Energy
Stop The Cap On Oil And Gas
From Project Confederation
With the United Nations’s 28th Climate Change Conference in Dubai generating headlines, we all knew it was only a matter of time before Canada’s radical eco-activist Environment Minister did something stupid.
And here it is, from Steven Guilbeault himself:
“The Government of Canada’s plan to cap and reduce emissions from Canada’s largest emitting sector is ambitious, but practical. It considers the global demand for oil and gas — and the importance of the sector in Canada’s economy — and sets a limit that is strict, but achievable.”
That’s right, folks – the Oil and Gas emissions/production cap is finally upon us.
We launched a campaign last year, around this same time, warning that this was coming.
Now, we know just how bad it actually is.
If you already agree that we should Stop The Cap On Oil And Gas,
click here to sign the petition, but if you want more details, read on!
The framework that’s being proposed by the federal government would cap emissions at 35% – 38% below 2019 levels.
How exactly would this be done?
What will it cost?
No one knows.
The federal government just says that they’ll release the details via regulation sometime next year.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is livid, issuing a statement:
“[The announcement is an] intentional attack by the federal government on the economy of Alberta and the financial well-being of millions of Albertans and Canadians.”
“Justin Trudeau and his eco-extremist Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, are risking hundreds of billions of investments in Alberta’s and Canada’s economy.”
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe echoed Smith:
“[The cap] will have serious economic impacts on Canadians and limit our sustainable Canadian energy products from providing heat and electricity to the world.”
“Saskatchewan will protect our constitutional right to build our economy in accordance with the priorities of Saskatchewan families and businesses.”
The federal government has been in legal hot water lately over constitutional overreaches – with the Supreme Court deeming the Impact Assessment Act unconstitutional in October and the Federal Court ruling the plastics ban unconstitutional in November.
Ottawa has consistently ignored provincial jurisdiction on a wide range of issues, and their inability to stay in their constitutional lane has been a major source of tension with the provinces.
This emissions cap is just the latest example, as natural resource development is guaranteed to be the sole jurisdiction of the provinces in the Constitution of Canada.
As such, the emissions cap is clearly unconstitutional – but even if it wasn’t, it would be a terrible policy anyway.
First, it’s an admission by the government that the carbon tax – their signature climate change policy – is not working.
The entire purpose of the tax was to be a “market mechanism” to reduce emissions, and yet now they’re admitting that they need even more regulations to reduce emissions.
This cap is a direct and deliberate attack on western Canada’s oil and gas industry.
Remember – the cap will not apply to any industry other than oil and gas.
Ontario’s automotive industry, Quebec’s cement industry, and other high-emitting industries in other parts of Canada are not having their emissions capped.
The cap also excludes refineries – even though that is part of the oil and gas industry – because many of Canada’s refineries happen to be in regions of the country that mostly vote Liberal.
If the federal government were actually concerned about the environment, they would implement policies designed to reduce emissions across all industries and all regions of Canada.
Instead, the hypocritical and political nature of Ottawa’s climate agenda reveals their true intentions and undermines the credibility of their entire plan.
That’s why we’re renewing our campaign calling on the federal government to back off, respect the Constitution, and stop infringing on provincial jurisdiction.
If you agree, please sign our petition to Stop The Cap On Oil And Gas:
Josh Andrus
Executive Director
Project Confederation
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
Alberta oil sands projects poised to grow on lower costs, strong reserves
As geopolitical uncertainty ripples through global energy markets, a new report says Alberta’s oil sands sector is positioned to grow thanks to its lower costs.
Enverus Intelligence Research’s annual Oil Sands Play Fundamentals forecasts producers will boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) by the end of this decade through expansions of current operations.
“Existing oil sands projects deliver some of the lowest-breakeven oil in North America at WTI prices lower than $50 U.S. dollars,” said Trevor Rix, a director with the Calgary-based research firm, a subsidiary of Enverus which is headquartered in Texas with operations in Europe and Asia.
