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By Our View

Canada faces a reckoning as Trump and Alberta disrupt long-held national assumptions

It may sound counterintuitive, but U.S. President Donald Trump and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith might be doing more to strengthen Canadian unity and prosperity than anyone in Ottawa.

Both are forcing a broken system long overdue for reform to face its flaws—Trump from the outside, Alberta from within. Trump’s revived protectionism is pushing Canada to confront its economic dependence on the United States, while Alberta’s bold demands are exposing the structural weaknesses of Canadian federalism. This unlikely convergence of pressure could lead to reform that strengthens the nation.

Trump’s renewed imposition of tariffs on Canadian imports, including a 25 per cent levy on most goods and a 10 per cent tariff on energy products, has
reignited trade tensions between the two nations. Trump has done this before: his 2018 tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum sparked a brief but damaging trade war. His new measures are already disrupting industries reliant on crossborder supply chains, particularly in critical minerals.

However, there is a significant caveat: goods that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—the trade deal that
replaced NAFTA—are exempt from these tariffs. This exemption, initially set to expire on April 2, 2025, has been extended indefinitely, providing relief to industries that meet the agreement’s rules of origin. For example, auto parts manufactured in Canada that comply with USMCA standards are exempt from the newly announced duties.

Even with these carve-outs, the broader trade friction remains. This tension could be just what Canada needs. An unreliable U.S. trade partner may finally push Canadian policymakers to diversify markets, boost productivity and reduce our long-standing dependence on a single customer. The pain may be temporary, but the lessons could be permanent.

Meanwhile, Alberta is making it clear that business as usual will no longer be tolerated. Smith has issued a wide-ranging list of demands, including a repeal of Bill C-69—often called the “no more pipelines” bill by critics—which imposed stricter federal reviews on major energy projects; freedom to develop oil and gas resources without federal emissions caps; and the ability to opt out of industrial carbon taxes and net-zero vehicle mandates.

Some critics call Alberta’s stance reckless or anti-environment. But behind the rhetoric lies a growing frustration with a system that penalizes the very provinces driving Canada’s economy. Alberta isn’t seeking favours—it’s demanding fairness. If Ottawa fails to respond, the province is prepared to hold an independence referendum. That’s no longer an idle threat.

Canada’s deeper problems go well beyond Alberta. Interprovincial trade barriers fragment our economy. Energy infrastructure is blocked or stalled. And the equalization program sends billions to provinces that refuse to develop their own resources. Equalization is meant to ensure all provinces can deliver comparable public services, but the formula often penalizes growth-oriented provinces like Alberta while rewarding inaction. For decades, we’ve watched opportunity slip through our fingers, often by our own design.

External and internal forces are now creating the urgency we’ve lacked. Canadians are increasingly asking why internal trade isn’t as free as external
trade. Support for pipelines and energy independence is growing, even in provinces that previously opposed them. With global instability rising, secure
access to our own energy and markets is no longer optional—it’s essential.

It’s also hard to justify Quebec receiving $13 billion annually while banning fracking and refusing to develop its shale gas. The equalization formula discourages innovation, investment and self-reliance in recipient provinces. That’s not national solidarity—it’s economic dead weight.

This moment may feel tense, even dangerous. But real progress often begins with discomfort. Much like a labour negotiation or a market correction, shortterm conflict can lead to long-term renewal.

Canada has two choices: continue muddling along, or use this moment to reset and rebuild. That means cutting internal trade barriers. It means modernizing equalization. It means saying yes to energy infrastructure that strengthens national sovereignty. And above all, it means recognizing that the West’s prosperity is Canada’s prosperity.

Trump isn’t acting with Canada’s best interests in mind. Neither is Alberta trying to dismantle the country. But both are forcing us to look in the mirror. If we take this opportunity seriously, we may come out of it with a stronger, more selfreliant and united Canada.

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