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Alberta

Federal climate plan could trigger Alberta recession

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This article supplied by Troy Media.

Troy Media By Lennie Kaplan

Ottawa’s emissions cap unfairly targets Alberta while claiming to serve national climate goals

Alberta could face a deep recession in 2030, driven not by global markets but by Ottawa’s climate agenda. A new analysis warns that federal plans to
cap oil and gas emissions and cut greenhouse gases would hit Alberta harder than any other province, gutting jobs, income and government revenues.

According to recent analysis by the Conference Board of Canada, a respected non-partisan economic research group, the impact of these federal climate policies would be both severe and long-lasting. As the report states:

“Given the importance of the oil and gas sector to Alberta’s economy, the province will be disproportionately impacted by the policies in the ERP [Emissions Reduction Plan]. Alberta would experience a deep recession in 2030 and would subsequently experience slower economic growth compared to our Baseline forecast. As a result, Alberta’s GDP (11.0 per cent), employment (4.1 per cent), and government revenues (9.3 per cent) would all be lower than in our Baseline scenario in 2050. Also… incomes in Alberta would be 7.3 per cent, or $3,300 lower per person.”

These are not hypothetical figures. The modelling, presented to the Alberta government in January 2025, examined a range of scenarios, including different oil price assumptions and technology adoption paths. Regardless of the outlook, one conclusion stands out: Alberta would shoulder nearly 80 per cent of all Canadian oil and gas production cuts under the proposed emissions cap.

Oil and gas account for nearly one-third of Alberta’s GDP and a major share of its government revenues. With so much of the provincial economy dependent on energy production, the consequences of these federal mandates would be disproportionately severe.

This raises serious questions about fairness, federalism and the balance of power in Confederation. Why should one province absorb the lion’s share of the cost to satisfy national targets negotiated without its full consent?

This isn’t just poor policy: it’s deliberate and destructive.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s government has recognized the threat and responded by forming the Alberta Next Committee and appointing a special negotiating team. Its efforts are aimed at securing a more balanced deal with Ottawa—an “Alberta Accord” that protects the province’s core economic interests while contributing to national climate goals through technology and innovation, not coercion.

Prime Minister Marc Carney has long promoted the idea of building a green economy, and his government appears poised to continue down that path. But real transitions require co-operation. A credible climate plan cannot be built by crippling one region to subsidize another.

Alberta is already leading in areas such as carbon capture, hydrogen and clean power generation. Yet those efforts risk being undercut by federal policies that punish energy producers simply for existing.

The memory of the National Energy Program looms large. Introduced by the first Trudeau government in the 1980s, it redirected energy revenues to Ottawa, drove investment out of Alberta and triggered one of the province’s worst economic downturns. The parallels today are hard to ignore: once again, a federal Liberal government is imposing top-down energy policy with little regard for the fallout in the West.

The situation also highlights a deeper issue—the steady erosion of provincial autonomy in economic decision-making. If federal policies can devastate one province’s economy in the name of national ambition, what does that say about the future of Canadian federalism?

The numbers are clear. The proposed federal emissions cap would gut Alberta’s economy, eliminate jobs and cripple public revenues. The Smith government must escalate its pushback and build broad provincial support to stop Ottawa from repeating the mistakes of the past.

Alberta cannot afford a second National Energy Program.

Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Treasury Board and Finance Ministry, where, among other duties, he assessed the risks of government financial arrangements with private sector business ventures. He also served as a research consultant to the Auditor General of Alberta’s 2018 audit entitled APMC Management of Agreement to Process Bitumen at the Sturgeon Refinery. 

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

Alberta

A Provincial Police That Serves Alberta

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Haultain Research Haultain Research  Marco Navarro-Génie's avatar Marco Navarro-Génie

The story of an RCMP sergeant decrying traditional values as a gateway for extremism should be more than troubling. It should be fuel for every Albertan committed to establishing a provincial police force that reflects who we are, not what Ottawa wishes us to become.

Alberta has lately endured serious RCMP overreach. We remember the door-kicking in Fort McMurray, and the same abusive aggression repeated during the 2013 floods in High River. And few will forget the politically fabricated claims made against the Coutts Four. These weren’t isolated incidents. They are expressions of an institutional culture unmoored from Alberta’s interests, unaccountable to its people, and ultimately indifferent to the liberties Albertans value.

