Connect with us
[the_ad id="89560"]

Economy

Number of newcomers to Canada set to drop significantly

Published

4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

Late last year, Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s population reached 41.5 million in October, up 177,000 from July 2024. Over the preceding 12 months, the population rose at a 2.3 per cent pace, indicating some deceleration from previous quarters. International migration accounts for virtually 100 per cent of the population gain. This includes a mix of permanent immigrants and large numbers of “non-permanent residents” (NPRs) most of whom are here on time-limited work or student visas.

The recent easing of population growth mainly reflects a slowdown in non-permanent immigration, after a period of increases with little apparent oversight or control by government officials. The dramatic jump in NPRs played a key role in pushing Canada’s population growth rate to near record levels in 2023 and the first half of 2024.

Amid this demographic surge, a public and political backlash developed, due to concerns that Canada’s skyrocketing population has aggravated the housing affordability and supply crisis and put significant pressure on government services and infrastructure. In addition, the softening labour market has been unable to create enough jobs to employ the torrent of newcomers, leading to a steadily higher unemployment rate over the last year.

In response, the Trudeau government belatedly announced a revised “immigration plan” intended to scale back inflows. Permanent immigration is being trimmed from 500,000 a year to less than 400,000. At the same time, the number of work and study visas will be substantially reduced. Ottawa also pledges to speed the departure of temporary immigrants whose visas have expired or will soon.

Remarkably, NPRs now comprise 7.3 per cent of the country’s population, a far higher share than in the past. The government has promised to bring this down to 5 per cent by 2027, which equates to arranging for some two million NPRs to depart when their visas expire. There are doubts that our creaking immigration and border protection machinery can deliver on these commitments. Many NPRs with expired visas may seek to stay. That said, the total number of newcomers landing in Canada is set to drop significantly.

According to the government, this will cause the country’s total population to shrink in 2025-2026, something that has rarely happened before.

Even if Ottawa falls short of hitting its revised immigration goals, a period of much lower population growth lies ahead. However, this will pose its own economic challenges. A fast-expanding population has been the dominant factor keeping Canada’s economy afloat over the last few years, as productivity—the other source of long-term economic growth—has stagnated and business investment has remained sluggish. It’s also important to recognize that per-person GDP—a broad measure of living standards—has been declining as economic growth has lagged behind Canada’s rapid population growth. Now, as the government curbs permanent immigrant numbers and sharply reduces the pool of NPRs, this impetus to economic growth will suddenly diminish.

However, Canada will continue to have high levels of immigration compared to peer jurisdictions. The lowered targets for permanent immigration—395,000 in 2025, followed by 380,000 and 365,000 in the following two years—are still above pre-pandemic benchmarks. This underscores the continued importance of immigration to Canada’s economic and political future.

Instead of obsessing about near-term targets, policymakers should think about how to ensure that immigration can advance Canada’s prosperity and provide benefits to both the existing population and those who come here.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

Before Post

Todayville is a digital media and technology company. We profile unique stories and events in our community. Register and promote your community event for free.

Follow Author

Business

Canadians love Nordic-style social programs as long as someone else pays for them

Published on

This article supplied by Troy Media.

Troy MediaBy Pat Murphy

Generous social programs come with trade-offs. Pretending otherwise is political fiction

Nordic societies fund their own benefits through taxes and cost-sharing. Canadians expect someone to foot the bill

Like Donald Trump, one of my favourite words starts with the letter “T.” But where Trump likes the word “tariff,” my choice is “trade-off.” Virtually everything in life is a trade-off, and we’d all be much better off if we instinctively understood that.

Think about it.

If you yield to the immediate pleasure of spending all your money on whatever catches your fancy, you’ll wind up broke. If you regularly enjoy drinking to excess, be prepared to pay the unpleasant price of hangovers and maybe worse. If you don’t bother to acquire some marketable skill or credential, don’t be surprised if your employment prospects are limited. If you succumb to the allure of fooling around, you may well lose your marriage. And so on.

Failing to understand trade-offs also extends into political life. Take, for instance, the current fashion for anti-capitalist democratic socialism. Pushed to explain their vision, proponents will often make reference to the Nordic countries. But they exhibit little or no understanding of how these societies actually work.

As American economist Deirdre Nansen McCloskey notes, “Sweden is pretty much as ‘capitalistic’ as is the United States. If ‘socialism’ means government ownership of the means of production, which is the classic definition, Sweden never qualified.” The central planning/government ownership model isn’t the Swedish way.

