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International

New Research Further Demonstrates Problems with Surface Temperature Records and Models

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6 minute read

From Heartland Daily News

H. Sterling Burnett

 

By H. Sterling Burnett

It is not just that the Earth has warmed less than biased temperature measurements indicate, it has also warmed less than climate models have said it should for the amount of CO2 humans have emitted into the atmosphere.

Climate Change Weekly has long detailed the severe problems with surface temperature records, driven largely by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect compromising the integrity of the vast majority of temperature stations.

In two studies for The Heartland Institute, meteorologist Anthony Watts detailed the extent to which the surface station record in the United States is compromised by station siting that violates the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) own standards for the proper, unbiased, siting of surface stations. Watts’ initial 2009 study found that 89 percent of the surface stations in NOAA’s and the National Weather Service’s (NWS) system were poorly sited and biased. After the study, NOAA/NWS closed some of the most severely compromised, ridiculously sited stations highlighted in report. Indeed, NOAA had already recognized the problem and had prior to the first study’s release established the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN), consisting of 137 climate observing stations with the best equipment, existing in stable locations unlikely to ever be compromised by nearby development. At the same time, however, NOAA also added thousands of previously unregulated stations established and maintained by others to its system.

The larger system provides more comprehensive coverage, but the vast majority of the stations are, unsurprisingly, poorly sited. As a result, Watts’ follow up survey of NOAA’s surface station network found 96 percent of the stations used to determine U.S. average temperatures are biased upward due to poor siting. The UHI has compromised them.

How bad is the problem? As explained in an article in The Epoch Times, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that “daytime temperatures in urban areas are 1–7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than temperatures in outlying areas, and nighttime temperatures are about 2–5 degrees Fahrenheit higher.” Whereas the temperature record from the USCRN indicates little or no temperature change during its 18 years of existence, the broader network supports claims that the U.S. is warming. By the way, as detailed in previous Climate Change Weekly posts, what’s true for the United States is also true for the global surface station network and, since 2015, for the ocean temperature measurement system. Both are biased by poor siting compromising the validity of the temperatures measured.

A new report from the Heritage Foundation by Roy Spencer, Ph.D., a long-time friend of The Heartland Institute, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and currently a visiting fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment, looks at a slightly different problem with temperatures: the difference between measured warming and climate model temperature projections. It is not just that the Earth has warmed less than biased temperature measurements indicate, it has also warmed less than climate models have said it should for the amount of CO2 humans have emitted into the atmosphere.

Spencer’s research found recent warming is likely not due solely to human greenhouse gas emissions, and the warming experienced is substantially less than climate models have predicted—43 percent less, in fact. And that’s even when readings from the UHI-biased stations are included.

Spencer examined summertime temperature readings for 12 Corn Belt states in the United States. Each of the 36 models he compared to measured warming by surface stations, weather balloons, and global satellites overstated the amount of warming experienced, with most of the models off by 100 percent or more. (See the graphic, below)

Spencer is also working on a large-scale study to explain the discrepancy between urban and rural temperature stations globally, and how that plays into recent claims temperatures are setting all-time records. His preliminary data suggests measured warming is strongly correlated to population density. As cities grow, and populations increase and become more densely packed, temperatures in urban and suburban areas rise faster than in the surrounding countryside, once again confirming Watts’ conclusion that the temperature record is compromised by UHI.

If Watts’ and Spencer’s research are correct, not only do climate models “run too hot,” as even some of their proponents have been forced to admit, but the regularly reported surface station record is running too hot as well.

International

Afghan Ex–CIA Partner Accused in D.C. National Guard Ambush

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Sam Cooper's avatar Sam Cooper

In what FBI Director Kash Patel called a “heinous act of terrorism,” senior U.S. officials say they have opened a “coast-to-coast” investigation into the gunman who opened fire on two National Guard members just blocks from the White House — an Afghan man who had worked with a Central Intelligence Agency–backed paramilitary unit during the war in Afghanistan and later resettled in the United States under a Biden-era evacuation program. The case is likely to further energize the Trump administration’s already robust deportation drive and its expanded checks on immigration.

