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Fiscal update reveals extent of federal government mismanagement

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5 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

Following the sudden departure of Chrystia Freeland as finance minister, the Trudeau government released its 2024 fall fiscal update on Monday. Unsurprisingly, spending is up, the deficit has ballooned even higher, and the Trudeau government continues to utterly mismanage Canada’s finances.

Let’s get into the numbers.

For the current fiscal year (2024-25), the update estimates the federal government will spend $543.4 billion while taking in $495.2 billion in revenues. This means the government plans to run a $48.3 billion deficit—$8.5 billion higher than the $39.8 billion deficit that had originally been planned just eight months ago.

The Trudeau government’s incessant need to introduce new spending at every turn has driven this increase in borrowing. Indeed, discretionary spending on programs is now expected to be $6.1 billion higher than initially projected in this year’s budget tabled in April. Revenues have also taken a hit compared to projections from the spring, primarily from the federal government’s new GST holiday.

Not only will the government run a larger deficit this year, but future deficits are also expected to rise. Cumulative deficits from 2025-26 to 2028-29 are now expected to be $14.9 billion higher than projected in the spring budget.

There are costs associated with running deficits and accumulating debt, and Canadians ultimately bear these costs. Just like anyone who takes out a loan at a bank, government must pay interest on the money it borrows. In the case of the federal government, these interest costs will reach an estimated $53.7 billion in 2024-25 alone—more than all revenue collected via the federal GST. In other words, every dollar that Canadians are expected to pay in GST this year will go towards federal debt interest, as opposed to any services or programs. And as the federal government continues to borrow more, all else equal, these interest costs will continue to rise.

While the updated deficits for 2024-25 and beyond are still estimates, the 2024 FES presents what’s likely the final deficit number for the 2023-24 fiscal year. In a remarkable display of fiscal mismanagement, the Trudeau government ran a $61.9 billion deficit last year—$21.9 billion higher than the $40.0 billion deficit projected in the budget.

This means the federal government has broken one of its fiscal rules (a.k.a. guardrails) that help guide policy on spending, taxes and borrowing. One year ago, the Trudeau government established three fiscal rules—including to keep the 2023-24 deficit at or below $40.1 billion. These rules were reaffirmed in the spring budget, and have been a key feature of the Trudeau government’s so-called “responsible economic plan.”

However, there’s nothing responsible about establishing a rule only to break it a year later. Unfortunately, the Trudeau government has made a habit breaking its self-imposed rules. In 2015, the government established its first fiscal rule—balancing the budget by fiscal year 2019-20. But it quickly abandoned this rule in subsequent months and proposed an alternative rule—to reduce federal debt relative to the size of the economy (GDP). But again, this rule became an afterthought, as federal debt increased relative to GDP in 2019-20 and continued to sharply increase during the pandemic and has yet to return to anywhere near pre-COVID levels.

As has happened consistently in the past decade, this year’s fall update reveals that spending and deficits are up compared to the budget plan the government presented just months ago. The Trudeau government is utterly mismanaging the Canada’s finances, which has caused turmoil inside the government while Canadians bear the consequences.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

Business

Top Canadian bank ditches UN-backed ‘net zero’ climate goals it helped create

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From LifeSiteNews

By Anthony Murdoch

RBC’s dropping of its ‘net zero’ finance targets came just one day after the Liberal Party under Mark Carney was re-elected in Canada.

Just one day after the re-election of the Liberal Party under Mark Carney, the Royal Bank of Canada joined the growing list of top banks withdrawing from a United Nations-backed “net zero” alliance that supports the eventual elimination of the nation’s oil and gas industry in the name of “climate change.”

The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) on Tuesday quietly dumped its UN-backed Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) sustainable finance targets, which called for banks to come in line with the push for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The NZBA is a subgroup of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), which Carney was co-chair of until recently.

RBC’s departure comes despite the fact that it was one of the NZBA’s founding members.

RBC joins Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Bank of Montreal (BMO), National Bank of Canada, and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) who earlier in the year said they were withdrawing from the NZBA.

