Alberta
Alberta won the energy lottery
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
Some people blamed a small handful of natural gas plants being out of operation. Which is a greater concern – two of 87 gas fired units being down, or 88 of 88 wind and solar farms being down at the same time?
Alberta won the energy lottery millions of years ago. I’m not talking scratchers, but the Powerball. You know, the big American lottery that every so often is over a billion dollars?
Except Alberta’s winnings are much, much larger than that.
So why is it the weekend of Jan. 12-15, the jurisdiction that has more oil, gas and coal than God, because God gave all his to Alberta, was forced to beg its neighbours if they could spare a megawatt?
Because that’s what happened. It got so desperate the night of Saturday, Jan. 13, that the neighbours did not have another megawatt to spare. The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) and the government of Alberta sent out an emergency alert to every cellphone and TV screen in the province, calling on people to shut off everything from stoves to bathroom fans, as well as unplug block heaters and electric vehicles.
The only way this could happen is complete and utter incompetence at the top. It started with Rachel Notley, but Jason Kenney didn’t seem to do much to reverse her moves. Only Danielle Smith seems to have finally said, “No more!”
Former Alberta premier Rachel Notley’s push to get rid of coal as soon as possible and build as much wind and solar is a prime example of incompetence. While most coal plants converted to natural gas, not all units did, and hundreds of megawatts of cheap, reliable power were lost. Meanwhile, in the last two years Alberta’s wind and solar basically doubled, projects that mostly got their start under Notley. And yet there were moments during the weekend where both wind and solar hit zero output, sometimes at same time. Wind and solar’s theoretical capacity of 6,131 megawatts was a big fat zero.
And yet when Notley announced her departure as leader of the NDP on Jan. 16, she put out a video proclaiming the elimination of coal-fired power and kickstarting renewables among her greatest accomplishments.
Some people blamed a small handful of natural gas plants being out of operation. Which is a greater concern – two of 87 gas fired units being down, or 88 of 88 wind and solar farms being down at the same time, as happened the morning of Jan. 14? Indeed, the vast majority of the 87 gas units and 2 coal units were indeed providing nearly all of Alberta’s power throughout the weekend.
Those four days saw the AESO issue four “grid alerts” in a row. The second one was a much closer-run thing. As a last resort, they put all the grid-scale batteries into play, and those batteries were running out of juice after just an hour. The contingency reserve went to effectively zero.
If the province had not issued its emergency alert, the AESO since reported they were within a half hour of calling for rotating blackouts.
Thankfully, it did work. But what about next time?
The next step was rotating blackouts, and, if that didn’t work, major load shedding. And if that wasn’t enough, a replay of Texas, February, 2021, when 246 died. Except there would be more bodies, because it’s a hell of a lot colder here.
Lessons
There are some lessons from that weekend, and especially Saturday:
- Wind and solar totally and utterly fail when we need power the most.
- Do NOT expect your neighbour to be able to help you out. Often they can, and do. But as we saw Jan. 13, when your boat is sinking, your neighbour’s may be sinking faster. This was evident by the small amount of power BC sent Alberta. They routinely send 3x that. Montana was sending effectively nothing. And even though Saskatchewan was maxed out in sending what we had, it was not enough to bail out Alberta. Interties are good in many ways, but they must not be entirely relied upon.
- As a result, each jurisdiction must ensure it has ample supply within its own borders and control. And that includes enough dispatchable power to backfill every single megawatt of wind and solar, plus the possible loss of one of its baseload units. That 4 per cent contingency reserve is really not enough.
- If Alberta did go into rotating blackouts:
- What would have happened if that half hour turned out into half a day, or longer, with the temperature at -35 C as it was in Calgary? How many lives might be on the line? What would the property loss be, from things like frozen pipes?
- Whose head would the public be calling for on Monday morning? Oh wait, there was a fourth grid alert that morning.
- Alberta has more than five million vehicles registered. What would have happened if five million EVs were all plugged in that weekend?
- We cannot, we must not, allow this to happen here in Saskatchewan, or again in Alberta. But yet SaskPower keeps saying we’re going to build an additional 3,000 megawatts of wind and solar. We are on Alberta’s path. Alberta already has 6,131 megawatts of wind and solar. How’s that working out for them? Friday night – 6 megawatts. Saturday night – 90. Sunday morning, zero.
