Energy
Federal Clean Power Plan Risks Blackouts And Higher Bills
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
Ottawa’s Clean Electricity Regulations could derail Canada’s energy future. Here’s what we need to do
The federal government’s push to make Canada’s electricity system net-zero is running straight into reality—and it’s not pretty.
Through the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), the government wants all provinces to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation by 2035. It is an ambitious goal, but one that ignores a basic fact: demand for electricity is exploding, and provinces are struggling to keep up.
New technologies like artificial intelligence are supercharging this demand. AI systems, including tools such as ChatGPT, rely on massive data centres—huge warehouses of computer servers that need constant cooling and enormous amounts of electricity to function. According to a recent Royal Bank of Canada report, if all proposed data centre projects in Canada move ahead, they would consume 14 per cent of the country’s entire electricity supply by 2030. That is roughly the same as projections in the United States, where data centres are expected to use up to 15 per cent of the national total.
This is a serious problem. Provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan have already raised the alarm, arguing that the federal regulations overstep Ottawa’s constitutional authority. Energy supply, like natural resources, has traditionally been under provincial control. Alberta and Ontario operate their own electricity markets to attract investment and ensure reliability. Federal regulations threaten to undermine these efforts, adding risk and driving up costs.
The situation is already tense. Alberta, for example, issued multiple grid alerts in 2024 due to shortages and market disruptions. The province is now looking at “behind-the-fence” power solutions, encouraging data centres to generate their own electricity to guarantee stability.
Canada was not always in this bind. For decades, we enjoyed an abundance of clean, affordable hydroelectric power. Provinces like Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador built massive hydro projects starting in the 1960s, creating cheap power and even surpluses to export to U.S. markets. In 2022, for example, B.C. sent 74 per cent of its exported power to the U.S., while Quebec sent 63 per cent and Ontario an impressive 81 per cent, generating billions in revenue.
But that era is coming to an end. Most of the best sites for hydro dams have already been developed. New projects would require expensive, long-distance transmission lines to bring power from remote areas to the cities that need it. On top of that, growing environmental concerns make new dam construction an uphill battle.
The truth is, there is no quick fix. A 2025 study by the Fraser Institute paints a grim picture: to meet future electricity demand solely with solar power would require 1,680 years of construction. Wind power? About 1,150 years. Even hydro would take close to a millennium. Even if we combined these sources, we are still looking at more than 1,000 years to build enough capacity.
Meanwhile, federal projections estimate that Canada’s electricity demand will double by 2050.
Without significant policy changes, Canadians could soon face the worst of both worlds: soaring electricity bills and the threat of power shortages. Our economy could also suffer as companies and data centres look to other jurisdictions with more reliable power supplies.
So what should Canada do? Here are three practical steps:
- Scrap the Clean Electricity Regulations. Provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan are already committed to reaching net-zero by 2050. Federal interference only creates unnecessary political battles and delays investments.
- Fast-track approvals for new interprovincial transmission lines. Today, building a new transmission line can take more than a decade. Speeding up this process would help provinces share power and avoid costly overbuilding of generation capacity.
- Launch a major low-interest loan program to build new power infrastructure. We need to dramatically expand our generation and transmission systems, including natural gas-fired plants, to meet future demand.
Canadians deserve a reliable, affordable and clean energy future. But we will not get there by ignoring the realities of rising demand and provincial responsibilities. It is time for the federal government to listen to the provinces, embrace practical solutions and avoid an avoidable crisis.
Otherwise, we are on track for blackouts, higher bills and missed economic opportunities.
Maureen McCall is an energy business analyst and Fellow at the Frontier Center for Public Policy. She writes on energy issues for EnergyNow and the BOE Report. She has 20 years of experience as a business analyst for national and international energy companies in Canada.
“If Ottawa had it’s way Albertans would be left to freeze in the dark”
The ineffective federal net-zero electricity regulations will not reduce emissions or benefit Albertans but will increase costs and lead to supply shortages.
The risk of power outages during a hot summer or the depths of harsh winter cold snaps, are not unrealistic outcomes if these regulations are implemented. According to the Alberta Electric System Operator’s analysis, the regulations in question would make Alberta’s electricity system more than 100 times less reliable than the province’s supply adequacy standard. Albertans expect their electricity to remain affordable and reliable, but implementation of these regulations could increase costs by a staggering 35 per cent.
