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New Research Further Demonstrates Problems with Surface Temperature Records and Models

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From Heartland Daily News

H. Sterling Burnett

 

By H. Sterling Burnett

It is not just that the Earth has warmed less than biased temperature measurements indicate, it has also warmed less than climate models have said it should for the amount of CO2 humans have emitted into the atmosphere.

Climate Change Weekly has long detailed the severe problems with surface temperature records, driven largely by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect compromising the integrity of the vast majority of temperature stations.

In two studies for The Heartland Institute, meteorologist Anthony Watts detailed the extent to which the surface station record in the United States is compromised by station siting that violates the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) own standards for the proper, unbiased, siting of surface stations. Watts’ initial 2009 study found that 89 percent of the surface stations in NOAA’s and the National Weather Service’s (NWS) system were poorly sited and biased. After the study, NOAA/NWS closed some of the most severely compromised, ridiculously sited stations highlighted in report. Indeed, NOAA had already recognized the problem and had prior to the first study’s release established the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN), consisting of 137 climate observing stations with the best equipment, existing in stable locations unlikely to ever be compromised by nearby development. At the same time, however, NOAA also added thousands of previously unregulated stations established and maintained by others to its system.

The larger system provides more comprehensive coverage, but the vast majority of the stations are, unsurprisingly, poorly sited. As a result, Watts’ follow up survey of NOAA’s surface station network found 96 percent of the stations used to determine U.S. average temperatures are biased upward due to poor siting. The UHI has compromised them.

How bad is the problem? As explained in an article in The Epoch Times, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that “daytime temperatures in urban areas are 1–7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than temperatures in outlying areas, and nighttime temperatures are about 2–5 degrees Fahrenheit higher.” Whereas the temperature record from the USCRN indicates little or no temperature change during its 18 years of existence, the broader network supports claims that the U.S. is warming. By the way, as detailed in previous Climate Change Weekly posts, what’s true for the United States is also true for the global surface station network and, since 2015, for the ocean temperature measurement system. Both are biased by poor siting compromising the validity of the temperatures measured.

A new report from the Heritage Foundation by Roy Spencer, Ph.D., a long-time friend of The Heartland Institute, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and currently a visiting fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment, looks at a slightly different problem with temperatures: the difference between measured warming and climate model temperature projections. It is not just that the Earth has warmed less than biased temperature measurements indicate, it has also warmed less than climate models have said it should for the amount of CO2 humans have emitted into the atmosphere.

Spencer’s research found recent warming is likely not due solely to human greenhouse gas emissions, and the warming experienced is substantially less than climate models have predicted—43 percent less, in fact. And that’s even when readings from the UHI-biased stations are included.

Spencer examined summertime temperature readings for 12 Corn Belt states in the United States. Each of the 36 models he compared to measured warming by surface stations, weather balloons, and global satellites overstated the amount of warming experienced, with most of the models off by 100 percent or more. (See the graphic, below)

Spencer is also working on a large-scale study to explain the discrepancy between urban and rural temperature stations globally, and how that plays into recent claims temperatures are setting all-time records. His preliminary data suggests measured warming is strongly correlated to population density. As cities grow, and populations increase and become more densely packed, temperatures in urban and suburban areas rise faster than in the surrounding countryside, once again confirming Watts’ conclusion that the temperature record is compromised by UHI.

If Watts’ and Spencer’s research are correct, not only do climate models “run too hot,” as even some of their proponents have been forced to admit, but the regularly reported surface station record is running too hot as well.

conflict

“Evacuate”: Netanyahu Warns Tehran as Israel Expands Strikes on Iran’s Military Command

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Sam Cooper's avatar Sam Cooper

As President Donald J. Trump opened meetings with Western leaders at the G7 summit in Alberta early Monday, multiple reports signaled a dramatic escalation in Israel’s military campaign against Iran—a broader and potentially more lethal phase of the conflict. In a televised address, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged citizens of Tehran to “evacuate,” confirming Israeli aircraft were operating deep inside Iranian airspace. Meanwhile, as U.S. military assets approach the Middle East by sea and air, Trump issued a stark warning to Iran’s leadership, cautioning against any retaliation targeting U.S. military assets in the region.

