Alberta
Alberta’s projected surplus balloons: Mid-year budget update
Mid-year update: Keeping Alberta’s finances on track
Alberta’s government continues to manage the province’s finances responsibly with the future in mind.
Alberta continues to lead the nation in economic growth and is forecasting a surplus of $5.5 billion in 2023-24, an increase of $3.2 billion from Budget 2023. The province’s fiscal outlook continued to improve in the second quarter of 2023-24, boosted by strong bitumen royalties and higher income tax revenues.
However, volatile oil prices, continued inflation challenges and uncertainty due to slowing global growth could still affect the province’s finances going forward. Debt servicing costs will be higher than previous years due to higher interest rates, reinforcing the importance of the government’s commitment to balance the budget.
“Alberta continues to stand out as a leader when it comes to fiscal stability and economic resilience in the midst of so much global uncertainty. Our second-quarter fiscal update is another positive report, showing strength in Alberta’s finances and economy and positioning us for future growth and prosperity.”
The government continues to spend responsibly, maintaining its commitment to keep funds in the province’s contingency for disasters and emergencies. The government’s new fiscal framework requires the government to use at least half of available surplus cash to pay down debt, freeing up money that can support the needs of Albertans for generations. The government continues to reduce the province’s debt burden and will pay down a forecasted $3.2 billion in debt this fiscal year.
Alberta’s government is turning its focus to developing next year’s budget, so it supports Albertans’ needs and the province’s economic growth while maintaining the government’s commitment to responsible spending within the fiscal framework. Budget 2024 consultations are open and Albertans are encouraged to share their feedback to help set the province’s financial priorities.
Revenue
- Revenue for 2023-24 is forecast at $74.3 billion, a $3.7-billion increase from Budget 2023. The increase is due to increases across different revenue streams. In addition, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is forecast to average US$79 per barrel over the course of the fiscal year, in line with the Budget 2023 forecast.
- Personal and corporate income tax revenue is forecast at $21.8 billion, $1.8 billion higher than at budget.
- Bitumen royalties are forecast at $14.4 billion, an increase of $1.8 billion from budget.
- Overall resource revenue is forecast at $19.7 billion, $1.3 billion higher than the budget forecast.
- Beginning in 2024, Alberta’s government will continue to offer fuel tax relief when oil prices are high, even as the province transitions back to the original fuel tax relief program, which is based on average quarterly oil prices.
- Albertans will save some or all of the provincial fuel tax on gasoline and diesel when oil prices are $80 per barrel or higher during each quarter’s review period.
- Although oil prices have been below $80 in recent weeks, Albertans will continue to save at least four cents per litre on the provincial fuel tax in the first three months of 2024 as the tax is phased back in.
- The government’s fuel tax relief efforts, which include the pause to the end of 2023 and additional savings over the first three months of 2024, are forecast to reduce other tax revenue by $524 million in 2023-24.
Expense
- Expense for 2023-24 is forecast at $68.8 billion, a $481-million increase from Budget 2023.
- Capital grants are up marginally from Budget 2023, but down from the first-quarter forecast, mainly due to funding schedules for Calgary and Edmonton LRT projects.
- Debt servicing costs are forecast to increase $309 million from budget, a reflection of ongoing high interest rates and inflation.
- Total expense has increased by $1.9 billion, $0.5 billion is directly offset by revenue and $1.4 billion is absorbed by the $1.5-billion contingency.
- In total, $123 million of the 2023-24 contingency remains unallocated.
- $1.2 billion in disaster and emergency costs are forecast for the current fiscal year.
- $750 million for fighting wildfires in the province
- $165 million for AgriRecovery to support livestock producers affected by dry conditions
- $253 million to provide financial assistance to communities for uninsurable damage from spring wildfires and summer flooding
- $61 million for evacuation and other support
- The operating expense forecast has increased by $319 million, including an additional:
- $301 million for Health
- $48 million for Advanced Education
- $48 million for Energy and Minerals
- $33 million for Mental Health and Addiction
- $30 million for Education
- $14 million for Indigenous Relations
- Offset by decreases of $187 million for lower-than-expected program take-up of affordability payments and re-profiling of TIER spending to 2024-25.
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund
- The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund’s market value on Sept. 30, 2023, was $21.4 billion, up from the $21.2 billion reported at March 31, 2023.
- The Heritage Fund returned 0.9 per cent over the first six months of 2023-24.
