Agriculture
Average family to pay $400 more for groceries next year, report estimates
The average Canadian family will pay about $400 more for groceries and roughly $150 more for dining out next year, an annual food price report predicts.
Food prices will rise between 1.5 to 3.5 per cent in 2019, according to the report from researchers at the University of Guelph and Dalhousie University. That means the average family of four will spend $12,157 next year — up $411 from 2018.
Vegetables will see the biggest price jumps — between four and six per cent for the category, according to the report.
Meanwhile, meat and seafood prices are expected to fall, with the meat category to decline by one to three per cent and seafood costs to remain the same or fall up to two per cent.
Since 2015, the team has predicted prices in those two categories would rise as high as six per cent each year.
“This is a bit of a risk for us… We’ve never done that,” said Sylvain Charlebois, one of the lead researchers and a professor at Dalhousie University, referring to anticipating a decline.
But the team is confident in its prediction.
They believe there’s an oversupply of meat, he said, and Canadians are eating less animal protein. Instead, they’re showing more interest in alternative proteins, like quinoa and lentils.
The plant-based protein trend is evident in recent manufacturer and restaurant moves as well.
Meat processors Maple Leaf Foods Inc., for example, acquired two companies in this niche in recent years, Lightlife Foods and Field Roast GrainMeat Co.
At the same time, fast food chains have started adding vegan and vegetarian options to their menus. A&W Food Services of Canada Inc. even temporarily sold out of its Beyond Meat patties shortly after adding them to its menu.
Industry watchers have attributed the demand for plant-based protein to millennials, health-conscious baby boomers and concerns around antibiotic use in agriculture.
A turning point for animal protein, though, was 2014 when beef prices started to rise dramatically, said Charlebois.
Between December 2013 and December 2014 the monthly average retail price for one kilogram of ground beef rose more than 26 per cent, according to Statistics Canada data. For comparison, the price advanced about 3.5 per cent from December 2012-13. It reached a record high of $13.23 in October 2015.
“It really spooked consumers,” said Charlebois, adding they started substituting plant-based protein into their diet.
Butchers and grocers will likely take it easy on beef prices next year in an effort to bring people back to the red meat, he said.
Consumers’ embrace of plant proteins will help push vegetable prices higher next year, as will the weather, according to the report.
“Fruit and vegetables are some of the most perishable, fragile food products that are on the grocery shelf,” said Simon Somogyi, a lead researcher on the report and a University of Guelph professor.
They’re particularly influenced by climactic events, like the El Nino expected to occur this winter, he said, which can result in warmer and drier conditions, and create shortages in the supply chain.
As far as which vegetables may see the biggest increases, it’s difficult to know what produce item will become the next cauliflower, Charlebois said. The cruciferous vegetable saw soaring prices per head in 2016.
Charlebois points to lettuce and tomatoes as possible candidates for big price fluctuations. Meanwhile, Somogyi said produce imported into Canada is more susceptible to weather events and the corresponding price changes.
The report predicts more modest increases for bakery (one to three per cent), dairy (zero to two per cent), fruit (one to three per cent) and other food items, such as non-perishables, not covered by the other categories (zero to two per cent).
Restaurant prices will rise between two and four per cent, according to the report, mainly because operators’ labour costs increased as several provinces and territories boosted their mandated minimum hourly wage recently.
The researchers’ predictions for 2018 were fairly accurate. Fruit prices, which they estimated would rise between one to three per cent, stayed stagnant — the only category where they missed the mark.
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Aleksandra Sagan, The Canadian Press
Agriculture
Canada Greenlights Mass Culling of 400 Research Ostriches Despite Full Recovery from Bird Flu Months Ago
Nicolas Hulscher, MPH
Federal court upholds CFIA’s reckless cull order—setting a dangerous precedent for the unscientific mass depopulation of genetically important animals.
In March, I interviewed Katie Pasitney of Universal Ostrich and Connie Shields to discuss the alarming implications of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) order to cull 400 research ostriches at Universal Ostrich Farm in British Columbia over bird flu:
Canada Orders Mass Culling of 400 Research Ostriches Over Bird Flu, Refuses to Test Surviving Birds for Natural Immunity
·The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has ordered the culling of 400 ostriches at Universal Ostrich Farm in British Columbia, citing concerns over H5N1 bird flu. However, this decision is not based on sound science and could have serious consequences for both food security and medical research.
Universal Ostrich Farm is a research facility focused on studying the unique antibody-producing capabilities of ostriches. Their research has demonstrated potential in neutralizing viruses, bacteria, and even COVID-19, making it an important contribution to medical science.
In December 2024, the CFIA claimed that two deceased ostriches—which had been lying outside for over 16 hours—tested positive for H5N1 via PCR testing. Just 41 minutes after receiving these results, the CFIA signed an order to cull the entire flock.
The CFIA initially granted the farm an exemption, recognizing the birds as “genetically important.” Later, without clear justification, they reversed this decision, ordering their destruction.
Despite the importance of this research, the CFIA has refused to conduct further testing on the birds and has banned the farm from conducting its own tests, under threat of heavy fines and possible imprisonment. Why is the Canadian government refusing to study the potential antibodies ostriches have developed against H5N1 bird flu?
On January 31, 2025, a court granted a temporary stay of execution, halting the cull. However, the CFIA is appealing this decision, which means the culling could still proceed.
