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Crime

Despite recent bail reform flip-flops, Canada is still more dangerous than we’d prefer

Published

1 year ago

6 minute read

The Audit

 David Clinton

Our Criminal Justice System Is Changing

58 percent of individuals sentenced to community supervision had at least one prior conviction for a violent offence. 68 percent of those given custodial sentences were similarly repeat offenders. In fact, 59 percent of offenders serving custodial sentences had previously been convicted at least 10 times.

Back in 2019, the federal Liberals passed Bill C-75, “An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Youth Criminal Justice Act and other Acts”. Among other things, the law established a Principle of Restraint that required courts to minimize unnecessary pre-trial detention. This has been characterized as a form of “catch and release” that sacrifices public safety in general, and victims’ rights in particular on the altar of social justice.

I’m no lawyer, but I can’t see how the legislation’s actual language supports that interpretation. In fact, as we can see from the government’s official overview of the law, courts must still give serious consideration to public safety:

The amendments…legislate a “principle of restraint” for police and courts to ensure that release at the earliest opportunity is favoured over detention, that bail conditions are reasonable, relevant to the offence and necessary to ensure public safety, and that sureties are imposed only when less onerous forms of release are inadequate.

So unlike in some U.S. jurisdictions, Canadian courts are still able use their discretion to restrict an accused’s freedom. That’s not to say everyone’s always happy with how Canadian judges choose to use such discretion, but judicial outcomes appear to lie in their hands, rather than with legislation.

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Arguably, C-75 did come with a “soft-on-crime” tone (in particular as the law relates to certain minority communities). But even that was mostly reversed by 2023’s Bill C-48, which introduced reverse onus for repeat offenders and required judges to explicitly consider the safety of the community (whatever that means).

Nevertheless, the system is clearly far from perfect. Besides the occasional high-profile news reports about offenders committing new crimes while awaiting trials for previous offences, the population-level data suggests that our streets are not nearly as safe as they should be.

As far as I can tell, Statistics Canada doesn’t publish numbers on repeat offences committed by offenders free while waiting for trial. But I believe we can get at least part of the way there using two related data points:

  • Conviction rates
  • Repeat offender rates

Between 2019 and 2023, conviction rates across Canada on homicide charges for adults averaged 42 percent, while similar charges against youth offenders resulted in convictions in 65 percent of cases. That means we can safely assume that a significant proportion of accused offenders were, in fact, criminally violent even before reaching trial.

We can use different Statistics Canada data to understand how likely it is that those accused offenders will re-offend while on pre-trial release:

58 percent of individuals sentenced to community supervision (through either conditional sentences or probation) had at least one prior conviction for a violent offence. 68 percent of those given custodial sentences were similarly repeat offenders. In fact, 59 percent of offenders serving custodial sentences had previously been convicted at least 10 times.

Also, in the three years following a term of community supervision, 15.6 percent of offenders were convicted for new violent crimes. For offenders coming out of custodial sentences, that rate was 30.2 percent.

In other words:

  • Many – if not most – people charged with serious crimes turn out to be guilty
  • It’s relatively rare for violent criminals to offend just once.

Together, those two conclusions suggest that public safety would be best served by immediately incarcerating all people charged with violent offences and keeping them “inside” either until they’re declared innocent or their sentences end. That, however, would be impossible. For one thing, we just don’t have space in our prisons to handle the load (or the money to fund it). And it would also often trample on the legitimate civil rights of accused individuals.

This is a serious problem without any obvious pull-the-trigger-and-you’re-done solutions. But here are some possible considerations:

  • Implement improved risk assessment and predictive analytics tools to evaluate the likelihood of re-offending.
  • Improve the reliability of non-custodial measures such as electronic monitoring and house arrest that incorporate real-time tracking and immediate intervention capabilities
  • Improve parole and probation systems to ensure effective monitoring and support for offenders released into the community. (Warning: expensive!)
  • Optimize data analytics to identify trends, allocate resources efficiently, and measure the effectiveness of various interventions.