The RCMP was not always this way. It was once a respected force rooted in Western traditions, created to keep peace and order on a rugged frontier—an institution with a sense of duty to the West it served. But that era has long passed. The RCMP today is a different creature—centralized, politicized, and openly hostile to the values it was once meant to protect.

This is why the push for an Alberta provincial police force must not be dismissed as symbolism or empty political gesture.

Let us be clear: Alberta doesn’t need anyone’s permission to establish its police force. Section 92 of the Constitution Act, 1867 grants Alberta the authority to create its police force. Quebec and Ontario have done so. Alberta is equally entitled, despite the centralizing delusions that drift through Ottawa and a few bon pensants among the New Democratic opposition.

Still, entitlement alone is not enough. Execution matters.

There is a quiet triumphalism in some circles—a belief that simply calling a force “Alberta Provincial Police” will make it better. But geography never guarantees virtue. Unless Albertans are intentional, Alberta risks reproducing the same policing culture that has failed us, only with new decals and a provincial seal.

The story of Jeremia and Dominic Leussink five years ago illustrates the danger. The two brothers, farmers near Didsbury, were trying to do their work. After a 16-hour shift, Jeremia, then 18, was driving a tractor down Highway 2A. He entered a police checkstop through a ditch, which is standard practice on rural roads. Alberta Sheriffs didn’t use discretion. They used force. Jeremia was dragged from the tractor, slammed into the gravel, and punched in the neck and face. Dominic, who arrived soon after, was detained when he attempted to prevent damage to the machinery. Charges were laid and then quietly dropped, but not before the boys endured physical harm and a humiliating brush with the law.

This wasn’t the RCMP. This was a provincial outfit. And it reminds us that the problem isn’t just federal control—the culture and traditions of a police force matter.

This brings us to a deeper question: What kind of police culture should Alberta build?

Alberta is not a generic Canadian province. As its motto declares, we are strong and free. Our strength lies in our culture. We prize private enterprise and property not as a luxury but as the bedrock of freedom. We value liberty—not only the freedom to speak, worship, associate, and dissent, but the freedom from the state when it seeks to impose itself where it doesn’t belong. These convictions are not ornamental. They are essential to the Alberta way of life.

The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, notably, does not even mention property rights. That tells you everything about the central Canadian view of liberty. And it explains why so many of our freedoms—property, expression, conscience—are eroding under the bureaucratic thumb of progressive ideology that dominates Laurentia.

This isn’t theoretical anymore. It’s operational.

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The remarks by RCMP Staff Sergeant Camille Habel about “traditional values” being a path to extremism are not fringe views. They reflect a new cultural orthodoxy now embedded in federal institutions. And they make it more urgent that Alberta create its force, one grounded in law and in culture. That means training Alberta’s officers in accordance with Alberta’s distinct values.

To get there, we must be deliberate.

We should begin by identifying the core virtues that must define an Alberta police force. First, it must be culturally rooted. Officers should not merely patrol Alberta, but belong to it, understanding the values, customs, and expectations of the people they serve. Second, it must train law enforcement personnel to make independent judgments: those capable of thinking clearly under pressure, guided not by rigid directives but by the principles of justice. Third, it must embody moral clarity—a refusal to chase ideological bogeymen while real crimes fester. Fourth, it must be directly accountable, not to Ottawa ideals, not to abstract policy frameworks, but to Alberta communities and Alberta law. And finally, and most critically, it must protect Alberta’s distinct culture, which includes our deep concern for individual freedom, strong property rights, and a form of government that respects and serves its citizens as individuals.

But virtues alone won’t build a force. Institutions do that.

Founding a new institution requires the founding of new training ways. An Alberta Provincial Police would need a new, purpose-built academy curriculum, distinct in philosophy, to ensure a shift in policing culture, not just in uniforms and reporting lines. This new academy must include training in Alberta history, culture (and place Alberta law in its context), not as window dressing, but as the foundational context for service. The Ministry of Public Safety must understand that setting the DNA of a new force is not optional—it is paramount. No amount of administrative rebranding will protect Albertans if the force is trained in the same ideological water that floods federal institutions.

These are not theoretical ideals. They are the qualities that allow a free people to remain free. And if Alberta is to continue building something worthy, we might look—not uncritically, but carefully—at the best of what police forces beyond Ottawa’s offer.

Take the Texas Rangers, for example. While their early record contains severe stains, the Rangers in their more refined tradition offer a model of law enforcement that is local, deeply serious about justice, and wary of distant interference. They have long seen themselves not as agents of Washington, but as guardians of the Texan way of life. That distinction matters. It makes them accountable to the people they served, rather than to federal fashions or shifting ideological norms in Washington.