Today, we have received news that the reckless mass cull order will proceed despite their ostriches having already recovered months ago and developed natural immunity against H5N1:
Official Announcement: Federal Court Decision in Universal Ostrich Farms Inc. v. Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Dear friends and supporters,
We are absolutely devastated to share today’s Federal Court decision, issued on May 13, 2025. The court ruled in favour of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), upholding their order to destroy our beloved ostriches and rejecting our plea to save them.
The court’s decision accepted the CFIA’s justification under the Health of Animals Act and their use of the Stamping-Out Policy, which mandates the destruction of animals to control disease outbreaks, regardless of their health status. The court confirmed the CFIA’s approach, prioritizing trade obligations over the welfare of our animals.
In addition, we’ve been ordered to pay $15,000 in CFIA’s legal costs. You can read the full decision here: (2025 FC 878). https://saveourostriches.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/JR-T-294-25-and-T-432-25-Final.pdf
We are heartbroken by this outcome and uncertain about the future of our farm. As we navigate this incredibly difficult time, we ask for your patience and continued support. If you are able, please consider making a donation to help us manage the financial and emotional toll this has taken.
Thank you,
Universal Ostrich Farm
http://SaveOurOstriches.com
This deeply misguided decision sets a dangerous precedent for the Canadian government to recklessly depopulate animals at will.
By upholding the CFIA’s reckless cull order, despite the ostriches’ recovery and natural immunity, the court has prioritized trade protocols over scientific inquiry, animal welfare, and the advancement of life-saving medical research.
Epidemiologist and Foundation Administrator, McCullough Foundation
www.mcculloughfnd.org
Please consider following both the McCullough Foundation and my personal account on X (formerly Twitter) for further content.
This article supplied by Troy Media.
By Sylvain Charlebois
With world demand soaring, Canada’s dairy system keeps milk producers locked out of growth, and consumers stuck with high prices
Prime Minister Mark Carney is no Justin Trudeau. While the team around him may be familiar, the tone has clearly shifted. His first week in office signalled a more data-driven, technocratic approach, grounded in pragmatism rather than ideology. That’s welcome news, especially for Canada’s agri-food sector, which has long been overlooked.
Historically, the Liberal party has governed with an urban-centric lens, often sidelining agriculture. That must change. Carney’s pledge to eliminate all interprovincial trade barriers by July 1 was encouraging but whether this includes long-standing obstacles in the agri-food sector remains to be seen. Supply-managed sectors, particularly dairy, remain heavily protected by a tangle of provincially administered quotas (part of Canada’s supply management system, which controls prices and limits production through quotas and tariffs to protect domestic producers). These measures stifle innovation, limit flexibility and distort national productivity.
Consider dairy. Quebec produces nearly 40 per cent of Canada’s milk, despite accounting for just over 20 per cent of the population. This regional imbalance undermines one of supply management’s original promises: preserving dairy farms across the country. Yet protectionism hasn’t preserved diversity—it has accelerated consolidation.
In reality, the number of dairy farms continues to decline, with roughly 90 per cent now concentrated in just a few provinces. On our current path, Canada is projected to lose nearly half of its remaining dairy farms by 2030. Consolidation disproportionately benefits Quebec and Ontario at the expense of smaller producers in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada.
Carney must put dairy reform back on the table, regardless of campaign promises. The sector represents just one per cent of Canada’s GDP, yet
wields outsized influence on policy, benefiting fewer than 9,000 farms out of more than 175,000 nationwide. This is not sustainable. Many Canadian producers are eager to grow, trade and compete globally but are held back by a system designed to insulate rather than enable.
It’s also time to decouple dairy from poultry and eggs. Though also supply managed, those sectors operate with far more vertical integration and
competitiveness. Industrial milk prices in Canada are nearly double those in the United States, undermining both our domestic processors and consumer affordability. These high prices don’t just affect farmers—they directly impact Canadian consumers, who pay more for milk, cheese and other dairy products than many of their international counterparts.
The upcoming renegotiation of CUSMA—the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, which replaced NAFTA—is a chance to reset. Rather than resist change, the dairy sector should seize the opportunity to modernize. This includes exploring a more open quota system for export markets. Reforms could also involve a complete overhaul of the Canadian Dairy Commission to increase transparency around pricing. Canadians deserve to know how much milk is wasted each year—estimated at up to a billion litres—and whether a strategic reserve for powdered milk, much like our existing butter reserve, would better serve national food security.
Global milk demand is rising. According to The Dairy News, the world could face a shortage of 30 million tonnes by 2030, three times Canada’s current annual production. Yet under current policy, Canada is not positioned to contribute meaningfully to meeting that demand. The domestic focus on protecting margins and internal price fairness is blinding the sector to broader market realities.
We’ve been here before. The last time CUSMA was renegotiated, Canada offered modest concessions to foreign competitors and then overcompensated its dairy sector for hypothetical losses. This created an overcapitalized industry, inflated farmland prices and diverted attention from more pressing trade and diplomacy challenges, particularly with India and China. This time must be different: structural reform—not compensation—should be the goal.
If Carney is serious about rebooting the Canadian economy, agri-food must be part of the conversation. But that also means the agriculture sector must engage. Industry voices across the country need to call on dairy to evolve, embrace change and step into the 21st century.
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain.
Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.
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