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Carney government’s throne speech—different delivery, same old approach to policy

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

For the first time in nearly 70 years, the speech from the throne—which marks the opening of a new Parliament and lays out the government’s policy priorities for the coming term—was delivered directly by Canada’s sovereign, King Charles III, as opposed to the governor general (his representative in Canada). A key theme throughout the speech was the idea of change, and that the Carney government has the opportunity to transform the Canadian economy.

But while Canada certainly needs change, peeling back the rhetoric reveals the government plans to utilize much of the same strategies as its predecessor when addressing the country’s problems. Consider the following three examples.

A New Fiscal Approach

Throughout the election, and again during the throne speech, the Carney government promised a new fiscal principle that will guide all of its actions—“spend less to invest more.” This “new fiscal discipline” is intended to depart from the fiscal approach of the previous government—which Prime Minister Mark Carney has said spent “too much.” To “spend less,” the government plans to split spending into two separate budgets—an operating and capital budget—and slow growth in operating spending to balance the operating budget over the next three years.

The problem is the government’s fiscal math simply doesn’t add up. In the speech, the government commits to major new investments in national defence and law enforcement, and personal income tax cuts—all of which put pressure on the budget. The government rightly identifies the need to cut spending elsewhere to offset this pressure, but essentially hamstrings efforts to rein in spending by taking approximately three-quarters of the budget—including (but not limited to) all transfers to provinces, territories and individuals, and major programs such as national dental care, pharmacare and daycare—off the table.

What is the result of the Carney government’s new fiscal approach? The government will spend more in total, run larger deficits and take on more debt over the next four years than was previously planned by the Trudeau government. Constantly hitting the gas on spending and debt is the same strategy that Carney’s predecessor employed time and time again.

Building the Strongest Economy in the G7

According to the throne speech, the government’s “core mission” is to “build the strongest economy in the G7.” Part of the government’s plan to do this is by removing internal trade barriers—something that has been long overdue—but there’s only so much the federal government can do, as much of the work must be done by the provinces. Missing from the speech was a comprehensive plan to reform and reduce taxes to promote economic growth, along with a clear commitment to dismantle the costly regulatory regime of the Trudeau government.

Canada’s tax system represents a significant drag on the Canadian economy, and while the Carney government plans to lower the bottom federal personal income tax (PIT) rate from 15 per cent to 14 per cent, this change will do little to increase economic growth because it will not meaningfully improve the economic incentives to work, save and invest, nor will it make Canada much better at attracting and retaining professionals, business owners and entrepreneurs. More ambitious and broad-based reforms and tax cuts are needed to make a meaningful impact on growth.

Similarly, it’s unclear whether the Carney government is willing to meaningfully depart from the regulatory regime of the Trudeau government. A number of studies have highlighted how overburdensome regulations implemented under the previous government (including Bill C-69 and the federal emissions cap) act as a major deterrent for the investments and projects needed to grow the economy.

However, despite the Carney government’s commitments to “catalyze” investments and projects while making Canada an “energy superpower,” the government has sent mixed signals regarding its willingness to significantly depart from the previous government’s approach to regulation and the energy sector.

Expanding Role of Federal Government

During the last decade under the Trudeau government, Canada experienced one of the largest increases in the size of government of any advanced country, in large part due to the previous government’s tendency to expand the federal government’s role in the economy (national dental care, pharmacare, daycare, etc.). Unfortunately, the throne speech suggests the Carney government will repeat these mistakes and continue to expand the federal government’s role in the economy.

For example, the government plans to speed up the time it takes to approve major projects within Canada to incentivize new investments and grow the economy. However, instead of eliminating the costly and burdensome regulations that make it hard to build projects in Canada, the Carney government plans to create a new government entity—the Major Federal Project Office—to reduce approval times. In other words, the government will create more bureaucracy and regulation to try and solve a problem created by too much regulation.

Similarly, in its efforts to spur new homebuilding, the Carney government will create another new federal entity called Build Canada Homes, which will “get the government back in the business of building” by acting as a developer to build affordable housing while also providing financing to other affordable homebuilders. However, by increasing the federal government’s role in the economy, and continuing to expand bureaucratic influence, the government is unlikely to “catalyze” significant new homebuilding but it will likely expose taxpayers to significant risks.

Due to the presence of King Charles III, the delivery of this year’s speech from the throne differed significantly from years past. However, in substance, the Carney government promises much of the same.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

Alberta

Provincial pension plan may mean big savings for Albertans

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid a growing separatist movement in Alberta, a recent poll commissioned by the Smith government found that 55 per cent of Albertans would vote to replace the “Canada Pension Plan (CPP) with an Alberta Pension Plan that guaranteed all Alberta seniors the same or better benefits.” That’s a massive surge in support since last year when support for a provincial plan was approximately 22 per cent. And while there are costs and benefits to leaving the CPP, one thing is clear—Albertans could see savings under a provincial pension plan.

First, some context.

From 1981 to 2022 (the latest year of available data) Alberta workers contributed 14.4 per cent (on average) of total CPP payments while retirees in the province received only 10.0 per cent of the payments, due mainly to the province’s relatively high rates of employmenthigher average incomes and younger population (i.e. fewer retirees).