Canada’s constitution is clear. Provinces have exclusive jurisdiction over the development, conservation and management of sites and facilities in the province for the generation and production of electrical energy. That is why Alberta’s government is referring the constitutionality of the federal government’s recent net-zero electricity regulations to the Court of Appeal of Alberta.
“The federal government refused to work collaboratively or listen to Canadians while developing these regulations. The results are ineffective, unachievable and irresponsible, and place Albertans’ livelihoods – and more importantly, lives – at significant risk. Our government will not accept unconstitutional net-zero regulations that leave Albertans vulnerable to blackouts in the middle of summer and winter when they need electricity the most.”
“The introduction of the Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta by the federal government is another example of dangerous federal overreach. These regulations will create unpredictable power outages in the months when Albertans need reliable energy the most. They will also cause power prices to soar in Alberta, which will hit our vulnerable the hardest.”
Finalized in December 2024, the federal electricity regulations impose strict carbon limits on fossil fuel power, in an attempt to force a net-zero grid, an unachievable target given current technology and infrastructure. The reliance on unproven technologies makes it almost impossible to operate natural gas plants without costly upgrades, threatening investment, grid reliability, and Alberta’s energy security.
“Ottawa’s electricity regulations will leave Albertans in the dark. They aren’t about reducing emissions – they are unconstitutional, ideological activist policies based on standards that can’t be met and technology that doesn’t exist. It will drive away investment and punish businesses, provinces and families for using natural gas for reliable, dispatchable power. We will not put families at risk from safety and affordability impacts – rationing power during the coldest days of the year – and we will continue to stand up for Albertans.”
“Albertans depend on electricity to provide for their families, power their businesses and pursue their dreams. The federal government’s Clean Electricity Regulations threaten both the affordability and reliability of our power grid, and we will not stand by as these regulations put the well-being of Albertans at risk.”
Related information
- Conference Board of Canada socio-economic Impacts of Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan – (April 2025)
- Alberta Electric System Operator’s position on Canadian Energy Regulations
Oh, Canada
We find it endlessly fascinating that most Canadians believe they live in a representative democracy, where aspiring candidates engage in authentic politicking to earn their place in office. So accustomed are Canada’s power brokers to getting their way, they rarely bother to cover their tracks. A careful reading of the notoriously pliant Canadian press makes anticipating future events in the country surprisingly straightforward.
Back in December, when Pierre Poilievre was given better than 90% odds of replacing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau—and Mark Carney was still just an uncharismatic banker few had heard of—we engaged in some not-so-speculative dot-connecting and correctly predicted Carney’s rise to the top spot. Our interest was driven by the notoriously rocky relationship between Ottawa and the Province of Alberta, home to one of the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves, and how Carney’s rise might be a catalyst for resetting Canada’s energy trajectory. In a follow-up article titled “The Fix Is In,” we laid out a few more predictions:
“Here’s how the play is likely to unfold in the weeks and months ahead: Carney will be elected Prime Minister on April 28 by a comfortable margin; [Alberta Premier Danielle] Smith will trigger a constitutional crisis, providing cover for Carney to strike a grand bargain that finally resolves longstanding tensions between the provinces and Ottawa; and large infrastructure permitting reform will fall into place. Protests against these developments will be surprisingly muted, and those who do take to the streets will be largely ignored by the media. The entire effort will be wrapped in a thicket of patriotism, with Trump portrayed as a threat even greater than climate change itself. References to carbon emissions will slowly fade…
In parallel, we expect Trump and Carney to swiftly strike a favorable deal on tariffs, padding the latter’s bona fides just as his political capital will be most needed.”
The votes have barely been counted, yet the next moves are already unfolding…
“Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she’ll make it easier for citizens to initiate a referendum on the province’s future in Canada, after warning that a Liberal win in Monday’s election could spur a groundswell of support for Alberta separatism. Smith said on Tuesday that a newly tabled elections bill will give everyday Albertans a bigger say in the province’s affairs.
‘(We’re giving) Albertans more ways to be directly involved in democracy, and to have their say on issues that matter to them,’ Smith told reporters in Edmonton.
If passed, the new law would dramatically lower the number of signatures needed to put a citizen-proposed constitutional referendum question on the ballot, setting a new threshold of 10 per cent of general election turnout — or just over 175,000, based on Alberta’s last provincial election in 2023.”
“US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is looking to make a trade deal and will visit the White House within the next week. Trump said he congratulated Carney on his election victory when the Canadian leader called on Tuesday.
‘He called me up yesterday – he said let’s make a deal,’ Trump told reporters at the White House after a televised Cabinet meeting.”
Remember where you read it first.
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