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Energy

OPEC Delivers Masterful Rebuke To Global Energy Agency Head

Published

3 months ago

6 minute read

 

From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By David Blackmon

Some readers will remember the infamous May 2021 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) titled ‘Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.’ The report projected a roadmap for transforming the world’s $300 trillion oil-and-coal-based energy system into one that runs on unreliable, intermittent alternatives like wind and solar.

Most educated observers viewed the report as a piece of propaganda coming from an agency then in the process of transforming itself from a historically reliable source of real data and analysis into just another advocate for the climate alarm narrative. It surprised no one when, just a few years later, Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, publicly boasted about that exact transformation as being the agency’s overt mission now.

One passage in the report’s set of recommendations immediately caught everyone’s eye due to its boldness and transparent illogic. That passage says, “There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply in our net zero pathway.”

To reinforce this stunningly absurd notion, Birol, in an interview published by the Guardian upon the study’s release, insisted that, ”If governments are serious about the climate crisis, there can be no new investments in oil, gas and coal, from now – from this year.”

It was a moment when the formerly respected agency shed a great deal of its credibility.

Making matters worse for Birol and IEA, barely a month later a spokesperson for the IEA urged OPEC to “open the spigots” to raise oil production to meet rising global demand that was outstripping the agency’s forecasts as the world recovered from the COVID-19 insanity. Three months after that, Wood MacKenzie, Rystad, and Moody’s had all issued studies directly contradicting IEA’s absurd assessment, and Birol was joining former President Joe Biden in calling for U.S. oil producers to drill more wells and produce more oil.

This sort of ill-advised posturing and self-contradiction is what happens when a scholarly enterprise consciously lurches into advocacy.

At this past week’s CERAWeek conference in Houston, Birol contradicted himself one more time, telling attendees, “I want to make it clear … there would be a need for investment, especially to address the decline in the existing fields. There is a need for oil and gas upstream investments, full stop.”

This latest impulse to respond to the next new thing surely surprised no one. But it was a bridge too far for officials at OPEC to sit by and absorb silently. In a March 13 statement posted on the OPEC website, the cartel reviewed Birol’s and IEA’s recent history of inconsistency and urged Birol to take a step back and consider the impacts it has had and will continue to have on investments for the future.

“Aside from the risk of whiplash that such severe yo-yoing between positions could cause, a serious point needs to be stressed,” OPEC writes. “The world needs unambiguous clarity on the realities of the future of supply and demand. Agencies that recognize the responsibility that comes from offering analysis of the long-term perspectives of the industry should not be shifting positions or mixing messages and narratives every couple of years on this matter, particularly ones that were founded to ensure the security of oil supplies.”

Oof. Blunt, but true. It is a dressing down that is well-deserved and long overdue.

Does Birol’s latest shift signal a recognition that the energy transition for which it has advocated has failed? It’s hard to know.

Regardless, once an agency like IEA makes a public decision to transform itself away from sterile analysis into the realm of advocacy, going back will be hard. Aside from the loss of credibility, which has only increased as Birol has lurched from one position to another and back again, such a transformation completely shifts the organization’s culture. Going back now will require time and a great deal of organizational pain.

Here, another obvious question arises: Is Fatih Birol the right person for this job? It is a question that should have arisen before the loss of so much credibility and trust. For the 32 member countries who subscribe to the agency and pay its bills, there is no time like the present to determine the answer.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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Alberta

Alberta is investing up to $50 million into new technologies to help reduce oil sands mine water

Published on June 17, 2025

By

Technology transforming tailings ponds

Alberta’s oil sands produce some of the most responsible energy in the world and have drastically reduced the amount of fresh water used per barrel. Yet, for decades, operators have been forced to store most of the water they use on site, leading to billions of litres now contained largely in tailings ponds.

Alberta is investing $50 million from the industry-funded TIER system to help develop new and improved technologies that make cleaning up oil sands mine water safer and more effective. Led by Emissions Reduction Alberta, the new Tailings Technology Challenge will help speed up work to safely reclaim the water in oil sands tailing ponds and eventually return the land for use by future generations.

“Alberta’s government is taking action by funding technologies that make treating oil sands water faster, effective and affordable. We look forward to seeing the innovative solutions that come out of this funding challenge, and once again demonstrate Alberta’s global reputation for sustainable energy development and environmental stewardship.”

Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas

“Tailings and mine water management remain among the most significant challenges facing Alberta’s energy sector. Through this challenge, we’re demonstrating our commitment to funding solutions that make water treatment and tailings remediation more affordable, scalable and effective.”

Justin Riemer, CEO, Emissions Reduction Alberta

As in other mines, the oil sands processing creates leftover water called tailings that need to be properly managed. Recently, Alberta’s Oil Sands Mine Water Steering Committee brought together industry, academics and Indigenous leaders to identify the best path forward to safely address mine water and reclaim land.

