Alberta
‘Significant change’ in oil sands emissions growth while sector nears $1 trillion in spending
In situ oil sands project in northern Alberta. Photo courtesy MEG Energy
From the Canadian Energy Centre
‘The oil sands are Canada’s winning lottery ticket’
As Alberta’s oil sands sector reaches a major economic milestone, a new report shows that emissions growth continues to slow.
There is a clear “structural break” for the industry where production growth is beginning to rise faster than emissions growth, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. While last year’s oil sands production was nine per cent higher than in 2019, total emissions rose by just three per cent.
“It’s not driven solely by slower production growth because production growth has continued. This is a notable, significant change in oil sands emissions,” said Kevin Birn, head of S&P Global’s Centre for Emissions Excellence.
Birn said that in many cases oil sands growth is coming from optimization, where for example instead of companies building new equipment to generate more steam to inject underground, they have found ways to produce more oil with the steam they already have.
Emissions per barrel, or so-called “emissions intensity” is now 28 per cent lower than it was in 2009.
Earlier this year, S&P Global raised its oil sands production outlook, now projecting the sector will reach 3.8 million barrels per day by 2030, compared to 3.2 million barrels per day in 2023.
Analysts continue to expect total oil sands emissions to peak in the next couple of years, absent the federal government’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap.
“Certainly, there’s potential for that to occur later if there’s more volume than we anticipate, but it’s also the time when we start to see the potential for large-scale decarbonizations to emerge towards the end of this decade,” Birn said.
Meanwhile, before the end of this year the oil sands sector will hit approximately $1 trillion of cumulative spending over the last 25 years, according to a joint report by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and Pathways Alliance.
That is, not profits or dividends, but investment in operations, building new facilities, and government payments including taxes and royalties.
“The oilsands are Canada’s winning lottery ticket,” wrote MLI’s Heather Exner-Pirot and Pathways’ Bryan Remillard.
They noted that oil sands producers have paid more than $186 billion in royalties and taxes to Canadian governments, representing more than the last five years of Canadian defense spending.
“Far from just an Alberta success story, the oilsands are a quintessentially Canadian sector. More than 2,300 companies outside of Alberta have had direct business with the oilsands, including over 1,300 in Ontario and almost 600 in Quebec,” wrote Exner-Pirot and Remillard.
“That juggernaut could keep Canada’s economy prosperous for many more decades, providing the feedstock for chemicals and carbon-based materials whenever global fuel consumption starts to decline.”
That is, unless companies are forced to cut production, which credible analysis has found will happen with Ottawa’s emissions cap – well over one million barrels per day by 2030, which Exner-Pirot and Remillard said would have to come almost entirely from Canada’s exports to the United States.
“If companies are forced to cut their production, they won’t be able to afford to aggressively cut emissions. Nor will they be able to make other investments to maximize and sustain the value of this resource.”
Alberta
B.C. would benefit from new pipeline but bad policy stands in the way
From the Fraser Institute
By Julio Mejía and Elmira Aliakbari
Bill C-69 (a.k.a. the “no pipelines act”) has added massive uncertainty to the project approval process, requiring proponents to meet vague criteria that go far beyond any sensible environmental concerns—for example, assessing any project’s impact on the “intersection of sex and gender with other identity factors.”
In case you haven’t heard, the Alberta government plans to submit a proposal to the federal government to build an oil pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s north coast.
But B.C. Premier Eby dismissed the idea, calling it a project imported from U.S. politics and pursued “at the expense of British Columbia and Canada’s economy.” He’s simply wrong. A new pipeline wouldn’t come at the expense of B.C. or Canada’s economy—it would strengthen both. In fact, particularly during the age of Trump, provinces should seek greater cooperation and avoid erecting policy barriers that discourage private investment and restrict trade and market access.
The United States remains the main destination for Canada’s leading exports, oil and natural gas. In 2024, nearly 96 per cent of oil exports and virtually all natural gas exports went to our southern neighbour. In light of President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian energy and other goods, it’s long past time to diversify our trade and find new export markets.
Given that most of Canada’s oil and gas is landlocked in the Prairies, pipelines to coastal terminals are the only realistic way to reach overseas markets. After the completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) project in May 2024, which transports crude oil from Alberta to B.C. and opened access to Asian markets, exports to non-U.S. destinations increased by almost 60 per cent. This new global reach strengthens Canada’s leverage in trade negotiations with Washington, as it enables Canada to sell its energy to markets beyond the U.S.