The bank announced the move away from a green agenda in its 2024 sustainability report, noting it would no longer look to pursue a $500 billion sustainable finance goal. It cited changes to Canada’s federal Competition Act as the reason.

The changes to the act, known as the “greenwashing law,” now mandate that companies provide proof of their environmental claims.

“We have reviewed our methodology and have concluded that it may not have appropriately measured certain of our sustainable finance activities,” noted RBC in its report.

RBC also noted it would not make public any of its metrics regarding its energy supply ratio.

Monday’s election saw Liberal leader Carney beat out Conservative rival Poilievre, who also lost his seat. The Conservatives managed to pick up over 20 new seats, however, and Poilievre has vowed to stay on as party leader, for now.

The GFANZ was formed in 2021 while Carney was its co-chair. He resigned from his role in the alliance right before he announced he would run for Liberal leadership to replace former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Large U.S. banks such as Morgan Stanley,  JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo and Bank of America have all withdrawn from the group as well.

Since taking office in 2015, the Liberal government, first under Trudeau and now under Carney, has continued to push a radical environmental agenda in line with those promoted by the World Economic Forum’s “Great Reset” and the United Nations’ “Sustainable Development Goals.” Part of this push includes the promotion of so called net-zero energy by as early as 2035.

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Overregulation is choking Canadian businesses, says the MEI

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  From the Montreal Economic Institute

The federal government’s growing regulatory burden on businesses is holding Canada back and must be urgently reviewed, argues a new publication from the MEI released this morning.

“Regulation creep is a real thing, and Ottawa has been fuelling it for decades,” says Krystle Wittevrongel, director of research at the MEI and coauthor of the Viewpoint. “Regulations are passed but rarely reviewed, making it burdensome to run a business, or even too costly to get started.”

Between 2006 and 2021, the number of federal regulatory requirements in Canada rose by 37 per cent, from 234,200 to 320,900. This is estimated to have reduced real GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points, employment growth by 1.3 percentage points, and labour productivity by 0.4 percentage points, according to recent Statistics Canada data.

Small businesses are disproportionately impacted by the proliferation of new regulations.

In 2024, firms with fewer than five employees pay over $10,200 per employee in regulatory and red tape compliance costs, compared to roughly $1,400 per employee for businesses with 100 or more employees, according to data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

Overall, Canadian businesses spend 768 million hours a year on compliance, which is equivalent to almost 394,000 full-time jobs. The costs to the economy in 2024 alone were over $51.5 billion.

It is hardly surprising in this context that entrepreneurship in Canada is on the decline. In the year 2000, 3 out of every 1,000 Canadians started a business. By 2022, that rate had fallen to just 1.3, representing a nearly 57 per cent drop since 2000.

The impact of regulation in particular is real: had Ottawa maintained the number of regulations at 2006 levels, Canada would have seen about 10 per cent more business start-ups in 2021, according to Statistics Canada.

The MEI researcher proposes a practical way to reevaluate the necessity of these regulations, applying a model based on the Chrétien government’s 1995 Program Review.

In the 1990s, the federal government launched a review process aimed at reducing federal spending. Over the course of two years, it successfully eliminated $12 billion in federal spending, a reduction of 9.7 per cent, and restored fiscal balance.

A similar approach applied to regulations could help identify rules that are outdated, duplicative, or unjustified.

The publication outlines six key questions to evaluate existing or proposed regulations:

  1. What is the purpose of the regulation?
  2. Does it serve the public interest?
  3. What is the role of the federal government and is its intervention necessary?
  4. What is the expected economic cost of the regulation?
  5. Is there a less costly or intrusive way to solve the problem the regulation seeks to address?
  6. Is there a net benefit?

According to OECD projections, Canada is expected to experience the lowest GDP per capita growth among advanced economies through 2060.

“Canada has just lived through a decade marked by weak growth, stagnant wages, and declining prosperity,” says Ms. Wittevrongel. “If policymakers are serious about reversing this trend, they must start by asking whether existing regulations are doing more harm than good.”

The MEI Viewpoint is available here.

* * *

The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.

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