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Opinion

IRS data shows ‘Blue State Exodus’ over past 30 years

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From The Center Square

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California led the nation in net outward migration between 1990 and 2021, hemorrhaging a total of 4.6 million people

Millions of residents in blue states have migrated to red states within the past 30 years, according to federal data. A policy group that analyzed the data says it’s a clear sign that many Americans find Democratic policies unlivable.

From 1990 to 2021, a total of 13 million people left California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts and migrated to Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Nevada, and South Carolina over the same period.

American Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Edward J. Pinto attributes this “blue state exodus” to progressive policies, with high crimeunaffordable housinghigh taxes, and rising levels of homelessness and unemployment driving away residents.

“The trend is undeniable: Americans are fleeing progressive states for conservative ones, and they are bringing their incomes with them,” Pinto wrote in a recent op-ed, published in Newsweek.

The American Enterprise Institute is a free market think tank “dedicated to defending human dignity, expanding human potential, and building a freer and safer world,” according to its website.

IRS data reveals California led the nation in net outward migration between 1990 and 2021, hemorrhaging a total of 4.6 million people during that time. New York lost roughly the same number, many of whom moved to Florida.

More than two million residents have left Illinois during the past 30 years and 1 million have left New Jersey. Massachusetts saw an exodus of 800,000, with 50,000 leaving in 2020 alone.

Pinto says that economically and socially attractive policies in red states, including lowering taxes, enacting tough on crime measures, supporting school choice, and enforcing immigration laws, are likely the reason so many blue state residents have migrated.

Unless Democratic governors shift course, Pinto said, their “states will face a doom loop of permanent decline due to shrinking populations, rising subsidies, diminished economic vitality, increasing poverty, and a less prosperous future.”

Bruce Dowbiggin

Kirk’s Killing: Which Side Can Count on the Military’s Loyalty Now?

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“After every armistice, you want to put us away in mothballs, like the fleet. When it comes to a little dying you’ll be sure to put us in a uniform…” Seven Days in May

In the 1964 political film Seven Days in May, a rogue Director of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff conspires to launch a coup against a failing president who’s just signed a nuclear disarmament treaty with the Soviets. The plot is uncovered by a Marine Corps colonel, and the coup is barely averted with all the conspirators apprehended.

In 1964 the notion that the loyalty of the military/ intelligence services might be compromised was a hot topic in the days afterJFK’s assassination. After calming down in the Reagan days— remember Woody Allen’s revolution spoof Bananas?—  it has now returned.

How likely is a military/ intelligence coup? Loyalty of troops has been crucial in many coups and insurrections around the world. Famously the socialist regime of Salvador Allende was crushed in 1973 when the Chilean military staged a bloody coup. Allende and thousands were murdered as General Augusto Pinochet took over the country.

Still, the conceit in Western nations has always been “It can’t happen here”. The institutions of government are believed too strong and independent to allow themselves to be taken over by their militaries. The chattering classes prefer to see their military as Stanley Kubrick did in Dr. Strangelove— bumbling buffoons,  lackeys led by General Buck Turgidson.

Certainly in Canada, where successive Liberal government culminated with Justin Trudeau, the Kubrick model is closer to reality. DEI hiring, cuts to budgets and a slavish reliance on America to protect Canada for free have produced a Canadian military with more in common with HMS Pinafore than Vimy Ridge. From the world’s third-largest navy in 1945, Canada is now a boat that can’t float.

But something seems to have changed with the Tuesday murder of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk. It seems a massive provocation by people who want to destroy the American society. It’s not helped by the voices on the Left claiming he brought it on himself with hate speech. @punishedmother “Maybe Charlie Kirk shouldn’t have spent years being a hateful demagogic fascist and this wouldn’t have happened. Maybe he should take some personal responsibility.It will take careful leadership to prevent this boiling over.”

This growing intolerance between the political sides exposed yet again by Kirk’s assassination has made people consider the Armed Forces’ loyalty in a crisis. As in, who has it? (In pacifist Canada the current clash of cultures is that support of the military might be necessary in resisting the conservative right. Despite Bill C-23 disarming Canadians the unarmed Left might face a large, well-armed rightwing population brandishing weapons.)

In a divided America think of Tom Cruise’s JAG character in A Few Good Men confronting hardened Marine commandant played by Jack Nicholson— and you have the conflict. “You can’ t take the truth!” Fighting generals are a thing of the past when Democrats are in power. Successive presidents have used DEI to create desk generals and commanders who reflect good taste over good planning.

This DEI mission creep in the military was one of Donald Trump’s strongest planks in defeating hapless Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Canadian Liberals, meanwhile, managed to dodge their pathetic defence shortcomings only by making the 2025 election all about Trump and a 51st state, not defence or Chinese influence.