“We are telling the citizens of Tehran: evacuate,” Netanyahu reportedly declared from a secure facility beneath Tel Aviv. “We are taking action to eliminate the existential threat posed by Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program.”

Trump, speaking from Calgary hours before his closed-door G7 meetings, warned that any attack on U.S. military personnel or facilities “would be met with overwhelming force,” according to statements confirmed by Reuters.

The warnings accompanied a new wave of Israeli airstrikes early Monday targeting underground missile facilities, command bunkers, and air defense batteries across central Iran. Reuters, citing Israeli military officials, confirmed that dozens of warplanes were involved in the overnight operation, striking missile storage sites near Qom and key military complexes southwest of Tehran.

Israel also said it had struck the Tehran command center of Iran’s elite Quds Force, in what The New York Times and Reuters described as a major escalation in the deadliest confrontation between the two countries to date. Analysts note the Quds Force plays a central role in organizing the Iranian regime’s network of regional proxy militias.

Now in its fourth day, the conflict has claimed at least 224 lives in Iran and more than 20 in Israel, with thousands wounded. Israeli officials said eight people were killed in Monday’s strikes alone.

Iran’s Health Ministry reported more than 1,400 wounded, while Israeli authorities said some 600 have been injured since hostilities began.

Meanwhile, President Trump reportedly rejected an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, three U.S. officials told CBS according to BBC, in a report published Sunday. Trump reportedly told Netanyahu the plan was “not a good idea,” and the conversation is said to have taken place after Israel launched its first strike on Friday.

Unverified reports on Monday suggested that Iranian leaders may be seeking a diplomatic exit from the conflict by pledging to halt nuclear enrichment—but are also searching for a face-saving mechanism that would allow them to preserve regime legitimacy. These claims have not been confirmed by U.S. or Israeli intelligence but are circulating among regional analysts.

BBC News, citing regional correspondents and satellite imagery, reported sustained Israeli bombardments along a corridor stretching from Esfahan to the outskirts of Tehran. Footage broadcast by Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency showed thick plumes of black smoke rising from industrial zones in Kermanshah and explosions near known missile research installations long suspected by Western governments of contributing to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

Iranian authorities, while acknowledging the scale of the attacks, have characterized them as “limited,” claiming that their air defense systems intercepted many incoming missiles.

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. early warning systems detected a flurry of retaliatory missile activity inside western Iran shortly after the Israeli strikes began. However, no launches were confirmed—fueling speculation that Iran’s top leadership is seeking to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States or Israel at this stage.

Still, the risks of an expanding war remain acute. U.S. Central Command has confirmed that naval and air assets—including carrier strike groups and long-range bombers—have been repositioned to heightened readiness levels across the Persian Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean.

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Crime

Manhunt on for suspect in shooting deaths of Minnesota House speaker, husband

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Vance Luther Boelter, wanted in the murders of former Minnesota House speaker and her husband, shown in image from video Saturday.

From The Center Square

By

Second lawmaker, his wife also shot; suspect remains at large

Two Minnesota state lawmakers who are members of the Democratic-Farm-Labor Party were shot early Saturday by a person posing as a law enforcement officer just north of Minneapolis.

House Speaker Emeritus Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot and killed in what Gov. Tim Walz called a politically-motivated assassination. The suspect, identified as Vance Boelter, 57, remains at large and a manhunt is ongoing. Authorities said he no longer is in the area of the shootings.

 

Gov. Walz on Shooting of Minnesota Legislators: ‘An Unspeakable Tragedy’. 6/14/25

Source: Minnesota Department of Public Safety

“My good friend and colleague, Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, were shot and killed early this morning in what appears to be a politically-motivated assassination,” Walz said at a news conference. “Our state lost a great leader, and I lost a dearest of friends.”

State Sen. John Hoffman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, and his wife also were shot about 2 a.m., and Hortman and her husband were found about 90 minutes later.

Walz said the Hoffmans were each shot multiple times but he was hopeful for their recovery.