- Over the five-year period ending on Sept. 30, 2023, the Heritage Fund returned 5.9 per cent, which is 0.5 per cent above the return of its passive benchmark. While the Heritage Fund is outperforming its benchmark return, it is below the long-term real return target of 6.9 per cent, again a result of interest pressures.
- The Heritage Fund generated net investment income of $1 billion in the first half of the fiscal year.
Economic outlook
- Alberta’s economy continues to be resilient, with continued growth projected over the three-year forecast.
- Alberta’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 2.8 per cent in 2023, in line with the Budget 2023 forecast.
- Despite interest rate increases, high prices and slower global economic growth, Alberta’s economy is forecast to keep expanding. The pace of growth, however, will be slower compared with the last two years when the province was recovering from the pandemic.
Alberta Fund
- The amount of surplus cash available for debt repayment and the Alberta Fund is determined after a number of required cash adjustments have been made. For 2023-24, this includes $5.1 billion from the 2022-23 final results to start the year.
- The Alberta Fund contribution for 2023-24 is forecast at $1.6 billion.
- Money in the Alberta Fund can be used toward additional debt repayment, the Heritage Savings Trust Fund, or one-time initiatives that do not permanently increase government spending.
Related information
From LifeSiteNews
Thousands of Albertans marched upon the province’s capital of Edmonton this past Saturday in the “I Am Alberta Rally,” calling for the province to immediately secede from Canada in light of increasing frustration with the Liberal federal government.
The rally saw an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 people march on the steps of the Alberta legislative building, demanding that a referendum be held at once to allow Alberta to leave Canada.
“We can’t delay. We can’t slow down,” well-known freedom lawyer Keith Wilson said at the rally as he spoke to the crowd.
“This is our moment. This is our future. For our families, for our children, for Alberta. Alberta will be free.”
The group behind the rally, the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), bills itself as a sovereignty advocacy group. As reported by LifeSiteNews earlier this year, the APP wants to put Alberta independence to a question to the people via a referendum.
The rally also comes after certain members affiliated with the APP such as Jeffrey Rath and Dr. Dennis Modry earlier the month met in Washington, D.C. with cabinet-level U.S. politicians to discuss Alberta’s potential independence from Canada.
U.S. President Donald Trump has routinely suggested that Canada become an American state in recent months, often making such statements while talking about or implementing trade tariffs on Canadian goods.
The APP on July 4 applied for a citizen-led petition presented to Elections Alberta that asks, “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?”
The group is hoping to have the referendum on the ballot as early as next year and has accused the Liberal federal government of encroaching on Alberta’s ability to manage its own affairs.”
The group says an independent Alberta would allow it to “keep our resources, grow our economy, and reinvest in Alberta families, businesses and infrastructure.”
As it stands now, the referendum question has been referred to the courts to see whether or not it can proceed.
Alberta Conservative Premier Danielle Smith does not support a fully independent Alberta. However, she does advocate for the province to have more autonomy from Ottawa.
As reported by LifeSiteNews, Smith said her conservative government will allow but not support a citizen-led referendum on independence.
Despite not advocating for an outright separate Alberta, Smith’s government has not stood still when it comes to increasing provincial autonomy.
Smith’s United Conservative government earlier this year passed Bill 54, which sets the groundwork for possible independence referendums by making such votes easier to trigger. The bill lowers the signature threshold from 600,000 to 177,000.
As reported by LifeSiteNews last week, Smith’s government introduced a new law to protect “constitutional rights” that would allow it to essentially ignore International Agreements, including those by the World Health Organization (WHO), signed by the federal Liberal government.
The calls for independence have grown since Liberal leader Mark Carney defeated Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre.
Carney, like former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau before him, said he is opposed to new pipeline projects that would allow Alberta oil and gas to be unleashed. Also, his green agenda, like Trudeau’s, is at odds with Alberta’s main economic driver, its oil and gas industry.
Alberta
Premier Smith sending teachers back to school and setting up classroom complexity task force
Taking action on classroom complexity
As schools reopen, Alberta’s government is taking action by appointing a class size and complexity task force to meet the challenge of increasingly complex classrooms.
Across Alberta, teachers are seeing more students with diverse learning needs and behavioural challenges, while incidents of classroom aggression are rising. To address these challenges head on, and in response to concerns raised by teachers, Alberta’s government will be appointing a Class Size and Complexity Task Force.