There has been evidence that some at the highest levels of the U.S. military, CIA and FBI have already shown a bias toward Democrats. In the waning days of Trump 45 Chief of Staff Mark Milley told the Chinese leadership— America’s No. 1 global rival— that he would personally tip them off if Trump launched a surprise attack on China.

In another time (or movie) Milley’s treachery would been seen as treasonous, punishable by a life in the stockade or, possibly, execution. In the hands of the DC Media Party, however, Milley’s partisan gambit was buried in the run-up to the 2020 election. As with the concurrent Hunter Biden laptop scandal, the story was made to disappear in a welter of Trump demonization and legal harassment

Now we must wonder again. Sadly for Harris, Milley and Team Obama, the Democrats were thrashed by the Trump agenda. POTUS 45—now 47— quickly began replacing lifetime loyalists in the military and bureaucrats, stifling for now the urge to purge,

Again this scenario was unthinkable a generation ago, a plot in a movie. But the governments of Barack Obama and Joe Biden (Trudeau in Canada) have created a social schism that has turned politics into a blood sport. As we know there were two attempts on Trump in the election campaign by deranged radicals. The defeated Democrats’  obsession over who controls the Supreme Court and Congress in Trump’s presidency, the repeated comparisions to Hitler, are producing greater and more strident anything-is-accepted calls from the radical Left to take to the streets and pursue civil disobedience.

In Canada Mark Carney’s Elbows Up gambit is dissipating rapidly since the election, producing active discussion of separation in Alberta and Quebec (again). This raises questions about what the military might do in the aftermath of a vote by either side to leave Canada. Might they intervene? Would they stand aside? Will tanks roll to protect a Carney Canada?

No doubt Charlie Kirk’s death will be mobilized by both sides in their appeals for the loyalty of the military should a civil war break out in the U.S. Get your generals in a row. MSNBC’s Jen Psaki has declared Trump’s tribute to Kirk “an escalation” Says legal expert Jonathan Turley, “We are already at political assassinations, so I am not sure how much more room for escalation there may be for Psaki or MSNBC.”

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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Alberta

Provincial pension plan could boost retirement savings for Albertans

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Joel Emes

In 2026, Albertans may vote on whether or not to leave the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) for a provincial pension plan. While they should weigh the cost and benefits, one thing is clear—Albertans could boost their retirement savings under a provincial pension plan.

Compared to the rest of Canada, Alberta has relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes and a younger population. Subsequently, Albertans collectively contribute more to the CPP than retirees in the province receive in total CPP payments.

Indeed, from 1981 to 2022 (the latest year of available data), Alberta workers paid 14.4 per cent (annually, on average) of total CPP contributions (typically from their paycheques) while retirees in the province received 10.0 per cent of the payments. That’s a net contribution of $53.6 billion from Albertans over the period.

Alberta’s demographic and income advantages also mean that if the province left the CPP, Albertans could pay lower contribution rates while still receiving the same retirement benefits under a provincial pension plan (in fact, the CPP Act requires that to leave CPP, a province must provide a comparable plan with comparable benefits). This would mean Albertans keep more of their money, which they can use to boost their private retirement savings (e.g. RRSPs or TFSAs).

According to one estimate, Albertans’ contribution rate could fall from 9.9 per cent (the current base CPP rate) to 5.85 per cent under a provincial pension plan. Under this scenario, a typical Albertan earning the median income ($50,000 in 2025) and contributing since age 18, would save $50,023 over their lifetime from paying a lower rate under provincial pension plan. Thanks to the power of compound interest, with a 7.1 per cent (average) nominal rate of return (based on a balanced portfolio of investments), those savings could grow to nearly $190,000 over the same worker’s lifetime.

Pair that amount with what you’d receive from the new provincial pension plan ($265,000) and you’d have $455,000 in retirement income (pre-tax)—nearly 72 per cent more than under the CPP alone.

To be clear, exactly how much you’d save depends on the specific contribution rate for the new provincial pension plan. We use 5.85 per cent in the above scenario, but estimates vary. But even if we assume a higher contribution rate, Albertan’s could still receive more in retirement with the provincial pension plan compared to the current CPP.

Consider the potential with a provincial pension contribution rate of 8.21 per cent. A typical Albertan, contributing since age 18, would generate $330,000 in pre-tax retirement income from the new provincial pension plan plus their private savings, which is nearly one quarter larger than they’d receive from the CPP alone (again, $265,000).

Albertans should consider the full costs and benefits of a provincial pension plan, but it’s clearly Albertans could benefit from higher retirement income due to increased private savings.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Joel Emes

Senior Economist, Fraser Institute
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