is about to hit a market already leaning bearish. Oil prices have dropped roughly 15 per cent this year; Brent crude is treading just above US$65, still well beneath April’s lows.

But OPEC+ isn’t alone in raising the taps. Non-OPEC producers in Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway are all increasing production. The International Energy Agency warns global supply could exceed demand by as much as 500,000 barrels per day.

The market is bracing for a sustained price war. Alberta is staring down the barrel.

OPEC+ claims it’s playing the long game to reclaim market share. But gambling on long-term gains at the cost of short-term pain is reckless, especially for Alberta. The province faces immediate financial consequences: revenue losses, tougher budget decisions and diminished policy flexibility.

To make matters worse, U.S. forecasts are underwhelming, with an unexpected 2.4-million-barrel build in inventories. U.S. production remains at record highs above 13.5 million barrels per day, and refinery margins are shrinking. The signal is clear: demand isn’t coming back fast enough to absorb growing supply.

OPEC+ may think it’s posturing strategically. But for Canada, starting with Alberta, the fallout is real and immediate. It’s not just a market turn. It’s a warning blast. And the consequences? Jobs lost, public services cut and fiscal strain for months ahead.

Canada can’t direct OPEC. But it can brace for the fallout—and plan accordingly.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Elmira Aliakbari

The Carney government has promised to make Canada the world’s leading “energy superpower,” but so far, the government has failed to reduce regulatory hurdles and uncertainty in energy development. It’s time to reverse the damaging federal policies that have held back Canada’s energy industry for more than a decade.

The long list of Trudeau-era policies includes Bill C-69 (the “no pipelines act”), which introduced subjective criteria including “gender implications” into the evaluation of major energy projects, an oil tanker ban on the west coast that limits energy exports to Asian markets, an arbitrary cap on oil and gas GHG emissions that will require production cuts while most of our international peers ramp up production, and major new regulations for methane emissions in the oil and gas sector, which will increase costs for the industry.

These policies stifle Canada’s energy sector. Investment in the oil and gas sector plummeted over the last decade, from $84.0 billion in 2014 to $37.2 billion in 2023 (inflation adjusted)—a 56 per cent drop.

And that should come as no surprise. According to a 2023 survey of oil and gas investors, 68 per cent of respondents said uncertainty over environmental regulations deters investment in Canada compared to only 41 per cent of respondents for the United States. Moreover, 59 per cent said the cost of regulatory compliance deters investment compared to 42 per cent in the U.S., and 54 per cent said Canada’s regulatory duplication and inconsistencies deter investment compared to only 34 per cent for the U.S. This divergence between Canada and the U.S. in the eyes of investors has likely widened following President Trump’s re-election and his administration’s massive regulatory reforms to strengthen U.S. energy development.

Perhaps it’s also unsurprising, then, that business investment (measured on a per-worker basis, a key indicator of productivity) in Canada has dropped from $18,600 in 2014 to about $14,000 in 2024 (inflation-adjusted) while its continued to increase in the U.S.

Again, these Trudeau-era policies diminish Canada’s competitiveness, deter investment and ultimately hurt the economic wellbeing of Canadians. According to a Deloitte report commissioned by the Alberta government, the federal emissions cap alone may cost the Canadian economy more than $280 billion from 2030 to 2040 resulting in lower wages, job losses and a decline in tax revenue.

The Carney government pledged to turn things around. But rather than reduce regulatory hurdles and uncertainty in energy development, it’s introduced new legislation (which became law in June) that grants the federal cabinet the authority to prioritize and expedite projects it deems to be in the “national interest.” Put differently, the government chose to grant cabinet the power to pick winners and losers based on vague criteria and priorities rather than undoing damaging regulations that would give all businesses the chance to succeed.

It’s been four months since Mark Carney and the Liberal Party won the election. With Parliament set to reconvene this month, it’s time to set a new course and finally undo Trudeau’s damaging energy policies.