Fossil fuels account for up to 94 per cent of Alberta’s and 89 per cent of Saskatchewan’s power on any given day. We cannot, must not, allow ourselves to think any amount of wind and solar can keep us alive when the temperatures hit -35 C. That weekend in Alberta proved it.
Brian Zinchuk is editor an owner of Pipeline Online and occasional contributor to the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. He can be reached at [email protected].
Alberta
Alberta and Ottawa ink landmark energy agreement
The Governments of Canada and Alberta have signed a new agreement to more than double oil exports to Asian markets, address investment uncertainty and reduce emissions.
This new energy partnership is a critical step towards achieving Alberta’s and Canada’s shared goal of turning our country into a world energy superpower and building a stronger and more vibrant economy.
The new energy agreement includes:
- A declaration by the federal government that an Indigenous co-owned Alberta bitumen pipeline to Asian markets is a project of national interest.
- Agreement that the parties will work together to facilitate the application, approval and construction of a privately financed and constructed 1 million+ barrel per day, Indigenous co-owned bitumen pipeline to Asian markets through a strategic deep-water port.
- Commitment by the federal government that it will not be implementing the federal oil and gas emissions cap.
- An immediate suspension of the federal Clean Electricity Regulations, and agreement the parties will work towards the construction of thousands of megawatts of AI computing power, with a large portion dedicated to sovereign computing for Canada and its allies.
- Commitment by both governments to partner with the Pathways companies to finance and construct the world’s largest carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) project for the purpose of making Alberta bitumen amongst the lowest emission intensity barrel of heavy oil in the world.
- In order to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the Alberta and federal governments will design and commit to globally competitive, long-term carbon pricing and sector-specific stringency factors by Apr. 1, 2026, for large Alberta emitters in both the oil and gas and electricity sectors through Alberta’s TIER system.
- Entering into a methane equivalency agreement by Apr. 1, 2026, with a 2035 target date and a 75 per cent reduction target relative to 2014 methane emissions levels.
- Agreement to immediately consult and work with Indigenous partners and the Government of British Columbia to ensure their peoples enjoy substantial economic and financial benefit from the pipeline.
- Significantly decrease regulatory uncertainty through a variety of changes to various legislation, regulation and policy.
The new agreement also demonstrates that both Alberta and Canada are focused on ways to increase the production and export of Alberta oil and gas, maximize growth in AI datacentre and related industries in Alberta, assist Canada in achieving its national security goals, create hundreds of thousands of new jobs, all while reducing the emissions intensity of Canadian oil, gas and electricity through the development and implementation of CCUS, nuclear and other emissions reducing technologies.
“This is Alberta’s moment of opportunity to take the first steps toward being a global energy superpower and show the nation that resource development and sustainability can coexist. There is much hard work ahead of us, but today is a new starting point for nation building as we increase our energy production for the benefit of millions and forge a new relationship between Alberta and the federal government.”
Oil pipeline
An Indigenous co-owned bitumen pipeline to Asian markets will ensure the province and country are no longer dependent on just one customer to buy their most valuable resource. It is agreed this new pipeline would be in addition to the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline for an additional 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day destined for Asian markets.
This agreement also allows for needed adjustments to the tanker ban when the new pipeline to Asia is approved by the major projects office, as well as amendments that ensure Alberta’s energy companies can advertise their environmental leadership and efforts throughout the world without fear of penalty.
“This pipeline is an excellent opportunity to demonstrate partnership and progress. My hope is that it will create lasting economic benefits for First Nations and strengthen the relationships that matter most — government-to-government and community-to-community. Indigenous equity ownership is shaping Canada’s economy, and when our voices help guide every decision, we build trust and a future that will support generations to come.”
Oil and gas emissions cap
The federal government has also committed to not implementing the oil and gas emissions cap, allowing for a massive increase in oil production and private sector jobs and moving Alberta towards its goal of reaching six million barrels per day of oil production by 2030 and eight million barrels per day by 2035.
