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Fraser Institute

Canada’s median health-care wait time hits 30 weeks—longest ever recorded

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From the Fraser Institute

By Mackenzie Moir and Bacchus Barua

Canadian patients in 2024 waited longer than ever for medical treatment, finds a new study released today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“While most Canadians understand that wait times are a major problem, we’ve now reached an unprecedented and unfortunate milestone for delayed access to care,” said Bacchus Barua, director of health policy studies at the Fraser Institute and co-author of Waiting Your Turn: Wait Times for Health Care in Canada, 2024.

The annual study, based on a survey of physicians across Canada, this year reports a median wait time of 30 weeks from referral by a general practitioner (i.e. family doctor) to consultation with a specialist to treatment, for procedures across 12 medical specialties including several types of surgery.

This year’s median wait (30 weeks) is the longest ever recorded—longer than the 27.7 weeks in 2023 and the 20.9 weeks in 2019 (before the pandemic), and 222 per cent longer than the 9.3 weeks in 1993 when the Fraser Institute began tracking wait times. Among the provinces, Ontario recorded the shortest median wait time (23.6 weeks, up from 21.6 weeks in 2023) while Prince Edward Island recorded the longest (77.4 weeks—although data for P.E.I. should be interpreted with caution due to fewer survey responses compared to other provinces).

Among the various specialties, national median wait times were longest for orthopedic surgery (57.5 weeks) and neurosurgery (46.2 weeks), and shortest for radiation (4.5 weeks) and medical oncology treatments (4.7 weeks). For diagnostic technologies, wait times were longest for CT scans (8.1 weeks), MRIs (16.2 weeks) and ultrasounds (5.2 weeks).

“Long wait times can result in increased suffering for patients, lost productivity at work, a decreased quality of life, and in the worst cases, disability or death,” said Mackenzie Moir, senior policy analyst at the Fraser Institute and study co-author.

Median wait times by province (in weeks)

  • In 2024, physicians across Canada reported a median wait time of 30.0 weeks between a referral from a GP and receipt of treatment. Up from 27.7 in 2023.
  • This is 222% longer than the 9.3 week wait Canadian patients could expect in 1993.
  • Ontario reported the shortest total wait (23.6 weeks), followed by Quebec (28.9 weeks) and British Columbia (29.5 weeks).
  • Patients waited longest in Prince Edward Island (77.4 weeks), New Brunswick (69.4 weeks) and Newfoundland and Labrador (43.2 weeks).
  • Patients waited the longest for Orthopaedic Surgery (57.5 weeks) and Neurosurgery (46.2 weeks).
  • By contrast, patients faced shorter waits for Radiation Oncology (4.5 weeks) and Medical Oncology (4.7 weeks).
  • The national 30 week total wait is comprised of two segments. Referral by a GP to consultation with a specialist: 15.0 weeks. Consultation with a specialist to receipt of treatment: 15.0 weeks.
  • More than 1900 responses were received across 12 specialties and 10 provinces.
  • After seeing a specialist, Canadian patients waited 6.3 weeks longer than what physicians consider to be clinically reasonable (8.6 weeks).
  • Across 10 provinces, the study estimated that patients in Canada were waiting for 1.5 million procedures in 2024.
  • Patients also suffered considerable delays for diagnostic technology: 8.1 weeks for CT scans, 16.2 weeks for MRI scans, and 5.2 weeks for Ultrasound.

 

Mackenzie Moir

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

Bacchus Barua

Director, Health Policy Studies, Fraser Institute

Alberta

New pipeline from Alberta would benefit all Canadians—despite claims from B.C. premier

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From the Fraser Institute

By Kenneth P. Green

The pending Memorandum of Understanding between the Carney government and the Alberta governments will reportedly support a new oil pipeline from Alberta’s oilsands to British Columbia’s tidewater. But B.C. Premier David Eby continues his increasingly strident—and factually challenged—opposition to the whole idea.

Eby’s arguments against a new pipeline are simply illogical and technically incorrect.

First, he argues that any pipeline would pose unmitigated risks to B.C.’s coastal environment, but this is wrong for several reasons. The history of oil transport off of Canada’s coasts is one of incredible safety, whether of Canadian or foreign origin, long predating federal Bill C-48’s tanker ban. New pipelines and additional transport of oil from (and along) B.C. coastal waters is likely very low environmental risk. In the meantime, a regular stream of oil tankers and large fuel-capacity ships have been cruising up and down the B.C. coast between Alaska and U.S. west coast ports for decades with great safety records.

