This article supplied by Troy Media.

 By Doug Firby

Canada is risking its most successful export to prop up an EV pipe dream

Picture a Canadian industry that contributes $43 billion to the economy and employs about 200,000 people.

There aren’t many of those in this country. Any industry of that size should be considered indispensable.

And yet, while there is (understandable) national hand-wringing over the future of Canada’s auto industry—especially in light of U.S. President Donald
Trump’s renewed tariff rampage—another industry, arguably more economically important, is being dangerously overlooked.

That industry is canola.

A summer drive through Manitoba, Saskatchewan or Alberta makes the scale hard to miss. Yellow fields stretch to every horizon. Canola production has exploded over the past decade and has become the very lifeblood of the Prairies.

Without it, large parts of those provinces would be economically barren and far more sparsely populated. We’re not talking about niche agriculture here—we’re talking about a foundational industry that keeps the lights on across three provinces.

Canada is the world’s largest exporter of canola, a crop used to produce cooking oil, animal feed and biofuels. Its export-driven success makes it a cornerstone of the Prairie economy.

Now consider this: Canada’s auto manufacturing industry contributes about $19 billion annually to GDP and employs around 125,000 people directly in assembly and parts manufacturing. Include distribution and aftermarket services, and you get a bigger figure, but the core numbers still pale in comparison to canola.

So, here’s the uncomfortable question: If you had to sacrifice one, which would it be?

It’s a Hobson’s choice. Nobody wants to lose either. But Canada has been pushed into a position where something has to give.

The Trudeau government—and before that, the Biden administration—imposed 100 per cent tariffs on made-in-China electric vehicles (EVs). The logic was straightforward: protect the billions being pumped into Canada’s auto sector and turn the country into a hub for EV innovation and production.

It was a defensive move: one meant to slow China’s dominance in the global EV market and give domestic manufacturers room to grow. Without it, cheap, wellbuilt Chinese EVs would undercut Canadian and North American models before they ever left the factory floor.

But China doesn’t take these things lightly. In retaliation, it slapped a 76 per cent tariff on Canadian canola. Prairie farmers, many of whom are already grappling with rising costs and unpredictable weather, are now wondering if their main market is disappearing overnight.

China has long been Canada’s largest canola customer, though the relationship has had flare-ups, including temporary bans in past years tied to diplomatic disputes.

More than two-thirds of Canada’s exported canola goes to China. The latest tariff hike has already wiped out an estimated $1 billion in value. And there’s no clear end in sight.

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew was blunt last week: Canada cannot afford to be in a trade war with both the United States and China. He suggested that, in the short term, Ottawa should direct EV tariff revenues to support canola producers. That may buy us some time. But the broader strategic question looms larger: With the U.S. under Trump becoming an increasingly unstable trade partner, and China punishing us for playing by American rules, where does Canada place its long-term bet?

It’s not an easy question to answer.

China is hardly an ideal partner. Its human rights record is abysmal, and its growing economic power often comes with strings attached. But we also can’t deny that it has already become the global manufacturing centre in many key sectors—including electric vehicles.

Then there’s the U.S. A longtime ally, yes, but under Trump, all bets are off. In January, he said of Canada, “We don’t need anything they have.” Not cars. Not oil. Not even niceties.

CUSMA—the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement that replaced NAFTA—governs most of Canada’s trade with our two largest partners. If Trump reopens the deal—and with Trump, it’s usually safest to take him literally—the Canadian auto industry may not survive. Billions in subsidies and protective tariffs won’t matter if the largest market slams its door shut.

So, again: what should we protect?

New markets for canola are being pursued—in Europe, Japan and elsewhere. But they won’t match China’s scale anytime soon. Diversifying export markets takes years. Prairie farmers don’t have that kind of time.

Meanwhile, dreams of building a Canadian-made EV remain just that: dreams. The auto sector may eventually pivot and survive, but right now, it’s the one on life support. Canola is the industry that’s vibrant—unless we let it get crushed in a trade crossfire.

I lived in an auto town for over two decades. I know the stakes. I’ve seen what happens when plants close, when supply chains dry up, and when livelihoods vanish.

But we need to be realistic.

Canola is a winning industry. It feeds the economy, supports thousands of families and helps keep our rural communities alive. It doesn’t need endless
subsidies or federal cheerleading—it just needs stable access to markets.

That might mean giving ground on EV tariffs. That might mean swallowing some pride on the international stage. But Canada cannot afford to sacrifice a thriving sector to save one already on the brink.

If we’re going to make hard choices—and we will—let’s make the one that protects what still works.

Canada cannot lose canola.

Doug Firby is an award-winning editorial writer with over four decades of experience working for newspapers, magazines and online publications in Ontario and western Canada. Previously, he served as Editorial Page Editor at the Calgary Herald.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country

The slowing adoption of electric vehicles is a clear signal that the federal government should abandon its gradual ban on gas-powered vehicles, says the MEI.

“Consumer choices belong to consumers, not the government,” says Gabriel Giguère, senior policy analyst at the MEI. “With consumers’ appetite for electric vehicles waning, not only is the federal government’s mandate unrealistic, but it is also coercive.”

Data released this morning show that electric vehicle purchases are down 36.8 per cent year over year (Q2 to Q2).

In June, only 7.9 per cent of vehicle sales in Canada were zero emission, down from 13.0 per cent in June of 2024, according to Statistics Canada.

In 2023, the federal government introduced targets for gradually eliminating the sale of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035.

To meet the government’s targets, 20 per cent of new vehicle sales would need to be electric or plug-in hybrid in 2026, representing a 12-point jump from current levels and a reversal of the current trend.

“At this rate, the target will simply not be met, since Canadians’ current purchasing habits reveal a preference for other types of vehicles,” notes Mr. Giguère.

Seven in 10 Canadians (68 per cent) consider the prohibition of gas-powered vehicle sales by 2035 to be “unrealistic,” according to a Leger poll conducted earlier this month.

Asked whether they believe the EV mandate should be maintained or scrapped, 71 per cent of Canadians say it should be rescinded due to “high costs and implementation concerns.”

These concerns align with findings from an MEI Viewpoint published in February, which highlighted significant worries over the availability of charging infrastructure, the pressure on provincial electrical grids, and the high cost of purchasing new electric vehicles. Together, these concerns justify the abandonment of the federal prohibition.

“Canadians should have the freedom to purchase the vehicles that suit their needs,” says Mr. Giguère. “The adoption of new technology should be driven by innovation, not by government decree.”

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The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.