The suspect, identified as 29-year-old Rahmanullah Lakanwal, allegedly ambushed two members of the West Virginia National Guard outside the Farragut West Metro station around 2:15 p.m. Wednesday, in a busy commercial district a short walk from the presidential compound. Both soldiers remain in critical condition after emergency surgery, and the gunman was also wounded before being taken into custody, officials say.

Patel said his teams are investigating the attack as a “heinous act of terrorism,” which other officials have suggested could involve international terrorist networks, though they say the assailant appears to have acted alone.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe said Thursday that Lakanwal had previously worked alongside U.S. forces in Afghanistan. “He previously worked with the U.S. government, including CIA, as a member of a partner force in Kandahar,” Ratcliffe said, describing a unit that operated with American support until the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government in 2021.

According to the Department of Homeland Security and multiple law-enforcement officials cited in U.S. media reports, Lakanwal entered the United States in September 2021 under Operation Allies Welcome, the Biden administration program that airlifted tens of thousands of Afghans who had worked with U.S. forces and feared Taliban reprisals. He later applied for asylum and was granted it after President Donald Trump returned to office. Officials say he had no known criminal history and had most recently been living in Washington State, where a relative told NBC News he was working for Amazon.

NBC, citing a family member, also reported that Lakanwal served for roughly a decade in the Afghan army, including deployments in Kandahar alongside U.S. Special Forces. Those details cut to the heart of a politically explosive question in Washington — whether a man once trusted enough to fight alongside U.S. paramilitary personnel slipped through vetting as the Afghan war ended, or whether a former ally became radicalized after he arrived in America.

Officials say Wednesday’s attack unfolded in seconds. Two West Virginia Guard soldiers, part of a domestic security deployment ordered by Trump earlier this year, were on a “high-visibility patrol” near the entrance to Farragut West when a man rounded a corner, produced a handgun and opened fire without warning.

According to detailed accounts from federal officials and witnesses, the first victim — identified by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro as Sarah Beckstrom — was struck almost instantly and collapsed to the pavement. Pirro told reporters the alleged assassin was armed with a .357-caliber revolver and said that after shooting one of the victims, he “leaned over and shot him again.”

After exhausting his ammunition, the gunman allegedly grabbed the fallen soldier’s weapon and continued firing, wounding a second Guard member — Andrew Wolfe — before other troops and officers subdued him in a brief but chaotic struggle that involved both gunfire and a knife.

Reacting sharply to a reporter’s question about whether the Trump administration should have deployed National Guard units to city streets, Pirro replied that the Guard is necessary, adding that their presence “saved lives.” As officials left the news conference, Pirro brushed off a final question about whether the suspect was part of a radicalized Islamist network, saying only: “We won’t go there.”

Yesterday the Secret Service briefly locked down the White House as sirens converged on one of downtown Washington’s busiest commuter arteries. Witnesses told reporters they heard a short burst of shots followed by more sustained firing, then watched people flee into side streets and cafes as emergency vehicles arrived.

The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force is leading the investigation. Law-enforcement officials say they are examining Lakanwal’s digital footprint, communications and travel history, and working with intelligence agencies to retrace his time in Afghanistan and the United States. Patel said FBI teams had conducted searches overnight on numerous electronic devices found at properties associated with the suspect — including in San Diego and in Washington State.

“You miss all the signs (of danger) when you do zero vetting,” Patel told reporters when asked if the Biden administration had erred in admitting the suspect.

In a televised address from his Mar-a-Lago resort late Wednesday, President Trump framed the attack as proof that his immigration hard line is justified. Calling the shooting “a heinous assault” and “an act of evil, an act of hatred, an act of terror,” Trump said the United States “will not put up with these kinds of assaults on law and order by people who shouldn’t even be in our country.”

He pledged to “re-examine every single alien who has entered our country from Afghanistan under Biden” and vowed that “the animal who perpetrated this atrocity” would pay “the steepest possible price.” Shortly afterward, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced that it has halted processing of all immigration requests relating to Afghan nationals — including asylum applications, permanent-residency cases and new entries — “pending further review of security and vetting protocols.”