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Crime

Public Execution of Anti-Cartel Mayor in Michoacán Prompts U.S. Offer to Intervene Against Cartels

Published on November 2, 2025

By

Sam Cooper's avatar Sam Cooper

“I don’t want to be just another mayor on the list of those executed”

On the first night of November, during Day of the Dead celebrations, the independent, anti-cartel mayor of Uruapan in Michoacán, Carlos Manzo, was assassinated in the heart of his city during a public festival. His bloody murder has underscored the deadly risks faced by local officials who may lack adequate protection from a state that critics say is corroded by corruption and penetrated by powerful cartel networks that, in some regions, have supplanted government authority. The killing intensifies urgent questions about political and police corruption, cartel impunity, and the scope of U.S.–Mexico security cooperation — with a response from the U.S. State Department today offering to “deepen security cooperation with Mexico.”

Manzo, a fiercely outspoken anti-cartel mayor who took office in 2024 as Uruapan’s first independent leader, was gunned down as he stood before crowds at the annual Day of the Dead candlelight celebration. Witnesses said gunfire erupted shortly after Manzo appeared onstage, holding his young son moments before the attack. The festival, known locally as the Festival de las Velas, drew hundreds of families to Uruapan’s central plaza — now transformed into the scene of Mexico’s latest high-profile political assassination, and a catalyst for nationwide outrage, as online protests surged and citizens called for demonstrations against cartel violence.

According to early reports, at least two suspects have been detained and one attacker was killed on site. Authorities asserted — despite the success of the attack — that Manzo had been under National Guard protection since December 2024, with additional reinforcements added in May 2025 following credible threats to his life.

In Washington today, the killing drew political reaction. “My thoughts are with the family and friends of Carlos Manzo, mayor of Uruapan, Michoacán, Mexico, who was assassinated at a public Day of the Dead celebration last night. The United States stands ready to deepen security cooperation with Mexico to wipe out organized crime on both sides of the border,” Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, the former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, said in a statement shared online.

Federal Security Minister Omar García Harfuch said the gunmen “took advantage of the vulnerability of a public event” to carry out the attack, despite a standing security perimeter.

President Claudia Sheinbaum condemned the killing as a “vile” assault on democracy and vowed there would be “zero impunity.” Her administration convened an emergency security meeting and pledged that the investigation would reach the “intellectual authors” of the crime. Yet the murder has already ignited outrage across Mexico over the government’s failure to protect local officials in cartel-dominated states such as Michoacán, where extortion, assassinations, and territorial disputes continue to erode basic governance.

Manzo had publicly warned of his fate. “I don’t want to be just another mayor on the list of those executed,” he said earlier this year, as he pressed the federal government for better coordination between municipal and military authorities. For years, Uruapan — an agricultural and trade hub in western Mexico — has been the site of deadly clashes between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and remnants of the Knights Templar Organization, both vying to control lucrative extortion and drug routes.

The killing of Manzo fits a dark and familiar pattern. In 2025 alone, several mayors in Michoacán, Guerrero, and Tamaulipas have been killed in attacks widely attributed to organized-crime groups. In June, the mayors of Tepalcatepec and Tacámbaro were ambushed and slain while traveling in official convoys. More than 90 local officials have been murdered since 2018 — a rate that analysts say reflects how cartels target municipal governments to ensure political control over territories tied to narcotics, mining, and agriculture. Uruapan, at the heart of Mexico’s avocado belt, is a strategic prize for the cartels that tax every shipment leaving the region.

The mayor’s death also recalls earlier tragedies that scarred the nation. In 2012, Dr. María Santos Gorrostieta Salazar, the former mayor of Tiquicheo, was abducted and murdered after surviving two assassination attempts and defying cartel threats. Her death became emblematic of the dangers faced by reformers who refuse to cooperate with criminal groups. More than a decade later, Manzo’s murder illustrates that little has changed — except the brazenness of the attackers, now willing to strike in front of cameras and families celebrating one of Mexico’s most sacred holidays.

The killing has also reignited long-standing U.S. frustration over Mexico’s inability to stem cartel violence, even as the Trump administration has expanded counter-narcotics operations at the border. Under Trump’s renewed directives, the U.S. has classified several Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and empowered the Pentagon to develop strike options against high-value targets abroad. A September 2025 joint statement between Washington and Mexico City pledged deeper intelligence sharing and cross-border enforcement initiatives, including efforts to halt arms trafficking southward.

