From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

After scoring a narrow victory in the federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney and his incoming cabinet will confront a host of pressing issues. Dealing with the erratic and sometimes menacing Donald Trump—and navigating the multi-front tariff war the U.S. president has launched—is undoubtedly job one. Meanwhile, the refreshed Liberal government will face an enfeebled Canadian economy that may be on the cusp of a recession triggered by Trump’s mad-cap trade policies and dwindling economic growth across much of the world. Finding ways to implement—and pay for—the grab-bag of costly promises in the Liberal Party’s election platform will also tax the abilities of Carney and his ministers.

Beyond the immediate imperative of managing relations with the United States, the top priority for the Carney team must be creating the conditions for stronger economic growth at home. Under Justin Trudeau, the Liberal government was preoccupied with social policy, income redistribution, climate change and Indigenous reconciliation. As former finance minister Bill Morneau has written, Trudeau displayed zero interest in bolstering the underlying foundations of Canadian prosperity, which languished on his watch. Hopefully, Carney’s administration won’t make the same mistake.

Unfortunately, team Carney starts with a weak economic hand. Canada has been losing global market share in almost all of our export-oriented industries. Productivity is stagnant, and business investment is insufficient even to offset ongoing deprecation of the “capital stock”—the buildings, equipment and machinery owned and used by firms across Canada. Net foreign direct investment flows have turned sharply negative, with Canadian firms investing more abroad than foreign companies invest in Canada—a clear sign of our waning competitiveness.

Even more worryingly, Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) per person—the total income that households and businesses generate, divided by the population—shrank by 1 per cent between 2018 and 2023, before dipping again last year. During this time period, we’ve been near the bottom among 38 advanced countries on this basic metric of economic success and living standards.

In fact, Canada’s economy today is scarcely larger than it was a decade ago (after adjusting for population growth and inflation). Comparisons with the U.S. make for particularly painful reading. Between the first quarter of 2016 and the fourth quarter of last year, inflation-adjusted per-person economic output grew by just 2.5 per cent in Canada compared to 18.7 per cent in the U.S. This speaks both to the economic failures of the Trudeau era and the urgent need for Ottawa to change course.

So, what to do?

Turning around Canada’s lacklustre economy will require a sharp turn away from the policies of the Trudeau era. Instead of serially expanding the size, cost and administrative reach of the government sector, federal policymakers should look to kick-start business investment, improve Canada’s global competitive position, accelerate business innovation, and scale back the regulatory chokehold that has been stifling business growth in key sectors of our economy including natural resources, manufacturing and infrastructure development. Progress in these areas will require a significant overhaul of Canada’s creaky growth-inhibiting tax system, a commitment to smarter and more efficient regulation across the government sector, and more disciplined and thoughtful management of Ottawa’s $550 billion in annual spending.

Is the Carney government up to the task? Its first budget, likely to be tabled within the next few weeks, should provide some initial clues.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

From the National Citizens Coalition

By Peter Coleman, President, National Citizens Coalition

Carney’s Washington Trip: A Low Bar Cleared, But Real Challenges Await

The legacy media circus surrounding Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent trip to Washington was predictable, wasn’t it? The Liberal-subsidized press, ever eager to prop up their chosen darlings, couldn’t stop fawning over how Carney “stood up” to President Donald Trump. As someone who’s never been accused of waving a Liberal flag, I’ll admit it was refreshing to see a Canadian leader who could string two coherent sentences together without embarrassing us on the world stage. After years of Justin Trudeau sullying our nation with his very presence, Carney’s performance cleared the lowest of bars. But let’s not break out the champagne just yet.

NCC and Western Standard readers—hard-working folks who value straight talk over CBC’s syrupy narratives, or the Globe and Mail’s elitist drivel—know better than to judge a politician by their words. Carney’s entire election pitch boiled down to terrifying voters with a hyperbolic “Orange Man bad, vote for me” message. It was a message tailor-made for naive leftists glued to legacy media, blissfully unaware of the real world. Meanwhile, those of us reading outlets like this one, where ideas are challenged and truths are unearthed, saw through the bombast and the cynical “elbows up” campaign strategy, and we know to judge leaders by what they do, not what they say to get elected. On that front, Carney’s still got a steep hill to climb.

So let’s give credit where it’s due—not to Carney, but to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Her recent press conference was a masterclass in clarity and conviction, laying out conditions for a new relationship with a federal government that’s long treated Alberta with disdain. For too many in Ottawa, Alberta’s nothing more than a cash cow to prop up Quebec through equalization payments while dismissing the West’s reasonable concerns as backwater griping. Smith’s demands were practical and rooted in the reality that Alberta’s contributions deserve more respect, not contempt. So, how did the so-called “smartest guy in the room”—as Carney and his media cheerleaders love to proclaim—respond to these demands? Crickets. No answers, no action, just the same old Liberal sidestep.

Meanwhile, while Carney basks in the afterglow of his Washington photo-op, the world isn’t waiting for Canada to get its act together. As I write this, the United States and the United Kingdom have just announced the framework for a historic free trade agreement. Remember Carney’s campaign promises? He was supposed to be the guy securing “historic” trade deals with the UK and the EU. Yet here we are, watching the UK cozy up to the U.S. while Canada’s left on the sidelines. What happened? Could it be that Carney’s thinly veiled carbon tax obsession and climate change dogma—kept under wraps during the campaign—are already scaring off potential partners? Or perhaps our allies see what millions in Canada have already noticed: a leader surrounded by the same incompetent Trudeau-era cabinet, who may still be destined to recycle the same tired and destructive ideas that have held Canada back for a decade.

Time will tell, but the clock is ticking, and Canada’s still moving in slow motion. Carney will soon learn the hard way that governing is a far cry from glad-handing in Beijing, benefiting from President Trump’s election interference, or fear-mongering on the campaign trail. Most Canadians aren’t interested in more rhetoric; we want results. With our vast resources, we should be the richest country on Earth, yet for ten years, we’ve been sliding backward. Our economy is stagnant, our global influence is waning, and Ottawa’s obsession with centralized control and woke policies have left us ill-equipped to compete. The time for change isn’t tomorrow—it’s now.

Carney’s got a chance to prove he’s more than a slick operator, but he’s got to deliver. Alberta’s demands, as articulated by Smith, aren’t just a wishlist; they’re a pre-requisite to restoring fairness and unleashing our potential. Ignore them, and Carney risks alienating the real economic engine of this country. Canadians deserve better than another decade of mismanagement and excuses. Here at the National Citizens Coalition, we’ve been around since 1967, and we’ve seen governments come and go. Through it all, we’ve stayed true to our mission: advocating for freedom and common sense, and a Canada that lives up to its promise. Mark Carney is on notice—words won’t cut it anymore. It’s time to act.

But more than anything, it’s time for government to get out of the way.

Peter Coleman is the President of the National Citizens Coalition, Canada’s pioneer conservative non-profit advocacy group.