According to an internal USCIS memo previously obtained by CBS News, the Trump administration had already directed immigration officials to review the cases of all refugees admitted during the Biden years, a cohort of roughly 233,000 people from multiple countries. Now, Afghans are facing an explicit freeze, with no end date. Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance amplified the hard-line message, writing on X that the shooting proved critics of Biden’s Afghan-refugee policy wrong and declaring: “We must redouble our efforts to deport people with no right to be in our country.”

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Artificial Intelligence

Trump’s New AI Focused ‘Manhattan Project’ Adds Pressure To Grid

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By David Blackmon

Will America’s electricity grid make it through the impending winter of 2025-26 without suffering major blackouts? It’s a legitimate question to ask given the dearth of adequate dispatchable baseload that now exists on a majority of the major regional grids according to a new report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

In its report, NERC expresses particular concern for the Texas grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), where a rapid buildout of new, energy hogging AI datacenters and major industrial users is creating a rapid increase in electricity demand. “Strong load growth from new data centers and other large industrial end users is driving higher winter electricity demand forecasts and contributing to continued risk of supply shortfalls,” NERC notes.

Texas, remember, lost 300 souls in February 2021 when Winter Storm Uri put the state in a deep freeze for a week. The freezing temperatures combined with snowy and icy conditions first caused the state’s wind and solar fleets to fail. When ERCOT implemented rolling blackouts, they denied electricity to some of the state’s natural gas transmission infrastructure, causing it to freeze up, which in turn caused a significant percentage of natural gas power plants to fall offline. Because the state had already shut down so much of its once formidable fleet of coal-fired plants and hasn’t opened a new nuclear plant since the mid-1980s, a disastrous major blackout that lingered for days resulted.

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To their credit, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, the legislature, ERCOT, and other state agencies have invoked major reforms to the system designed to prevent this scenario from happening again over the last four years. But, as NERC notes, the state remains dangerously short of dispatchable thermal capacity needed to keep the grid up and running when wind and solar inevitably drop off the system in such a storm. And ERCOT isn’t alone: Several other regional grids are in the same boat.

This country’s power generation sector can either get serious about building out the needed new thermal capacity or disaster will inevitably result again, because demand isn’t going to stop rising anytime soon. In fact, the already rapid expansion of the AI datacenter industry is certain to accelerate in the wake of President Trump’s approval on Monday of the Genesis Mission, a plan to create another Manhattan Project-style partnership between the government and private industry focused on AI.

It’s an incredibly complex vision, but what the Genesis Mission boils down to is an effort to build an “integrated AI platform” consisting of all federal scientific datasets to which selected AI development projects will be provided access. The concept is to build what amounts to a national brain to help accelerate U.S. AI development and enable America to remain ahead of China in the global AI arm’s race.

So, every dataset that is currently siloed within DOE, NASA, NSF, Census Bureau, NIH, USDA, FDA, etc. will be melded into a single dataset to try to produce a sort of quantum leap in AI development. Put simply, most AI tools currently exist in a phase of their development in which they function as little more than accelerated, advanced search tools – basically, they’re in the fourth grade of their education path on the way to obtaining their doctorate’s degree. This is an effort to invoke a quantum leap among those selected tools, enabling them to figuratively skip eight grades and become college freshmen.

Here’s how the order signed Monday by President Trump puts it: “The Genesis Mission will dramatically accelerate scientific discovery, strengthen national security, secure energy dominance, enhance workforce productivity, and multiply the return on taxpayer investment into research and development, thereby furthering America’s technological dominance and global strategic leadership.”

It’s an ambitious goal that attempts to exploit some of the same central planning techniques China is able to use to its own advantage.

But here’s the thing: Every element envisioned in the Genesis Mission will require more electricity: Much more, in fact. It’s a brave new world that will place a huge amount of added pressure on power generation companies and grid managers like ERCOT. Americans must hope and pray they’re up to the task. Their track records in this century do not inspire confidence.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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