However, Mexico’s government remains deeply wary of any U.S. military involvement on its soil. President Sheinbaum has warned that “Mexico will not stand for an invasion in the name of counter-cartel operations,” rebuffing Republican calls for unilateral action. Her position lays bare a long-standing tension between Mexico’s need for U.S. support and its insistence on sovereignty — a fault line that Manzo’s killing has reignited.

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Crime

Canada Seizes 4,300 Litres of Chinese Drug Precursors Amid Trump’s Tariff Pressure Over Fentanyl Flows

Published on October 30, 2025

By

Sam Cooper's avatar Sam Cooper

In what appears to be the second-largest Chinese precursor-chemical seizure in British Columbia in the past decade, Canadian border and police officials announced they intercepted more than 4,300 litres of chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl and other synthetic drugs at a notoriously troubled port in Delta, B.C.

The announcement of a seizure that occurred in May 2025 comes amid President Donald Trump’s continuing pressure on Ottawa to crack down on fentanyl trafficking in the province — which U.S. officials say has become a key production and shipment point for Chinese and Mexican traffickers.

The seizure — announced jointly by the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and the RCMP — underscores the scale and persistence of global trafficking networks funnelling illicit materials into Canada’s drug markets.

According to the agencies, border officers examined two marine containers that arrived from China in mid-May, both bound for Calgary, Alberta. Acting on intelligence developed by CBSA’s Pacific Region, officers discovered 3,600 litres of 1,4 Butanediol, a key ingredient for producing GHB, often known as the “date-rape drug”; 500 litres of Propionyl Chloride, a chemical precursor used to synthesize fentanyl; and 200 litres of Gamma Butyrolactone (GBL), another controlled intoxicant.

The chemicals were concealed inside 60 clear jugs and 20 blue drums within the containers. Investigators believe the shipment was intended for use in clandestine drug laboratories. The RCMP confirmed that an investigation into the importation network remains ongoing.

The seizure comes amid growing concern about Canada’s port security, particularly in Metro Vancouver, where experts and local officials say criminal networks are exploiting gaps in federal enforcement.

The Delta seizure follows a series of major CBSA operations targeting precursor chemicals at Pacific ports. In May 2022, CBSA officers in the Metro Vancouver District examined a container from China declared as “toys” and discovered 1,133 kilograms of the fentanyl-precursor chemical Propionyl Chloride, with the potential to produce more than a billion doses of fentanyl.

Public Safety Canada also reported that in the first half of 2021, CBSA seized more than 5,000 kilograms of precursor chemicals, compared with just 512 kilograms in 2020 — reflecting what officials called a “dramatic escalation” in attempts to smuggle fentanyl inputs into the country.

In 2023, the City of Delta released a report highlighting major vulnerabilities at port terminal facilities, warning that there is “literally no downside” for organized criminals to infiltrate port operations. The report noted that British Columbia’s provincial threat assessment rated ports as highly susceptible to corruption and organized-crime infiltration.

At the time, Delta Mayor George Harvie called the lack of a dedicated national port-policing force “a threat to national security.” In comments to the Canadian Press, Harvie said that while Canada’s ports fall under federal jurisdiction, the “total absence of uniformed police at the facilities makes them obvious targets for criminal elements — from Mexican drug cartels to biker gangs.”

“We’re witnessing a relentless flow of illegal drugs, weapons and contraband into Canada through our ports, and that threatens our national security,” Harvie said.

The Port of Vancouver complex, which includes major terminals in Delta, Surrey, and Vancouver, handles roughly three million containers annually, with millions more expected as port expansion plans move forward.

The Delta report reiterated how difficult it has become to police these sprawling operations since the Ports Canada Police were disbanded in 1997. More than a quarter-century later, Harvie said, the consequences of that decision are now “alarmingly clear.”

The CBSA announcement today comes as U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian exports, accusing Ottawa of failing to interdict the flow of fentanyl and precursor chemicals trafficked through British Columbia ports. Washington has repeatedly pressed Canada to strengthen port enforcement and anti-money-laundering controls, citing the West Coast’s role in China- and Mexico-linked trafficking networks.

Simultaneously, in trade negotiations with Beijing, Mr. Trump announced a reduction in tariffs tied to the fentanyl supply chain — raising concern that Washington has eased pressure on China, the primary source of finished fentanyl now responsible for hundreds of thousands of overdose deaths across North America.

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