Business
Bank of Canada Flags Challenges Amid Absence of Federal Budget
Dan Knight
Governor Tiff Macklem signals the central bank is flying blind as Mark Carney’s Liberal government withholds fiscal plans, leaving Canadians to face rising prices and economic uncertainty.
The Bank of Canada—yes, the people in charge of stabilizing your currency, protecting your savings, and guiding the economy through the storm—held a press conference. The takeaway? They have no idea what’s going on.
If you missed it, Governor Tiff Macklem stood at the podium and told Canadians, with a straight face, that the Bank is keeping interest rates unchanged at 2.75%. Now, if you’re expecting that decision to come with some clarity, a plan, maybe even a roadmap for the months ahead—don’t hold your breath.
Why? Because Macklem said the Bank’s navigating ‘unusual uncertainty’ from U.S. trade moves, and they’re too unsure to pin down a forecast. Instead, they’re waiting for more numbers to make sense of the mess.
Just pause and think about that for a second. The central bank of one of the wealthiest nations on Earth—tasked with steering the economy—is flying blind.
But don’t worry, we were told. A rate cut might come in July. Maybe. Depending on how inflation behaves. Depending on how the economy holds up. Depending on a whole list of things no one can actually predict right now. Macklem says it depends on inflation being “contained.” But look around—consumer spending is falling, housing is slowing down, and people are losing jobs in sectors tied to trade. And he knows it.
He said, “The second quarter is expected to be much weaker.” Why? Because the growth we saw earlier this year was a mirage. Canadian companies rushed to export goods before U.S. tariffs hit. That inflated Q1 GDP to 2.2%. Now the adrenaline is gone and reality is setting in.
He didn’t say we’re in trouble. But he didn’t need to. When your central banker says growth was “pulled forward” and Q2 will be “much weaker,” he’s telling you the economy is already running on fumes.
And then there’s inflation. Now, according to the headlines, inflation dropped to 1.7% in April. Sounds good, right? Until you look at why. The reason inflation dropped is because the federal government eliminated the carbon tax, which temporarily lowered gas prices. That policy change alone knocked 0.6 percentage points off inflation. Not because goods got cheaper—because the tax man backed off for once.
Meanwhile, core inflation—the kind that actually matters—went up. Higher food prices, rising goods prices, supply chain costs—it’s all hitting Canadian businesses and families right now. Macklem even said it himself: “Underlying inflation could be firmer than we thought.”
So what does the Bank do when prices are rising for the wrong reasons and growth is falling for the right ones? Apparently, they wait. They gather “intel” from business owners and talk about “soft data.” That’s the technical term now: soft data.
But the real kicker—what’s actually driving a lot of this chaos—is U.S. trade policy. Tariffs are back. Yes, tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum were doubled again. And Macklem admitted that unpredictability is the biggest threat we’re facing. He said: “The trade conflict initiated by the United States remains the biggest headwind facing the Canadian economy.”
And what has Canada done to protect itself from that risk? Absolutely nothing.
In fact, Macklem came right out and admitted it. He said Canada’s overdependence on U.S. trade has been obvious for years. Here’s the quote:
“Canada’s trade is very concentrated with the United States. Look, it’s always going to be concentrated with the United States… but that doesn’t mean we can’t diversify our trade.”
So the solution has been obvious for decades. Diversify our exports. Strengthen our own internal market. Get serious about reducing interprovincial trade barriers—yes, those still exist in this country. But none of it happened. None of it. Not under Trudeau. Not under Chrystia Freeland. And certainly not under the new “caretaker” prime minister, Mark Carney—Trudeau’s old global finance buddy.
The Deafening Silence from Ottawa: No Budget, No Plan, No Leadership
Now, let’s talk about what Tiff Macklem didn’t say—but might as well have.
At a time when Canadians are facing real economic stress—on housing, food, jobs, and savings—the Liberal government under Mark Carney has failed to table a federal budget. Let that sink in. We’re halfway through 2025, inflation is shifting, trade policy is in turmoil, and the federal government has not provided a single fiscal blueprint.