Law enforcement issued a shelter-in-place order for an area around Edinburgh Course that continued into the hours Saturday but has since been lifted. The suspect was seen wearing blue pants, a blue shirt, body armor, and reportedly driving a dark SUV with lights meant to make it appear like a police vehicle.

The suspect, Boelter, was appointed by Walz to serve on the Governor’s Workforce Development Board in 2019. Various media outlets reported that he is the director of Praetorian Guard Security Services, where he had access to police-like security equipment. Media outlets also reported that Boelter had a list of about 70 names in his vehicle which included the lawmakers who were shot, other lawmakers and abortion providers.

State officials are encouraging residents to not attend “No Kings” protests at the state capitol and across Minnesota. “No Kings” flyers were found in the suspect’s vehicle, law enforcement said.

FNF The scene near a shooting of Minnesota lawmakers
Law enforcement at the scene of a shooting in Minneapolis

The “suspect exploited the trust of our uniforms, what our uniforms are meant to represent,” Public Safety Commissioner Bob Jacobson said. “That betrayal is deeply disturbing to those of us who wear the badge with honor and responsibility.”

According to authorities, the gunman allegedly escaped through a back door of Hortman’s house following an exchange of gunfire with police.

President Donald Trump also released a statement on X, posted by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

“Our Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and the FBI are investigating the situation, and they will be prosecuting anyone involved to the fullest extent of the law,” Trump said. “Such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the United States of America. God Bless the great people of Minnesota, a truly great place!”

The FBI said it is offering a reward of up to $50,000 for information leading to the arrest of Boelter.

Drew Evans, superintendent of the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, said Saturday that officers arrived at the Hortman residence as part of a routine check on lawmakers in the area and exchanged gunfire with the suspect, who managed to flee.

Brooklyn Park Police Chief Burley said officers knocked on the Hortmans door and were met by what appeared to be a police officer wearing police gear, a gun, a taser and a badge. Officers and the suspect exchanged gunfire in the home before the suspect fled out the rear of the house.

Burley also said the suspect was driving an SUV that looked like a police vehicle with lights. The car was impounded, and Burley said the suspect is on foot. He  encouraged citizens to not answer the door for police officers and instructed Brooklyn Park police officers to not approach citizens alone, only in groups of two or more.

Burley said several people have been detained, and police are looking for others of interest.

Burley said a manifesto was found in the suspect’s vehicle that identified several other lawmakers. Both Hoffman and Hortman were on the list of people found in the car, Evans said.

Life-saving efforts were given to the Hortmans at the scene, Evans said.

“This was an act of targeted political violence. Peaceful discourse is the foundation of our democracy.We don’t settle our differences with violence at gun point. We must all stand against political violence,” Walz, also a DFL party member, said. “This tragic act in Minnesota should serve as a reminder that democracy and debate is a the way to settle our differences and move to a better place.”

The shootings happened seven miles away from each other, and law enforcement officials have called both shootings “targeted.”

Law enforcement was dispatched to the homes of several other state lawmakers – both Democrats and Republicans – in the Twin Cities area for protection overnight. Those lawmakers were told not to answer the door if an officer comes to it, but confirm with 911 before answering.

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuhar, D-Minn., was shocked by the news.

“This is a stunning act of violence. I’m thankful for all the law enforcement who are responding in real time. My prayers are with the Hortman and Hoffman families. Both legislators are close friends and devoted to their families and public service,” Klobuchar said on social media.

Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, called the shootings evil and asked for prayers.

“I am shocked and horrified by the evil attack that took place overnight. Please lift up in prayer the victims along with the law enforcement personal working to apprehend the perpetrator,” Demuth said on social media.

Walz activated the state emergency operations center early Saturday.

Hoffman was first elected to the Senate in 2012 and currently chairs the Human Services Committee.

Hortman was first elected in 2002 and was elected as speaker of the house in 2018. She is the current speaker emeritus.

She was also one of four DFL members to break with the party Monday and join Republicans to pass a state budget and end state health care services for noncitizens after a long and contentious special session.

The initial budget vote ended in a tie, before Hortman and three other DFL members broke ranks and joined Republicans to pass the legislation.

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