Alberta’s oil sands currently produce about 3.4 million bbls/d. Individual companies have disclosed combined proven reserves of about 30 billion barrels, or more than 20 years of current production.
A recent sector-wide reserves analysis by McDaniel & Associates found the oil sands holds about 167 billion barrels of reserves, compared to about 20 billion barrels in Texas.
While trade tensions and sustained oil price declines may marginally slow oil sands growth in the short term, most projects have already had significant capital invested and can withstand some volatility.
Cenovus Energy’s Christina Lake oil sands project. Photo courtesy Cenovus Energy
“While it takes a large amount of out-of-pocket capital to start an oil sands operation, they are very cost effective after that initial investment,” said veteran S&P Global analyst Kevin Birn.
“Optimization,” where companies tweak existing operations for more efficient output, has dominated oil sands growth for the past eight years, he said. These efforts have also resulted in lower cost structures.
“That’s largely shielded the oil sands from some of the inflationary costs we’ve seen in other upstream production,” Birn said.
Added pipeline capacity through expansion of the Trans Mountain system and Enbridge’s Mainline have added an incentive to expand production, Rix said.
The increased production will also spur growth in regions of western Canada, including the Montney and Duvernay, which Enverus analysts previously highlighted as increasingly crucial to meet rising worldwide energy demand.
“Increased oil sands production will see demand increase for condensate, which is used as diluent to ship bitumen by pipeline, which has positive implications for growth in drilling in liquids-rich regions such as the Montney and Duvernay,” Rix said.
“If Ottawa had it’s way Albertans would be left to freeze in the dark”
The ineffective federal net-zero electricity regulations will not reduce emissions or benefit Albertans but will increase costs and lead to supply shortages.
The risk of power outages during a hot summer or the depths of harsh winter cold snaps, are not unrealistic outcomes if these regulations are implemented. According to the Alberta Electric System Operator’s analysis, the regulations in question would make Alberta’s electricity system more than 100 times less reliable than the province’s supply adequacy standard. Albertans expect their electricity to remain affordable and reliable, but implementation of these regulations could increase costs by a staggering 35 per cent.
Canada’s constitution is clear. Provinces have exclusive jurisdiction over the development, conservation and management of sites and facilities in the province for the generation and production of electrical energy. That is why Alberta’s government is referring the constitutionality of the federal government’s recent net-zero electricity regulations to the Court of Appeal of Alberta.
“The federal government refused to work collaboratively or listen to Canadians while developing these regulations. The results are ineffective, unachievable and irresponsible, and place Albertans’ livelihoods – and more importantly, lives – at significant risk. Our government will not accept unconstitutional net-zero regulations that leave Albertans vulnerable to blackouts in the middle of summer and winter when they need electricity the most.”
“The introduction of the Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta by the federal government is another example of dangerous federal overreach. These regulations will create unpredictable power outages in the months when Albertans need reliable energy the most. They will also cause power prices to soar in Alberta, which will hit our vulnerable the hardest.”
Finalized in December 2024, the federal electricity regulations impose strict carbon limits on fossil fuel power, in an attempt to force a net-zero grid, an unachievable target given current technology and infrastructure. The reliance on unproven technologies makes it almost impossible to operate natural gas plants without costly upgrades, threatening investment, grid reliability, and Alberta’s energy security.
“Ottawa’s electricity regulations will leave Albertans in the dark. They aren’t about reducing emissions – they are unconstitutional, ideological activist policies based on standards that can’t be met and technology that doesn’t exist. It will drive away investment and punish businesses, provinces and families for using natural gas for reliable, dispatchable power. We will not put families at risk from safety and affordability impacts – rationing power during the coldest days of the year – and we will continue to stand up for Albertans.”
“Albertans depend on electricity to provide for their families, power their businesses and pursue their dreams. The federal government’s Clean Electricity Regulations threaten both the affordability and reliability of our power grid, and we will not stand by as these regulations put the well-being of Albertans at risk.”
Related information
- Conference Board of Canada socio-economic Impacts of Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan – (April 2025)
- Alberta Electric System Operator’s position on Canadian Energy Regulations
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