Yet trade is just one piece of the broader economic impact. In its first year of operation, the TMX expansion generated $13.6 billion in additional revenue for the economy, including $2.0 billion in extra tax revenues for the federal government. By 2043, TMX operations will contribute a projected $9.2 billion to Canada’s economic output, $3.7 billion in wages, and support the equivalent of more than 36,000 fulltime jobs. And B.C. stands to gain the most, with $4.3 billion added to its economic output, nearly $1 billion in wages, and close to 9,000 new jobs. With all due respect to Premier Eby, this is good news for B.C. workers and the provincial economy.
In contrast, cancelling pipelines has come at a real cost to B.C. and Canada’s economy. When the Trudeau government scrapped the already-approved Northern Gateway project, Canada lost an opportunity to increase the volume of oil transported from Alberta to B.C. and diversify its trading partners. Meanwhile, according to the Canadian Energy Centre, B.C. lost out on nearly 8,000 jobs a year (or 224,344 jobs in 29 years) and more than $11 billion in provincial revenues from 2019 to 2048 (inflation-adjusted).
Now, with the TMX set to reach full capacity by 2027/28, and Premier Eby opposing Alberta’s pipeline proposal, Canada may miss its chance to export more to global markets amid rising oil demand. And Canadians recognize this opportunity—a recent poll shows that a majority of Canadians (including 56 per cent of British Columbians) support a new oil pipeline from Alberta to B.C.
But, as others have asked, if the economic case is so strong, why has no private company stepped up to build or finance a new pipeline?
Two words—bad policy.
At the federal level, Bill C-48 effectively bans large oil tankers from loading or unloading at ports along B.C.’s northern coast, undermining the case for any new private-sector pipeline. Meanwhile, Bill C-69 (a.k.a. the “no pipelines act”) has added massive uncertainty to the project approval process, requiring proponents to meet vague criteria that go far beyond any sensible environmental concerns—for example, assessing any project’s impact on the “intersection of sex and gender with other identity factors.” And the federal cap on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions exclusively for the oil and gas sector will inevitably force a reduction in oil and gas production, again making energy projects including pipelines less attractive to investors.
Clearly, policymakers in Canada should help diversify trade, boost economic growth and promote widespread prosperity in B.C., Alberta and beyond. To achieve this goal, they should put politics aside, focus of the benefits to their constituents, and craft regulations that more thoughtfully balance environmental concerns with the need for investment and economic growth.
Alberta
Alberta introduces bill allowing province to reject international agreements
From LifeSiteNews
Under the proposed law, international treaties or accords signed by the federal government would not apply in Alberta unless approved through its own legislation.
Alberta’s Conservative government introduced a new law to protect “constitutional rights” that would allow it to essentially ignore International Agreements, including those by the World Health Organization (WHO), signed by the federal Liberal government.
The new law, Bill 1, titled International Agreements Act and introduced Thursday, according to the government, “draws a clear line: international agreements that touch on provincial areas of jurisdiction must be debated and passed into law in Alberta.”
Should the law pass, which is all but certain as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s Conservatives hold a majority government, it would mean that any international treaties or accords signed by the federal government would not apply in Alberta unless approved through its own legislation.
“As we return to the legislature, our government is focused on delivering on the mandate Albertans gave us in 2023 to stand up for this province, protect our freedoms and chart our path forward,” Smith said.
“We will defend our constitutional rights, protect our province’s interests and make sure decisions that affect Albertans are made by Albertans. The federal government stands at a crossroads. Work with us, and we’ll get things done. Overstep, and Alberta will stand its ground.”
According to the Alberta government, while the feds have the “power to enter into international agreements on behalf of Canada,” it “does not” have the “legal authority to impose its terms on provinces.”
“The International Agreements Act reinforces that principle, ensuring Alberta is not bound by obligations negotiated in Ottawa that do not align with provincial priorities,” the province said.
The new Alberta law is not without precedent. In 2000, the province of Quebec passed a similar law, allowing it to ignore international agreements unless approved by local legislators.
The Smith government did not say which current federal agreements it would ignore, but in theory, it could apply to any agreement Canada has signed with the United Nations or the WHO.
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