What the Nordics do have, however, is a robust social safety net. And it’s useful to look at how they pay for it.

J.P. Morgan’s Michael Cembalest is a man who knows his way around data. He puts it this way: “Copy the Nordic model if you like, but understand that it entails a lot of capitalism and pro-business policies, a lot of taxation on middle-class spending and wages, minimal reliance on corporate taxation and plenty of co-pays and deductibles in its health care system.”

For instance, take the kind of taxes that are often derided as undesirably regressive—sales taxes, social security taxes and payroll taxes. In Sweden, they account for a whopping 27 per cent of gross domestic product. And some 15 per cent of health expenditures are out of pocket.

Charles Lane—formerly with the Washington Post, now with The Free Press—is another who pulls no punches: “Nordic countries are generous, but they are not stupid. They understand there is no such thing as ‘free’ health care, and that requiring patients to have at least some skin in the game, in the form of cost-sharing, helps contain costs.”

In effect, Nordic societies have made an internal bargain. Ordinary people are prepared to fork over large chunks of their own money in return for a comprehensive social safety net. They’re not expecting the good stuff to come to them without a personal cost.

Scandinavians obviously understand the concept of trade-offs, a dimension that seems to be absent from much of the North American discussion. Instead of Nordic-style pragmatism, spending ideas on this side of the Atlantic are floated on the premise of having someone else pay. And the electorally prized middle class is to be protected at all costs.

In the aftermath of Zohran Mamdami’s New York City win, journalist Kevin Williamson had a sobering reality check: “Class warfare isn’t how they roll in Scandinavia. Oslo is a terrific place to be a billionaire—Copenhagen and Stockholm, too … what’s radically different about the Scandinavians is not how they tax the very high-income but how they tax the middle.”

Taxation propensities aside, Nordic societies are different from the United States and Canada.

Denmark, for instance, is very much a “high-trust” society, defined as a place “where interpersonal trust is relatively high and ethical values are strongly shared.” It’s often been said that it works the way it does because it’s full of Danes, which is broadly true—albeit less so than it was 40 years ago.

Denmark, though, has no interest in multiculturalism as we’ve come to know it. Although governed from the centre-left, there’s no state-sponsored focus on systemic discrimination or diversity representation. Instead, the emphasis is on social cohesion and conformity. If you want to create a society like Denmark, it helps to understand the dynamics that make it work.

Reality intrudes on all sorts of other issues. For example, there’s the way in which public discourse is disfigured on the question of climate change and the need to pursue aggressive net-zero policies.

Asked in the abstract, people are generally favourable, which is then touted as evidence of strong public support. But when subsequently asked how much they’re personally prepared to pay to accomplish these ambitious goals, the answer is often little or nothing.

If there’s one maxim we should be taught from childhood, it’s this: there are no panaceas, only trade-offs.

Troy Media columnist Pat Murphy casts a history buff’s eye at the goings-on in our world. Never cynical – well, perhaps a little bit.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

Continue Reading

Business

Higher carbon taxes in pipeline MOU are a bad deal for taxpayers

Published on

By Franco Terrazzano

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is criticizing the Memorandum of Understanding between the federal and Alberta governments for including higher carbon taxes.

“Hidden carbon taxes will make it harder for Canadian businesses to compete and will push Canadian entrepreneurs to shift production south of the border,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Politicians should not be forcing carbon taxes on Canadians with the hope that maybe one day we will get a major project built.

“Politicians should be scrapping all carbon taxes.”

The federal and Alberta governments released a memorandum of understanding. It includes an agreement that the industrial carbon tax “will ramp up to a minimum effective credit price of $130/tonne.”

“It means more than a six times increase in the industrial price on carbon,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said while speaking to the press today.

Carney previously said that by “changing the carbon tax … We are making the large companies pay for everybody.”

Leger poll shows 70 per cent of Canadians believe businesses pass most or some of the cost of the industrial carbon tax on to consumers. Meanwhile, just nine per cent believe businesses pay most of the cost.

“It doesn’t matter what politicians label their carbon taxes, all carbon taxes make life more expensive and don’t work,” Terrazzano said. “Carbon taxes on refineries make gas more expensive, carbon taxes on utilities make home heating more expensive and carbon taxes on fertilizer plants increase costs for farmers and that makes groceries more expensive.

“The hidden carbon tax on business is the worst of all worlds: Higher prices and fewer Canadian jobs.”

Continue Reading

Trending

X