This isn’t just a minor oversight. In a presser filled with caution, hedging, and uncertainty, Macklem was asked point-blank how the lack of a spring budget is affecting the Bank’s ability to do its job. His answer? Chilling in its understatement:
“Whatever announcements come out of the government that are… concrete, clear plans with numbers on them—we will take those on board.”
But here’s the thing: there are no numbers. There are no “concrete” plans. There is no spring budget. Which means the Bank of Canada is operating without a fiscal anchor.
And that’s not a partisan jab. That’s a direct acknowledgment from the central bank governor. Monetary policy doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It relies on fiscal policy—how much Ottawa plans to spend, what kind of debt it’s taking on, whether it’s injecting or withdrawing demand from the economy. Without that information, the Bank is effectively being asked to navigate blindfolded.
Macklem was careful, as central bankers always are, but he sent a signal to anyone paying attention: the absence of fiscal clarity is a problem. In his words, it “complicates monetary policy planning.” That’s about as blunt as a central banker gets.
Yet in a moment of unintended honesty, he added this:
“To be frank, the budget is not the biggest source of uncertainty… It’s U.S. tariffs.”
Well, sure. America’s economic unpredictability is real. But what Macklem didn’t say—but we all know—is this: Canada’s lack of internal leadership is a close second. And that’s the part Ottawa doesn’t want to talk about.
And here’s the part that’s impossible to ignore, even if every outlet in this country refuses to say it: Mark Carney knows better.
He used to run central banks. That’s his entire résumé. He understands, better than anyone, that monetary policy doesn’t function in a fiscal vacuum. He knows the Bank of Canada requires a federal budget to plan ahead. He knows you can’t forecast inflation or economic activity if the federal government won’t even tell you how much it plans to spend, borrow, or tax. That’s not some fringe economic theory, that’s Monetary Policy 101.
And yet, despite knowing all of this, Carney is choosing not to deliver a budget. He’s actively keeping the Bank of Canada in the dark. Why?
Well, maybe it’s because he doesn’t want to show you the numbers. Because the numbers are bad. Because the spending is out of control. Because the debt is spiraling. Because if he puts it all on paper, if he gives us the hard data, then suddenly, the opposition can do what it’s supposed to do: hold his government to account.
And maybe, just maybe, Carney doesn’t want that. Not yet. Not so early in his reign as Trudeau’s heir. He doesn’t want the Conservative Party pulling apart his economic plan, and he certainly doesn’t want the Canadian people realizing that we are not collecting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, even as the Americans hammer us again with steel and aluminum levies.
He doesn’t want you to see the imbalance. Because if you did, if the average Canadian saw how weak and passive this country has become in the face of American economic aggression, you’d be furious. You’d demand answers. You’d demand change.
But instead, its all, “elbows down.” Quietly filtered out of the official narrative. No plan, no numbers, no debate—just vague promises, half-hearted reassurances, and a press conference where your central banker admits he’s guessing.
And you, the ordinary Canadian, are stuck with the consequences. You feel it every time you go to the grocery store. Food prices are still climbing. The latest inflation data shows that even as headline numbers tick down, your groceries are getting more expensive. Your paycheque isn’t going as far. And nobody in power seems to care enough to fix it.
So here’s the truth: the system is rigged. Not in some conspiratorial way, but in the most obvious, bureaucratic, cowardly way imaginable. Those in charge know the damage they’re causing. They just don’t want to be blamed for it.
And as always, it’s the people who work, save, and pay taxes—the people who still believe in this country—who get left holding the bag.
So the next time they tell you “everything is under control,” ask yourself: whose hands are on the wheel?
Because right now, it sure doesn’t look like anyone is driving.
Good-day, Canada.
Business
Large-scale energy investments remain a pipe dream
I view the recent announcements by the Government of Canada as window dressing, and not addressing the fundamental issue which is that projects are drowning in bureaucratic red tape and regulatory overburden. We don’t need them picking winners and losers, a fool’s errand in my opinion, but rather make it easier to do business within Canada and stop the hemorrhaging of Foreign Direct Investment from this country.
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Changes are afoot—reportedly, carve-outs and tweaks to federal regulations that would help attract investment in a new oil pipeline from Alberta. But any private proponent to come out of this deal will presumably be handpicked to advance through the narrow Bill C-5 window, aided by one-off fixes and exemptions.