Next, Eby argues that B.C.’s First Nations people oppose any such pipeline and will torpedo energy projects in B.C. But in reality, based on the history of the recently completed Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, First Nations opposition is quite contingent. The TMX project had signed 43 mutual benefit/participation agreements with Indigenous groups along its route by 2018, 33 of which were in B.C. As of March 2023, the project had signed agreements with 81 out of 129 Indigenous community groups along the route worth $657 million, and the project had resulted in more than $4.8 billion in contracts with Indigenous businesses.

Back in 2019, another proposed energy project garnered serious interest among First Nations groups. The First Nations-proposed Eagle Spirit Energy Corridor, aimed to connect Alberta’s oilpatch to a port in Kitimat, B.C. (and ultimately overseas markets) had the buy-in of 35 First Nations groups along the proposed corridor, with equity-sharing agreements floated with 400 others. Energy Spirit, unfortunately, died in regulatory strangulation in the Trudeau government’s revised environmental assessment process, and with the passage of the B.C. tanker ban.

Premier Eby is perfectly free to opine and oppose the very thought of oil pipelines crossing B.C. But the Supreme Court of Canada has already ruled in a case about the TMX pipeline that B.C. does not have the authority to block infrastructure of national importance such as pipelines.

And it’s unreasonable and corrosive to public policy in Canada for leading government figures to adopt positions on important elements of public policy that are simply false, in blatant contradiction to recorded history and fact. Fact—if the energy industry is allowed to move oil reserves to markets other than the United States, this would be in the economic interest of all Canadians including those in B.C.

It must be repeated. Premier Eby’s objections to another Alberta pipeline are rooted in fallacy, not fact, and should be discounted by the federal government as it plans an agreement that would enable a project of national importance.

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Business

Taxpayers paying wages and benefits for 30% of all jobs created over the last 10 years

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jason Childs

From 2015 to 2024, the government sector in Canada—including federal, provincial and municipal—added 950,000 jobs, which accounted for roughly 30 per cent of total employment growth in the country, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“In Canada, employment in the government sector has skyrocketed over the last 10 years,” said Jason Childs, a professor of economics at the University of Regina, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Examining the Growth of Public-Sector Employment Since 2015.

Over the same 10-year period (2015-2024), government-sector employment grew at an annual average rate of 2.7 per cent compared to only 1.7 per cent for the private sector. The study also examines employment growth by province. Government employment (federal, provincial, municipal) grew at a higher annual rate than the private sector in every province except Manitoba over the 10-year period.

The largest gaps between government-sector employment growth compared to the private sector were in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Quebec and British Columbia. The smallest gaps were in Alberta and Prince Edward Island.
“The larger government’s share of employment, the greater the ultimate burden on taxpayers to support government workers—government does not pay for itself,” Childs said.

A related study (Measuring the Cost to Canadians from the Growth in Public Administration, also authored by Childs) finds that, from 2015 to 2024, across all levels of government in Canada, the number of public administrators (many of who
work in government ministries, agencies and other offices that do not directly provide services to the public) grew by more than 328,000—or 3.5 per cent annually (on average).

“If governments want to reduce costs, they should look closely at the size of their public administration,” Childs said.

Examining the Growth of Public Sector Employment Since 2015

  • The public sector in Canada added 950,000 jobs between 2015 and 2024. This accounted for roughly 30% of all employment gains.
  • Public sector employment as a share of total employment has grown from 19.7% in 2015 to 21.5% in 2024. Moreover, public sector employment grew at an annual average rate of 2.7% per year, while private sector employment grew at 1.7% per year.
  • In all provinces except Manitoba, public sector employment growth outpaced private sector employment growth, exerting increased pressure on government finances.
  • There is significant variation among provinces in the scale of public sector employment. In Atlantic Canada, public sector employment now represents nearly 30% of all employment. In Alberta, the public sector accounted for 18.0% of all employment in 2024.
  • Public administration has grown even faster than overall public sector employment since 2015. There were 328,200 more public administrators in 2024 than there were in 2015. This accounts for almost one-third of the growth in Canadian public sector employment, and for 10% of all net new employment.
  • In 2015, public administration accounted for 5.4% of all employment. That rose to 6% by 2024.
  • The trend toward sustained strong public sector employment growth is worrisome given Canada’s weak productivity and persistent deficits by both provinces and the federal government. The size of the broad public sector workforce will have to shrink, both absolutely and relative to overall Canadian employment.

Jason Childs

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