We recently formed the Aggression and Complexity in Schools Action Team to identify practical classroom focused solutions. Alberta’s government has received the action team’s draft final report and will use its recommendations to create a roadmap for safer classrooms. Alberta’s government will release the final report, and the task force will implement solutions, work with school boards to gather more data on classroom complexity and begin work to replace the 2004 Standards for Special Education.
“Teachers have made it clear that addressing classroom complexity and safety are among the most critical improvements needed in our education system. We are taking real action to meet those needs by strengthening classroom supports, hiring more teachers and educational assistants, and acting on the recommendations of the Aggression and Complexity in Schools Action Team. Parents, teachers and students all want the same thing – safe and supportive classrooms where every child can succeed.”
Teachers are vital to the success of Alberta’s education system. Over the next three years, school boards will be provided with funding to hire 3,000 teachers and 1,500 new education assistants to support students with complex needs. These funds may also be allocated to additional student support through assessments for complex needs, occupational therapy, physiotherapy or speech-language pathology, and other in-the-classroom supports.
“No teacher should ever be harmed while doing their job. We know that aggressive incidents have gone up sharply in recent years, and classrooms are becoming more complex. That’s why we’re doubling down on efforts to make classrooms safer and to give extra support to students who need it. Our goal is to create learning environments where every student can succeed.”
In November, Alberta’s government will work with school boards to gather information and data about class sizes and composition to ensure students are receiving the support they need. Information will be made available as soon as it is available and will be released annually thereafter.
Quick facts
- Between July and September 2025, the action team conducted engagement sessions with teachers, education partners and school boards through in-person and virtual sessions.
- This included front-line educators, families, disability organizations, community agencies, early learning experts and social service professionals.
- Budget 2025 included $55 million to help address classroom complexity – a 20 per cent increase from the previous year.
Getting Alberta’s kids back to school
If passed, Bill 2, the Back to School Act, will restore stability in Alberta’s education system and ensure students can return to learning without further disruption.
The ongoing teachers’ strike has disrupted classrooms across Alberta, setting back student learning and deepening achievement gaps. Each day schools remain closed, students lose critical instructional time, routine and support. This proposed legislation will end the strike and establish reasonable terms for a new teacher collective agreement.
“This strike has gone on long enough. It’s clear there’s no path forward unless we act. The Back to School Act refocuses everyone on what matters most, the education of Alberta’s students. Bill 2 puts students back at the centre of our system, while we continue to work with teachers and families to build lasting stability in Alberta’s schools.”
The Back to School Act legislates the terms of the September 2025 tentative agreement, which provided a 12 per cent salary increase over four years, additional market adjustments of up to 17 per cent for most teachers, and the hiring of 3,000 teachers and 1,500 educational assistants. The collective agreement will be in effect from Sept. 1, 2024, to Aug. 31, 2028.
“The time for labour stability is now. This legislation provides a positive path forward despite an interrupted school year. This is a necessary step and the most responsible decision for kids, teachers and parents. If Bill 2 is passed, it is my hope that classes will resume as soon as Wednesday, October 29.”
The last deal put on the table by the Alberta Teachers’ Association demanded an additional $2 billion from government. This was a clear display that the union had no intention to bargain in a reasonable manner with the government and present a fair offer.
“We believe invoking the notwithstanding clause is a necessary measure to end the undue hardship caused by the teacher strike. This strike has reached a point that is causing irreparable harm on student learning. Our government will not hesitate to use every available legal tool in defence of students.”
This legislation is the only responsible path forward to restore stability, protect students and ensure Alberta’s classrooms focus back on learning. Alberta’s government remains fully committed to strengthening the education system, supporting teachers, and putting the success and well-being of students at the heart of every decision made.
Key facts
- Bill 2 would end the province-wide teachers’ strike and legislates a new collective agreement.
- The agreement covers Sept. 1, 2024, to Aug. 31, 2028 and provides:
- A 12 per cent salary increase over four years.
- Additional market adjustments of up to 17 per cent for 95 per cent of members.
- 3,000 new teachers and 1,500 educational assistants to reduce class sizes and enhance support.
- These terms reflect the September 2025 tentative agreement recommended by the Alberta Teachers’ Association leadership.
- The legislation includes financial penalties for non-compliance and suspends local bargaining during the agreement to ensure labour stability through 2028.
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