That approach can only move us so far. It doesn’t address the underlying problem.
Anyone in the investment world will tell you a patchwork of adjustments is nowhere near enough to unlock the large-scale energy investment this country needs. And from that investor’s perspective, the horizon stretches far beyond a single political cycle. Even if this government promises clarity today in the much-anticipated memorandum of understanding (MOU), who knows whether it will be around by the time any major proposal actually moves forward.
With all of the talk of “nation-building” projects, I have often been asked what my thoughts are about what we must see from the federal government.
The energy sector is the file the feds have to get right. It is by far the largest component of Canadian exports, with oil accounting for $147 billion in 2024 (20 percent of all exports), and energy as a whole accounting for $227 billion of exports (30 percent of all exports).
Furthermore, we are home to some of the largest resource reserves in the world, including oil (third-largest in proven reserves) and natural gas (ninth-largest). Canada needs to wholeheartedly embrace that. Natural resource exceptionalism is exactly what Canada is, and we should be proud of it.
One of the most important factors that drives investment is commodity prices. But that is set by market forces.
Beyond that, I have always said that the two most important things one considers before looking at a project are the rule of law and regulatory certainty.
The Liberal government has been obtuse when it comes to whether it will continue the West Coast tanker ban (Bill C-48) or lift it to make way for a pipeline. But nobody will propose a pipeline without the regulatory and legal certainty that they will not be seriously hindered should they propose to build one.
Meanwhile, the proposed emissions cap is something that sets an incredibly negative tone, a sentiment that is the most influential factor in ensuring funds flow. Finally, the Impact Assessment Act, often referred to as the “no more pipelines bill” (Bill C-69), has started to blur the lines between provincial and federal authority.
All three are supposedly on the table for tweaks or carve-outs. But that may not be enough.
It is interesting that Norway—a country that built its wealth on oil and natural gas—has adopted the mantra that as long as oil is a part of the global economy, it will be the last producer standing. It does so while marrying conventional energy with lower-carbon standards. We should be more like Norway.
Rather than constantly speaking down to the sector, the Canadian government should embrace the wealth that this represents and adopt a similar narrative.
The sector isn’t looking for handouts. Rather, it is looking for certainty, and a government proud of the work that they do and is willing to say so to Canada and the rest of the world. Foreign direct investment outflows have been a huge issue for Canada, and one of the bigger drags on our economy.
Almost all of the major project announcements Prime Minister Mark Carney has made to date have been about existing projects, often decades in the making, which are not really “additive” to the economy and are reflective of the regulatory overburden that industry faces en masse.
I have always said governments are about setting the rules of the game, while it is up to businesses to decide whether they wish to participate or to pick up the ball and look elsewhere.
Capital is mobile and will pursue the best risk-adjusted returns it can find. But the flow of capital from our country proves that Canada is viewed as just too risky for investors.
The government’s job is not to try to pick winners and losers. History has shown that governments are horrible at that. Rather, it should create a risk-appropriate environment with stable and capital-attractive rules in place, and then get out of the way and see where the chips fall.
Link to The Hub article: Large-scale energy investments remain a pipe dream
Formerly the head of institutional equity research at FirstEnergy Capital Corp and ATB Capital Markets. I have been involved in the energy sector in either the sell side or corporately for over 25 years
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Business
I Was Hired To Root Out Bias At NIH. The Nation’s Health Research Agency Is Still Sick

From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By Joe Duarte
Federal agencies like the National Institutes of Health (NIH) continue to fund invalid, ideologically driven “scientific” research that subsidizes leftist activists and harms conservatives and the American people at large. There’s currently no plan to stop.
Conversely, NIH does not fund obvious research topics that would help the American people, because of institutional leftist bias.
While serving as a senior advisor at NIH, I discovered many active grants like these:
“Examining Anti-Racist Healing in Nature to Protect Telomeres of Transitional Age BIPOC for Health Equity” — Take minority teens to parks in a bid to reduce telomere erosion (the shortening of repetitive DNA sequences as we age). $3.8 million in five years and no results published – not surprising, given their absurd premise.
