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Alberta

New tax bracket among features of Alberta’s 2024 Budget

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Budget 2024: A responsible plan for a growing province

Budget 2024 is a responsible plan to strengthen health care and education, build safe communities and manage resources wisely to support a growing Alberta.

With a steady focus on fiscal responsibility and wise spending, Alberta’s government will continue to meet the needs of Albertans today and tomorrow. Budget 2024 presents three more years of balanced budgets, beginning with a forecast surplus of $367 million in 2024-25. Budget 2024 strengthens the vital services Albertans rely on and ensures those services remain sustainable over the long run.

“Alberta is growing. Budget 2024 is a plan that manages the pressures faced by a growing province today while securing the future for generations who follow. I’m proud of the choices we made in this budget that support Albertans’ top priorities and prepare our province to meet the challenges that lie ahead. Budget 2024 invests today and saves for tomorrow so we can continue to be the nation’s economic engine.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Budget 2024 is a responsible plan that puts Albertans and Alberta families first by investing in their health, education, safety, and economic growth and success. Priority investments include:

  • Health and mental health supports: $26.2 billion in operating dollars, a 4.4 per cent increase over the forecast for 2023-24.
  • Education supports: $9.3 billion in operating expenses, a 4.4 per cent increase from last year, to support record enrolment growth, hire hundreds more education staff including teachers and educational assistants, and support students with specialized needs.
  • Social supports: $2.9 billion in 2024-25 to Albertans through the Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped program, the Alberta Seniors Benefit and other social support programs, plus $355 million for Alberta Child and Family Benefit payments to help low-income families, indexing payments to inflation and providing for more eligible clients.
  • Workforce supports: An increase of $102 million over three years to add 3,200 apprenticeship classroom seats in high-demand areas and support curriculum updates to the apprenticeship program, as well as $62.4 million over three years to expand physician education, including through rural health training centres.
  • Public safety supports: $1.2 billion in 2024-25 operating expense for Public Safety and Emergency Services to support police and mental health crisis teams, deploy street-level police officers to tackle crime in Calgary and Edmonton, and provide $74 million to the Alberta Emergency Management Agency.
  • Wildfire supports: $151 million operating expense over the next three years for enhancements to the Wildfire Management Program and $55 million in capital investment for new firefighting equipment and facilities.
    • The fiscal framework provides the flexibility the government needs to respond quickly to disasters and emergencies as they arise, including a $2-billion contingency.
  • Water management and drought preparedness supports: $1.3 billion in capital funding over the next three years, including $251 million to better prepare the province for floods and droughts; $272 million for irrigation projects; and $539 million to support municipal water supply and wastewater infrastructure.
    • Budget 2024 also provides additional operating support of $19 million over three years for the Strategy to Increase Water Availability and $9 million for water management initiatives.
  • Capital supports: In total, $25 billion over three years in capital funding to build schools, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure, supporting 24,000 direct jobs and 13,000 indirect jobs across the province.

Alberta is well-positioned to remain the economic engine of Canada, with real gross domestic product forecast to grow 2.9 per cent in 2024, but the province continues to face challenges. While Alberta’s growing population is supporting economic activity and helping to ease labour shortages, it is also increasing demand for housing, health care, education and other public services. Ongoing geopolitical turmoil, uncertainty from federal government policies and high consumer prices risk dampening growth. Budget 2024 prepares Alberta to face those headwinds, with its responsible plan that invests in Albertans today and builds prosperity for tomorrow.

The fiscal framework introduced in spring 2023 requires the government to use at least half of any available surplus cash to pay down debt, freeing up more money to support Albertans. Taxpayer-supported debt will be reduced by a forecast $3.2 billion in the 2023-24 fiscal year. With the government’s commitment to paying down debt, the total taxpayer-supported debt will be $78.4 billion at the end of 2024-25.

High interest rates and the need to refinance maturing debt are driving up debt-servicing costs (the interest payments and fees on the debt) paid by taxpayers. As a result, debt-servicing costs are growing by $229 million in 2024-25 to $3.4 billion. While high interest rates on refinanced maturing debt are driving up those costs in the short term, the government’s strategic debt repayment plan will save Albertans millions in the long term.

The province is retaining more than $1 billion in investment earnings from 2023-24 in the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund. Alberta’s government will also deposit another $2 billion from the Alberta Fund, increasing the value of the Heritage Savings Trust Fund to a forecast $25 billion. This is a significant investment in the future of Albertans and the province’s main long-term savings fund

Revenue

  • In 2024-25, total revenue is estimated to be $73.5 billion, which is $2.1 billion lower than the  third-quarter forecast for 2023-24.
  • Revenue from personal income taxes is estimated to increase to $15.6 billion in 2024-25, up $365 million from the third-quarter forecast, and grow in the following two years as more people continue to move to Alberta.
  • Corporate income tax revenue is estimated at $7 billion in 2024-25, down $176 million from the third-quarter forecast for 2023-24, but rising over the next two years.
  • Non-renewable resource revenue is estimated to drop to $17.3 billion in 2024-25, from $19.4 billion forecast for 2023-24, and is forecast to pick up over the medium term.