The old Ranger saying “One riot, one Ranger” was not a boast but an expectation. It meant that each officer was expected to act with competence, courage, and restraint. No sprawling command structure. No ten layers of liability-avoidance. Just principled responsibility, exercised by someone embedded in the land she served.

And that made all the difference.

What made the Rangers distinct was not their tactics, but their cultural placement. They thought like Texans because they were Texans. They acted with authority because their authority came from below, not above. They didn’t simply enforce laws; they protected a way of life.

That is the kind of institutional culture Alberta must create, one that sees policing as a defence of community, liberty, and order, not as an arm of political engineering designed elsewhere, even in Edmonton. Not a bureaucracy in new colours, but a corps of officers sworn to Alberta first.

If done well, an Alberta Provincial Police will be a shield against federal overreach, Laurentian cultural hostility, and the creeping conformity of federal institutions. If done poorly, it will be a clone of the RCMP with all its woke condescension toward Western rurals and independent thinkers.

Alberta cannot afford to get this wrong.

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Alberta

Alberta’s New School Library Guidelines Make Sense

Published on

From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Michael Zwaagstra

New rules on sexually explicit books in libraries ensure that students only have access to age-appropriate materials

Should books with sexually explicit content be in school libraries?

If your answer to this question is “no,” then you agree with the Government of Alberta’s recent ministerial order on school libraries. If your answer is “yes,” then you agree with the critics who oppose this order. It is that simple.

Judging by the reaction of the government’s critics, one might think the Alberta government had just enacted a sweeping book ban. However, the guidelines announced by Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides are clearly targeted at sexually explicit content. Unless you believe young children should have access to sexually explicit content at school, it makes little sense to oppose these new guidelines.

Lest one assume no school would allow sexually explicit content in its library, the Alberta government posted excerpts from four American books found in many Alberta school libraries. There is no question that the content in these books is sexually explicit, something any reasonable person can confirm.

The Alberta Teachers’ Association (ATA), which seems to oppose every announcement this government makes, issued a statement claiming these guidelines would “result in the removal of valuable and inclusive resources from our libraries.” However, it’s unlikely many parents think there’s anything valuable or inclusive about providing children with sexually explicit content.

In its news release, the ATA also argued these guidelines would “have a chilling effect on our schools and signal to students who are coming to understand themselves that some expressions of their gender and sexual identities are shameful and should be hidden away.”

However, these guidelines do not single out or target any gender identity or sexual orientation. Instead, the focus is entirely on books that contain sexually explicit content. Students will still be able to access books that portray a variety of gender identities and sexual orientations from their school libraries. Additionally, these guidelines do not apply to books that address topics such as puberty and menstruation.

Critics argue that these guidelines impose an unreasonable burden on school boards and distract them from more important issues. However, there is nothing unreasonable about requiring school boards to make clear what criteria they use when selecting books for their school libraries. Frankly, this should have already happened years ago.

Regarding the argument that these guidelines distract from more pressing issues in education, nothing in this announcement detracts from other current initiatives in Alberta schools. In fact, the announcement was made in July, one of the slowest times for the education system. If the government really wanted to distract from other issues, one might have expected this announcement to happen in September or October, when the school year is just beginning.

In addition, some school boards have been vocal in their support for these new guidelines. For example, Nicole Buchanan, chair of the board for Red Deer Public Schools, spoke in favour of the library guidelines at a provincial news conference. As part of her remarks, she said, “This isn’t about banning books or silencing voices. It’s about recognizing that some content simply isn’t appropriate in a K-12 setting.”

Buchanan is absolutely right. Just because some things are widely available to students outside of school doesn’t mean they must be accessible within school. For example, as a teacher, I understand many students watch television shows and YouTube videos that contain plenty of profanity. However, that doesn’t mean it’s appropriate for me to use the same words or show the same videos in class.

As a society, we recognize that schools have a responsibility to protect students and ensure they are exposed to positive influences. While we cannot control what students do outside of school, there is certainly an expectation that any content we provide to students in school is age-appropriate. This is true whether we are in the classroom or in the school library.

The Alberta government did the right thing when it introduced guidelines for school libraries. There is nothing unreasonable about ensuring students, particularly those in elementary school, are not exposed to sexually explicit content in school.

Parents and students deserve no less. The Alberta government has made the right decision.

Michael Zwaagstra is a public high school teacher and a senior fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

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