“The Energy Accord signed today by Prime Minister Carney and Premier Smith sends an important signal that Canada’s oil and gas development is integral to the economy and is open for business. This agreement shows that Canada is taking action to address regulations and policy that are impacting competitiveness and investment.”
“The Business Council of Alberta is delighted to see the removal of the oil and gas emissions cap, which was a cap on production and prosperity in Canada. Now, without the cap, Canada truly can grow energy production, export globally, and generate the investments and jobs that will help deliver a better quality of life for all Canadians.”
Clean Electricity Regulations
The agreement also includes the immediate suspension of the Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta, which will stabilize Alberta’s power grid and enable massive investments in AI data centres in the province. Instead, Alberta will work with the federal government and industry on a new industrial carbon pricing agreement, to be administered through Alberta’s TIER program.
Pathways and emissions reduction
Both governments are committed to working together with the Pathways companies to advance the completion of the world’s largest CCUS infrastructure project.
This will make Alberta a world leader in the development and implementation of emissions reduction infrastructure – particularly in carbon capture utilization and storage. Alberta bitumen will be the cleanest heavy oil on the planet displacing heavier emitting oil from Russia, Venezuela and Iran, and bringing better environmental and geopolitical outcomes.
“The Pathways Alliance appreciates the leadership of both Prime Minister Carney and Premier Smith in entering this important Memorandum of Understanding which supports the growth of an industry that is critical to Canada’s economy. We look forward to working on the details with both the federal and Alberta governments in the coming months with our shared goal of Canada being an energy superpower.”
Alberta
New pipeline from Alberta would benefit all Canadians—despite claims from B.C. premier
From the Fraser Institute
The pending Memorandum of Understanding between the Carney government and the Alberta governments will reportedly support a new oil pipeline from Alberta’s oilsands to British Columbia’s tidewater. But B.C. Premier David Eby continues his increasingly strident—and factually challenged—opposition to the whole idea.
Eby’s arguments against a new pipeline are simply illogical and technically incorrect.
First, he argues that any pipeline would pose unmitigated risks to B.C.’s coastal environment, but this is wrong for several reasons. The history of oil transport off of Canada’s coasts is one of incredible safety, whether of Canadian or foreign origin, long predating federal Bill C-48’s tanker ban. New pipelines and additional transport of oil from (and along) B.C. coastal waters is likely very low environmental risk. In the meantime, a regular stream of oil tankers and large fuel-capacity ships have been cruising up and down the B.C. coast between Alaska and U.S. west coast ports for decades with great safety records.
Next, Eby argues that B.C.’s First Nations people oppose any such pipeline and will torpedo energy projects in B.C. But in reality, based on the history of the recently completed Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, First Nations opposition is quite contingent. The TMX project had signed 43 mutual benefit/participation agreements with Indigenous groups along its route by 2018, 33 of which were in B.C. As of March 2023, the project had signed agreements with 81 out of 129 Indigenous community groups along the route worth $657 million, and the project had resulted in more than $4.8 billion in contracts with Indigenous businesses.
Back in 2019, another proposed energy project garnered serious interest among First Nations groups. The First Nations-proposed Eagle Spirit Energy Corridor, aimed to connect Alberta’s oilpatch to a port in Kitimat, B.C. (and ultimately overseas markets) had the buy-in of 35 First Nations groups along the proposed corridor, with equity-sharing agreements floated with 400 others. Energy Spirit, unfortunately, died in regulatory strangulation in the Trudeau government’s revised environmental assessment process, and with the passage of the B.C. tanker ban.
Premier Eby is perfectly free to opine and oppose the very thought of oil pipelines crossing B.C. But the Supreme Court of Canada has already ruled in a case about the TMX pipeline that B.C. does not have the authority to block infrastructure of national importance such as pipelines.
And it’s unreasonable and corrosive to public policy in Canada for leading government figures to adopt positions on important elements of public policy that are simply false, in blatant contradiction to recorded history and fact. Fact—if the energy industry is allowed to move oil reserves to markets other than the United States, this would be in the economic interest of all Canadians including those in B.C.
It must be repeated. Premier Eby’s objections to another Alberta pipeline are rooted in fallacy, not fact, and should be discounted by the federal government as it plans an agreement that would enable a project of national importance.
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