 

Expense

  • Total expense in 2024-25 is $73.2 billion, a 3.9 per cent increase from the forecast for 2023-24.
  • Total expense is expected to be $74.6 billion in 2025-26 and $76.2 billion in 2026-27.
  • Total operating expense in 2024-25 is $60.1 billion, a 3.9 per cent increase from the 2023-24 forecast.
  • A contingency of $2 billion will help the province respond to disasters and emergencies and other in-year expense pressures, a $500-million increase from 2023-24.

 

Surplus

  • A surplus of $367 million is forecast for 2024-25.
  • Surpluses of $1.4 billion and $2.6 billion are forecast for 2024-25 and 2025-26, respectively.

 

Economic outlook

  • In 2024, real gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2.9 per cent, up from the 2.6 per cent forecast at mid-year.
  • Strong population growth is expected to continue at 3.7 per cent in the 2024 calendar year, down from 4.1 per cent growth in 2023.

 

Energy and economic assumptions, 2024-25

  • West Texas Intermediate oil (USD/bbl)                            $74
  • Western Canadian Select @ Hardisty (CND/bbl)            $76.80
  • Light-heavy differential (USD/bbl)                                    $16
  • ARP natural gas (CND/GJ)                                              $2.90
  • Conventional crude production (000s barrels/day)          507
  • Raw bitumen production (000s barrels/day)                    3,429
  • Canadian dollar exchange rate (USD¢/CDN$)                75.90
  • Interest rate (10-year Canada bonds, per cent)               3.70

 

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Alberta

Pierre Poilievre will run to represent Camrose, Stettler, Hanna, and Drumheller in Central Alberta by-election

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From LifeSiteNews

By Anthony Murdoch

Conservative MP-elect Damien Kurek announced Friday he would be willing to give up his seat as an MP so Pierre Poilievre, who lost his seat Monday, could attempt to re-join Parliament.

Conservative MP-elect Damien Kurek announced Friday he would be willing to give up his seat in a riding that saw the Conservatives easily defeat the Liberals by 46,020 votes in this past Monday’s election. Poilievre had lost his seat to his Liberal rival, a seat which he held for decades, which many saw as putting his role as leader of the party in jeopardy.

Kurek has represented the riding since 2019 and said about his decision, “It has been a tremendous honor to serve the good people of Battle River—Crowfoot.”

“After much discussion with my wife Danielle, I have decided to step aside for this Parliamentary session to allow our Conservative Party Leader to run here in a by-election,” he added.

Newly elected Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney used his first post-election press conference to say his government will unleash a “new economy” that will further “deepen” the nation’s ties to the world.

He also promised that he would “trigger” a by-election at once, saying there would be “no games” trying to prohibit Poilievre to run and win a seat in a safe Conservative riding.

Poilievre, in a statement posted to X Friday, said that it was with “humility and appreciation that I have accepted Damien Kurek’s offer to resign his seat in Battle River-Crowfoot so that I can work to earn the support of citizens there to serve them in Parliament.”

 

“Damien’s selfless act to step aside temporarily as a Member of Parliament shows his commitment to change and restoring Canada’s promise,” he noted.

Carney said a new cabinet will be sworn in on May 12.

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Alberta

‘Existing oil sands projects deliver some of the lowest-breakeven oil in North America’

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From the Canadian Energy Centre 

By Will Gibson

Alberta oil sands projects poised to grow on lower costs, strong reserves

As geopolitical uncertainty ripples through global energy markets, a new report says Alberta’s oil sands sector is positioned to grow thanks to its lower costs.

Enverus Intelligence Research’s annual Oil Sands Play Fundamentals forecasts producers will boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) by the end of this decade through expansions of current operations.

“Existing oil sands projects deliver some of the lowest-breakeven oil in North America at WTI prices lower than $50 U.S. dollars,” said Trevor Rix, a director with the Calgary-based research firm, a subsidiary of Enverus which is headquartered in Texas with operations in Europe and Asia.

Alberta’s oil sands currently produce about 3.4 million bbls/d. Individual companies have disclosed combined proven reserves of about 30 billion barrels, or more than 20 years of current production.

A recent sector-wide reserves analysis by McDaniel & Associates found the oil sands holds about 167 billion barrels of reserves, compared to about 20 billion barrels in Texas.

While trade tensions and sustained oil price declines may marginally slow oil sands growth in the short term, most projects have already had significant capital invested and can withstand some volatility.

Cenovus Energy’s Christina Lake oil sands project. Photo courtesy Cenovus Energy

“While it takes a large amount of out-of-pocket capital to start an oil sands operation, they are very cost effective after that initial investment,” said veteran S&P Global analyst Kevin Birn.

“Optimization,” where companies tweak existing operations for more efficient output, has dominated oil sands growth for the past eight years, he said. These efforts have also resulted in lower cost structures.

“That’s largely shielded the oil sands from some of the inflationary costs we’ve seen in other upstream production,” Birn said.

Added pipeline capacity through expansion of the Trans Mountain system and Enbridge’s Mainline have added an incentive to expand production, Rix said.

The increased production will also spur growth in regions of western Canada, including the Montney and Duvernay, which Enverus analysts previously highlighted as increasingly crucial to meet rising worldwide energy demand.

“Increased oil sands production will see demand increase for condensate, which is used as diluent to ship bitumen by pipeline, which has positive implications for growth in drilling in liquids-rich regions such as the Montney and Duvernay,” Rix said.

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