“Ecological Momentary Assessment of Racial/Ethnic Microaggressions and Cannabis Use among Black Adults” – This rests on an invalid leftist ideological concept – “microaggressions.” An example of a “microaggression” is a white person denying he’s racist. They can’t be validly measured since they’re simply defined into existence by Orwellian leftist ideology, with no attempt to discover the alleged aggressor’s motives.
“Influence of Social Media, Social Networks, and Misinformation on Vaccine Acceptance Among Black and Latinx Individuals” — from an activist who said the phrase “The coronavirus is genetically engineered” was “misinformation” and also conducted a bizarre, partisan study based entirely on a Trump tweet about recovering from COVID.
I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
The study claimed that people saw COVID as less “serious” after the tweet. I apologize for the flashback to when Democrats demanded everyone feel the exact level of COVID panic and anti-optimism they felt (and share their false beliefs on the efficacy of school closures, masks, and vaccines ). NIH funded this study and gave him another $651,586 in July for his new “misinformation” study, including $200,000 from the Office of the Director.
I’m a social psychologist who has focused on the harms of ideological bias in academic research. Our sensemaking institutions have been gashed by a cult political ideology that treats its conjectures and abstractions as descriptively true, without argument or even explanation, and enforces conformity with inhumane psychologizing and ostracism. This ideology – which dominates academia and NIH – poses an unprecedented threat to our connection to reality, and thus to science, by vaporizing the distinction between descriptive reality and ideological tenets.
In March, I emailed Jay Bhattacharya, Director of NIH, and pitched him on how I could build an objective framework to eliminate ideological bias in NIH-funded research.
Jay seemed to agree with my analysis. We spoke on the phone, and I started in May as a senior advisor to Jay in the Office of the Director (NIH-OD).
I never heard from Jay again beyond a couple of cursory replies.
For four months, I read tons of grants, passed a lengthy federal background check, started to build the pieces, and contacted Jay about once a week with questions, follow-up, and example grants. Dead air – he was ghosting me.
Jay also bizarrely deleted the last two months’ worth of my messages to him but kept the older ones. I’d sent him a two-page framework summary, asked if I should keep working on it, and also asked if I’d done something wrong, given his persistent lack of response. No response.
In September, the contractors working at NIH-OD, me included, were laid off. No explanation was given.
I have no idea what happened here. It’s been the strangest and most unprofessional experience of my career.
The result is that NIH is still funding ideological, scientifically invalid research and will continue to ignore major topics because of leftist bias. We have a precious opportunity for lasting reform, and that opportunity will be lost without a systematic approach to eliminating ideology in science.
What’s happened so far is that DOGE cut some grants earlier this year, after a search for DEI terms. It was a good first step but caught some false positives and missed most of the ideological research, including many grants premised on “microaggressions,” “systemic racism,” “intersectionality,” and other proprietary, question-begging leftist terms. Leftist academics are already adapting by changing their terminology – this meme is popular on Bluesky:
DOGE didn’t have the right search terms, and a systematic, objective anti-bias framework is necessary to do the job. It’s also more legally resilient and persuasive to reachable insiders — there’s no way to reform a huge bureaucracy without getting buy-in from some insiders (yes, you also have to fire some people). This mission requires empowered people at every funding agency who are thoroughly familiar with leftist ideology, can cleanly define “ideology,” and build robust frameworks to remove it from scientific research.
My framework identifies four areas of bias so far:
- Ideological research
- Rigged research
- Ideological denial of science / suppression of data
- Missing research – research that would happen if not for leftist bias
The missing research at NIH likely hurts the most — e.g. American men commit suicide at unusually high rates, especially white and American Indian men, yet NIH funds no research on this. But they do fund “Hypertension Self-management in Refugees Living in San Diego.”
Similarly, NIH is AWOL on the health benefits of religious observance and prayer, a promising area of research that Muslim countries are taking the lead on. These two gaping holes suggest that NIH is indifferent to the American people and even culturally and ideologically hostile them.
Joe Duarte grew up in small copper-mining towns in Southern Arizona, earned his PhD in social psychology, and focuses on political bias in media and academic research. You can find his work here, find him on X here, and contact him at gravity at protonmail.com.
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