Over that same period, Albertans’ net contribution to the CPP—the amount Albertans paid into the program over and above what retirees in Alberta received in CPP payments—was $53.6 billion. That’s more than six times more than British Columbia, the only other province that paid more into the CPP than retirees in the province received in benefits.

Some analysts argue that the surge in support for a provincial pension plan in Alberta is a result of strategic wording by the Smith government, specifying that seniors would be guaranteed the same or better benefits than under the current CPP.

It’s true, the wording of a poll question can impact the results. But according to the federal legislation that governs the CPP, any province that wishes to withdraw from the CPP in favour of a provincial plan must provide comparable benefits.

And in fact, several analyses show that due to Alberta’s demographic and economic factors, Alberta workers would receive the same retirement benefits under a provincial pension plan but pay lower contribution rates compared to what they currently pay, while contributions rates would have to increase for Canadians outside Alberta (excluding Quebec) to maintain the same benefits under the CPP.

More specifically, according to a report commissioned by the Smith government, Alberta’s contribution rate, which is effectively a tax taken off paycheques, would fall from the base CPP contribution rate (9.9 per cent) to an estimated 5.85 per cent under a provincial pension plan. That would save each Albertan up to $2,850 in 2027 (the first year of the hypothetical Alberta plan). Again, this lower contribution rate (i.e. tax) would deliver the same benefit levels in Alberta as the current CPP.

Even under more conservative assumptions, Albertans would still pay a lower contribution rate while receiving the same benefits. According to economist Trevor Tombe’s estimate, Alberta’s contribution rate would drop to 8.2 per cent and save Albertan workers approximately $836 annually.

Support for a separate provincial pension plan is on the rise. And Albertans should know that under an Alberta plan, due to demographic and economic factors, they could pay a lower contribution rate yet receive the same level of benefits.

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Business

Big grocers rigged bread prices and most walked away free

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This article supplied by Troy Media.

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Canada’s bread price-fixing scandal is one of the most damaging breaches of corporate trust in the history of Canadian food retail. The recent approval
of a $500-million class-action settlement by an Ontario court is a significant—though partial—step toward accountability. But the story isn’t over.

For over a decade, grocery giants secretly rigged the price of the country’s most basic food item, and most Canadians had no idea.

From 2001 to 2015, retailers and suppliers deliberately coordinated to raise the price of packaged bread, a basic household staple. This kind of illegal arrangement, known as price-fixing, occurs when supposed competitors agree to set prices rather than compete, driving up costs for consumers. Companies named in the lawsuit include Loblaw, its parent company George Weston Ltd., Metro, Sobeys, Walmart and Giant Tiger.

The impact on consumers was steep. Estimates suggest Canadians were overcharged by more than $5 billion over 14 years. The added cost was hidden in weekly grocery bills, largely unnoticed, but cumulatively devastating, especially for lower-income households that spend a greater share of their income on food.

The Competition Bureau, Canada’s competition watchdog, launched its investigation in 2015 after Loblaw came forward as a whistleblower under its Immunity and Leniency Program. In exchange for cooperating, Loblaw and George Weston were granted immunity from criminal prosecution. Their disclosure triggered years of scrutiny. In 2017, the companies attempted to contain the public backlash by offering $25 gift cards to 3.8 million Canadians, a gesture that cost $96 million and was widely seen as inadequate.

More recently, in 2023, Canada Bread pleaded guilty and paid a record $50-million fine for its role in the scheme. Although the violations occurred while it was owned by Maple Leaf Foods, it was Grupo Bimbo—which acquired Canada Bread in 2014—that took responsibility and cooperated with regulators. It was a rare show of accountability in a case otherwise marked by corporate silence.

Despite multiple companies being implicated, only Loblaw, George Weston and Canada Bread have admitted wrongdoing. No fines or sanctions have been imposed on the others. Walmart, Metro, Sobeys and Giant Tiger—all named by Loblaw—deny the allegations. Yet the investigation drags on nearly a decade later.

This imbalance in accountability has deepened public frustration. Many Canadians believe only those who stepped forward have faced consequences,
while others remain untouched. Or perhaps Loblaw threw its competitors under the bus in a calculated effort to save its own reputation?

The $500-million settlement—$404 million of it from Loblaw and George Weston —was approved by an Ontario judge earlier this month as “fair, reasonable, and in the best interests of class members.” The other $96 million reflects the earlier gift card program. What’s left to be paid amounts to about $13 per Canadian adult. After legal fees and administrative costs, 78 per cent of that will go to eligible Canadians outside Quebec, with the remaining 22 per cent reserved for Quebecers, pending a June 16 court hearing.

But for many, the money and the apologies do little to restore trust. If companies can quietly collude on something as essential as bread, it raises questions about what else might be going unnoticed in our grocery bills. The scandal exposed major weaknesses in Canada’s food retail system: toothless competition laws, limited pricing transparency and weak deterrents against collusion. These investigations take too long, and the damage to public confidence lingers long after the cheques are cashed.

Bread is not just a commodity. It symbolizes nourishment, affordability and stability. Manipulating its price isn’t just a legal violation; it’s a betrayal of public trust.

If this case is to be a turning point, it must lead to more than payouts. Canada needs stronger enforcement, faster investigations and real transparency in pricing. Without systemic reform, Canadians will remain vulnerable to the next coordinated “market adjustment,” hiding in plain sight on store shelves.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country

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