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Estonia’s solution to Canada’s stagnating economic growth

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From the Fraser Institute

By Callum MacLeod and Jake Fuss

The only taxes corporations face are on profits they distribute to shareholders. This allows the profits of Estonian firms to be reinvested tax-free permitting higher returns for entrepreneurs.

new study found that the current decline in living standards is one of the worst in Canada’s recent history. While the economy has grown, it hasn’t kept pace with Canada’s surging population, which means gross domestic product (GDP) per person is on a downward trajectory. Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, points to Canada’s productivity crisis as one of the primary reasons for this stagnation.

Productivity is a key economic indicator that measures how much output workers produce per hour of work. Rising productivity is associated with higher wages and greater standards of living, but growth in Canadian productivity has been sluggish: from 2002 to 2022 American productivity grew 160 per cent faster than Canadian productivity.

While Canada’s productivity issues are multifaceted, Rogers pointed to several sources of the problem in a recent speech. Primarily, she highlighted strong business investment as an imperative to productivity growth, and an area in which Canada has continually fallen short. There is no silver bullet to revive faltering investment, but tax reform would be a good start. Taxes can have a significant effect on business incentives and investment, but Canada’s tax system has largely stood in the way of economic progress.

With recent hikes in the capital gains tax rate and sky-high compliance costs, Canada’s taxes continue to hinder its growth. Canada’s primary competitor is the United States, which has considerably lower tax rates. Canada’s rates on personal income and businesses are similarly uncompetitive when compared to other advanced economies around the globe. Uncompetitive taxes in Canada prompt investment, businesses, and workers to relocate to jurisdictions with lower taxes.

The country of Estonia offers one of the best models for tax reform. The small Baltic state has a unique tax system that puts it at the top of the Tax Foundation’s tax competitiveness index. Estonia has lower effective tax rates than Canada—so it doesn’t discourage work the way Canada does—but more interestingly, its business tax model doesn’t punish investment the way Canada’s does.

Their business tax system is a distributed profits tax system, meaning that the only taxes corporations face are on profits they distribute to shareholders. This allows the profits of Estonian firms to be reinvested tax-free permitting higher returns for entrepreneurs.

The demand for investment is especially strong for capital-intensive companies such as information, communications, and technology (ICT) enterprises, which are some of the most productive in today’s economy. A Bank of Canada report highlighted the lack of ICT investment as a major contributor to Canada’s sluggish growth in the 21st century.

While investment is important, another ingredient to economic growth is entrepreneurship. Estonia’s tax system ensures entrepreneurs are rewarded for success and the result is that  Estonians start significantly more businesses than Canadians. In 2023, for every 1,000 people, Estonia had 17.8 business startups, while Canada had only 4.9. This trend is even worse for ICT companies, Estonians start 45 times more ICT businesses than Canadians on a per capita basis.

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor’s (GEM) 2023/24 report on entrepreneurship confirms that a large part of this difference comes from government policy and taxation. Canada ranked below Estonia on all 13 metrics of the Entrepreneurial Framework. Notably, Estonia scored above Canada when taxes, bureaucracy, burdens and regulation were measured.

While there’s no easy solution to Canada’s productivity crisis, a better tax regime wouldn’t penalize investment and entrepreneurship as much as our current system does. This would allow Canadians to be more productive, ultimately improving living standards. Estonia’s business tax system is a good example of how to promote economic growth. Examples of successful tax structures, such as Estonia’s, should prompt a conversation about how Canadian governments could improve economic outcomes for citizens.

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Feds pull the plug on small business grants to Minnesota after massive fraud reports

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The Small Business Administration is moving to freeze grant money flowing into Minnesota after explosive allegations of large-scale fraud tied to state oversight failures, with SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler signaling an immediate crackdown following recent independent reporting.

In a series of comments shared publicly by conservative commentator Benny Johnson, Loeffler said the agency is “cutting off and clawing back” SBA grants to the state while investigators dig deeper into what she described as a rapidly expanding fraud network.

Johnson wrote that Loeffler told him she was “disgusted and sickened” after reviewing footage from YouTuber Nick Shirley, whose on-the-ground reporting in Minnesota highlighted what he said were sham daycare and learning centers collecting millions in public funds despite showing little or no sign of legitimate operations.

