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Fear of US recession drives global market turmoil

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From The Center Square

“This is a preview of the world markets without Donald J. Trump in the White House. None of this happens if Trump is in. Kamala and the markets don’t go together,” Trump said

The U.S. stock market took a major dive Monday as Japan saw its worst stock market day since 1987, raising recessing fears and drawing fresh criticism for President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

As of Monday morning, the Dow had dropped 900 points and the Nasdaq a whopping 4%, which experts say is fueled by a fear of a coming recession.

Federal jobs data released on Friday showed far fewer jobs were created than expected.

Overseas conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, possibly imminent all-out war between Iran and Israel and the ongoing threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are also constant stability concerns for global markets.

Former President Donald Trump released a flurry of posts blaming Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, for the market downturn, labeling it the “Kamala crash.”

“This is a preview of the world markets without Donald J. Trump in the White House. None of this happens if Trump is in. Kamala and the markets don’t go together,” Trump said in a post online Monday morning. “She’ll destroy the markets. She’s in power now and look at what is happening. One week of the fake media saying better polls and you get a market crash.”

In 2020, Trump predicted that if Biden were to win reelection, the stock market would “crash.”

“Of course there is a massive market downturn,” Trump said. “Kamala is even worse than Crooked Joe. Markets will NEVER accept the Radical Left Lunatic that DESTROYED San Francisco and California, as a whole. Next move, THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 2024! You can’t play games with MARKETS. KAMALA CRASH!!!”

U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, Trump’s pick for Vice President, warned that the economic situation could get much worse if it is not handled well.

“This moment could set off a real economic calamity around the globe,” Vance wrote no X, formerly known as Twitter. “It requires steady leadership–the kind President Trump delivered for four years. Kamala Harris is too afraid to answer media questions and cannot lead us in these troubled times.”

Renowned investor Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway said over the weekend that he had sold over half his stock in Apple, which subsequently saw a 5% decrease in its stock price.

“He is clearly expecting a correction of some kind or otherwise simply cannot see better investments than Treasury bills,” Billionaire Elon Musk wrote on X Sunday in response to the news. “The Fed needs to drop rates. They have been foolish not to have done so already.”

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To increase competition in Canadian banking, mandate and mindset of bank regulators must change

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From the Fraser Institute

By Lawrence L. Schembri and Andrew Spence

Canada’s weak productivity performance is directly related to the lack of competition across many concentrated industries. The high cost of financial services is a key contributor to our lagging living standards because services, such as payments, are essential input to the rest of our economy.

It’s well known that Canada’s banks are expensive and the services that they provide are outdated, especially compared to the banking systems of the United Kingdom and Australia that have better balanced the objectives of stability, competition and efficiency.

Canada’s banks are increasingly being called out by senior federal officials for not embracing new technology that would lower costs and improve productivity and living standards. Peter Rutledge, the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and senior officials at the Bank of Canada, notably Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent, have called for measures to increase competition in the banking system to promote innovation, efficiency and lower prices for financial services.

The recent federal budget proposed several new measures to increase competition in the Canadian banking sector, which are long overdue. As a marker of how uncompetitive the market for financial services has become, the budget proposed direct interventions to reduce and even eliminate some bank service fees. In addition, the budget outlined a requirement to improve price and fee transparency for many transactions so consumers can make informed choices.

In an effort to reduce barriers to new entrants and to growth by smaller banks, the budget also proposed to ease the requirement that small banks include more public ownership in their capital structure.

At long last, the federal government signalled a commitment to (finally) introduce open banking by enacting the long-delayed Consumer Driven Banking Act. Open banking gives consumers full control over who they want to provide them with their financial services needs efficiently and safely. Consumers can then move beyond banks, utilizing technology to access cheaper and more efficient alternative financial service providers.

Open banking has been up and running in many countries around the world to great success. Canada lags far behind the U.K., Australia and Brazil where the presence of open banking has introduced lower prices, better service quality and faster transactions. It has also brought financing to small and medium-sized business who are often shut out of bank lending.

Realizing open banking and its gains requires a new payment mechanism called real time rail. This payment system delivers low-cost and immediate access to nonbank as well as bank financial service providers. Real time rail has been in the works in Canada for over a decade, but progress has been glacial and lags far behind the world’s leaders.

Despite the budget’s welcome backing for open banking, Canada should address the legislative mandates of its most important regulators, requiring them to weigh equally the twin objectives of financial system stability as well as competition and efficiency.

To better balance these objectives, Canada needs to reform its institutional framework to enhance the resilience of the overall banking system so it can absorb an individual bank failure at acceptable cost. This would encourage bank regulators to move away from a rigid “fear of failure” cultural mindset that suppresses competition and efficiency and has held back innovation and progress.

Canada should also reduce the compliance burden imposed on banks by the many and varied regulators to reduce barriers to entry and expansion by domestic and foreign banks. These agencies, including the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada, the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation plus several others, act in largely uncoordinated manner and their duplicative effort greatly increases compliance and reporting costs. While Canada’s large banks are able, because of their market power, to pass those costs through to their customers via higher prices and fees, they also benefit because the heavy compliance burden represents a significant barrier to entry that shelters them from competition.

More fundamental reforms are needed, beyond the measures included in the federal budget, to strengthen the institutional framework and change the regulatory mindset. Such reforms would meaningfully increase competition, efficiency and innovation in the Canadian banking system, simultaneously improving the quality and lowering the cost of financial services, and thus raising productivity and the living standards of Canadians.

Lawrence L. Schembri

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

Andrew Spence

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