This new funding competition will support both new and improved technologies to help oil sands companies minimize freshwater use, promote responsible ways to manage mine water and reclaim mine sites. Using technology for better on-site treatment will help improve safety, reduce future clean up costs and environmental risks, and speed up the process of safely addressing mine water and restoring sites so they are ready for future use.

“Innovation has always played an instrumental role in the oil sands and continues to be an area of focus. Oil sands companies are collaborating and investing to advance environmental technologies, including many focused on mine water and tailings management. We’re excited to see this initiative, as announced today, seeking to explore technology development in an area that’s important to all Albertans.”

Kendall Dilling, president, Pathways Alliance 

Quick facts

  • All mines produce tailings. In the oil sands, tailings describe a mixture of water, sand, clay and residual bitumen that are the byproduct of the oil extraction process.
  • From 2013 to 2023, oil sands mine operations reduced the amount of fresh water used per barrel by 28 per cent. Recycled water use increased by 51 per cent over that same period.
  • The Tailings Technology Challenge is open to oil sands operators and technology providers until Sept. 24.
  • The Tailings Technology Challenge will invest in scale-up, pilot, demonstration and first-of-kind commercial technologies and solutions to reduce and manage fluid tailings and the treatment of oil sands mine water.
  • Eligible technologies include both engineered and natural solutions that treat tailings to improve water quality and mine process water.
  • Successful applicants can receive up to $15 million per project, with a minimum funding request of $1 million.
  • Oil sands operators are responsible for site management and reclamation, while ongoing research continues to inform and refine best practices to support effective policy and regulatory outcomes.

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conflict

Middle East clash sends oil prices soaring

Published on June 17, 2025

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This article supplied by Troy Media.

Troy Media By Rashid Husain Syed

The Israel-Iran conflict just flipped the script on falling oil prices, pushing them up fast, and that spike could hit your wallet at the pump

Oil prices are no longer being driven by supply and demand. The sudden escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran has shattered market stability, reversing earlier forecasts and injecting dangerous uncertainty into the global energy system.

What just days ago looked like a steady decline in oil prices has turned into a volatile race upward, with threats of extreme price spikes looming.

For Canadians, these shifts are more than numbers on a commodities chart. Oil is a major Canadian export, and price swings affect everything from
provincial revenues, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan, to what you pay at the pump. A sustained spike in global oil prices could also feed inflation, driving up the cost of living across the country.

Until recently, optimism over easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China had analysts projecting oil could fall below US$50 a barrel this year. Brent crude traded at US$66.82, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near US$65, with demand growth sluggish, the slowest since the pandemic.

That outlook changed dramatically when Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets and Tehran’s counterattack, including hits on Israel’s Haifa refinery, sent shockwaves through global markets. Within hours, Brent crude surged to US$74.23, and WTI climbed to US$72.98, despite later paring back overnight gains of over 13 per cent. The conflict abruptly reversed the market outlook and reintroduced a risk premium amid fears of disruption in the world’s critical oil-producing region.

Amid mounting tensions, attention has turned to the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which nearly 20 per cent of the world’s oil ows, including supplies that inuence global and
Canadian fuel prices. While Iran has not yet signalled a closure, the possibility
remains, with catastrophic implications for supply and prices if it occurs.

Analysts have adjusted forecasts accordingly. JPMorgan warns oil could hit US$120 to US$130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario involving military conflict and a disruption of shipments through the strait. Goldman Sachs estimates Brent could temporarily spike above US$90 due to a potential loss of 1.75 million barrels per day of Iranian supply over six months, partially offset by increased OPEC+ output. In a note published Friday morning, Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and his team wrote: “We estimate that Brent jumps to a peak just over US$90 a barrel but declines back to the US$60s in 2026 as Iran supply recovers. Based on our prior analysis, we estimate that oil prices may exceed US$100 a barrel in an extreme tail scenario of an extended disruption.”

Iraq’s foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, has issued a more dire warning: “The Strait of Hormuz might be closed due to the Israel-Iran confrontation, and the world markets could lose millions of barrels of oil per day in supplies. This could result in a price increase of between US$200 and US$300 per barrel.”

During a call with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, Hussein added: “If military operations between Iran and Israel continue, the global market will lose approximately five million barrels per day produced by Iraq and the Gulf states.”

Such a supply shock would worsen inflation, strain economies, and hurt both exporters and importers, including vulnerable countries like Iraq.

Despite some analysts holding to base-case forecasts in the low to mid-US$60s for 2025, that optimism now looks fragile. The oil market is being held hostage by geopolitics, sidelining fundamentals.

What happens next depends on whether the region plunges deeper into conflict or pulls back. But for now, one thing is clear: the calm is over, and oil is once again at the mercy of war.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

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