According to Johnson, Loeffler blamed the situation on Democrat Gov. Tim Walz, accusing his administration of refusing to enforce basic rules governing small businesses and allowing fraud to flourish unchecked.

Johnson said Loeffler told him SBA investigators were able to identify roughly half a billion dollars in suspected fraud within days of focusing on Minnesota, calling the operation an “industrial-scale crime ring” that ripped off American taxpayers.

“Pending further review, SBA is freezing all grant funding to the state in order to stop the rampant waste of taxpayer dollars and uncover the full depth of fraud,” Loeffler said, according to Johnson’s account, adding that the total scope of the scheme remains unknown and could reach into the billions.

The controversy gained national traction after Shirley posted video of himself visiting multiple facilities, including a South Minneapolis site known as the Quality Learning Center, which he reported was approved for federal aid for up to 99 children but appeared inactive during normal business hours.

The center’s sign, Shirley noted, even misspelled the word “learning” as “learing.”

In the footage, a woman inside the building is heard shouting “Don’t open up,” falsely claiming Shirley and his colleague were Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.

After the video circulated, Rep. Tom Emmer, a Republican, publicly demanded answers from Walz, questioning how such facilities were approved for millions in taxpayer funding.

Shirley’s reporting followed earlier investigations, including a November report by City Journal alleging that members of Minnesota’s Somali community had sent millions of dollars in stolen taxpayer funds overseas, with some of that money reportedly ending up in the hands of Al-Shabaab, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization.

While Walz’s administration has insisted it takes fraud seriously, the SBA’s decision to halt grant funding marks one of the most aggressive federal responses yet, underscoring how rapidly a local scandal has escalated into a national reckoning over oversight, enforcement, and accountability in Minnesota.

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Stripped and shipped: Patel pushes denaturalization, deportation in Minnesota fraud

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FBI Director Kash Patel issued a blunt warning over the weekend as federal investigators continue unraveling a sprawling fraud operation centered in Minnesota, saying the hundreds of millions already uncovered represent “just the tip of a very large iceberg.”

In a lengthy statement posted to social media, Patel said the Federal Bureau of Investigation had quietly surged agents and investigative resources into the state well before the scandal gained traction online. That effort, he said, led to the takedown of an estimated $250 million fraud scheme that stole federal food aid intended for vulnerable children during the COVID pandemic.

According to Patel, the investigation exposed a network of sham vendors, shell companies, and large-scale money laundering operations tied to the Feeding Our Future case. Defendants named by the FBI include Abdiwahab Ahmed Mohamud, Ahmed Ali, Hussein Farah, Abdullahe Nur Jesow, Asha Farhan Hassan, Ousman Camara, and Abdirashid Bixi Dool, each charged with offenses ranging from wire fraud to conspiracy and money laundering.

Patel also said Abdimajid Mohamed Nur and others were charged in a separate attempt to bribe a juror with $120,000 in cash. He noted that several related cases have already resulted in guilty pleas, prison sentences of up to 10 years, and nearly $48 million in restitution orders.

Despite those outcomes, Patel warned the case is far from finished.

“The FBI believes this is just the tip of a very large iceberg,” he said, adding that investigators will continue following the money and that the probe remains ongoing. Patel further confirmed that many of those convicted are being referred to immigration authorities for possible denaturalization and deportation proceedings where legally applicable.

The renewed focus follows a viral video circulated by independent journalist Nick Shirley, which appeared to show multiple childcare and learning centers operating as empty or nonfunctional storefronts. The footage sparked immediate backlash from Republicans, including Vice President JD Vance.

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer accused Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz of sitting idle while massive sums were stolen from taxpayers. Walz addressed the allegations during a November press conference, before the full scope of the fraud became public, saying the scandal “undermines trust in government” and threatens programs meant to help vulnerable residents.

“If you’re committing fraud, no matter where you come from or what you believe, you are going to go to jail,” Walz said at the time.

Authorities say the alleged schemes date back to at least 2015, beginning with overbilling Minnesota’s Child Care Assistance Program and later expanding into Medicaid-funded disability and housing programs. One such housing initiative, aimed at helping seniors and disabled residents secure stable housing, was shut down earlier this year after officials cited what they described as large-scale fraud.

The fallout has already reached the federal level. Last month, President Trump announced the suspension of Temporary Protected Status for Somali nationals, arguing that Minnesota had become a hub for organized welfare fraud and money laundering activity.

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