Alberta
Alberta government must restrain spending in upcoming budget to avoid red ink
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill and Milagros Palacios
Whether due to U.S. tariffs or lower-than-expected oil prices, the Smith government has repeatedly warned Albertans that despite a $4.6 billion projected budget surplus in 2024/25, Alberta could soon be in the red. To help avoid this fate, the Smith government must restrain spending in its upcoming 2025 budget.
These are not simply numbers on a page; budget deficits have real consequences for Albertans. For one, deficits fuel debt accumulation. And just as Albertans must pay interest on their own mortgages or car loans, taxpayers must pay interest on government debt. Each dollar spent paying interest is a dollar diverted from programs such as health care and education, or potential tax relief. This fiscal year, provincial government debt interest costs will reach a projected $650 per Albertan.
And while many risk factors are out of the government’s direct control, the government can control its own spending.
In its 2023 budget, the Smith government committed to keep the rate of spending growth to below the rate of inflation and population growth. This was an important step forward after decades of successive governments substantially increasing spending during good times—when resource revenues (including oil and gas royalties) were relatively high (as they are today)—but failing to rein in spending when resource revenue inevitably declined.
But here’s the problem. Even if the Smith government sticks to this commitment, it may still fall into deficit. Why? Because this government has spent significantly more than it originally planned in its 2022 mid-year plan (the Smith government’s first fiscal update). In other words, the government’s “restraint” is starting from a significantly higher base level of spending. For example, this fiscal year it will spend $8.2 billion more than it originally planned in its 2022 mid-year plan. And inflation and population growth only account for $3.1 billion of this additional spending. In other words, $5.1 billion of this new spending is unrelated to offsetting higher prices or Alberta’s growing population.
Because of this higher spending and reliance on volatile resource revenue, red ink looms.
Indeed, while the Smith government projects budget surpluses over the next three fiscal years, fuelled by historically high resource revenue, if resource revenue was at its average of the last two decades, this year’s $4.6 billion projected budget surplus would turn into a $5.8 billion deficit. And projected budget surpluses in 2025/26 and 2026/27 would flip to budget deficits. To be clear, this is not a far-fetched scenario—resource revenue plummeted by nearly 70 per cent in 2015/16.
In contrast, if resource revenue fell to its average (again, based on the last two decades) but the Smith government held to its original 2022 spending plan, Alberta would still have a balanced budget in 2026/27.
Bottom line; had the Smith government not substantially increased spending over the last two years, Alberta’s spending levels today would align with more stable ongoing levels of revenue, which would put Alberta on more stable fiscal footing in the years to come.
Premier Smith has warned Albertans a budget deficit may be on the way. To mitigate the risk of red ink moving forward, the Smith government should show real spending restraint in its 2025 budget.
Alberta
Alberta updates TIER system: Businesses can direct compliance payments to on-site technologies
Modernizing TIER to secure tomorrow |
Alberta is seeking to update the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) system to drive investment at large industrial facilities, helping companies stay competitive and protecting jobs.
This fall, Alberta’s government will introduce updates to the TIER system that would empower Alberta industries to invest in on-site emissions reduction technology that works for their specific businesses. Making Alberta’s highly successful TIER system even more effective and flexible will make industries more globally competitive while maintaining Alberta’s leadership in emissions reductions.
“TIER has always been about Alberta leading the way – proving to the world that it’s possible to increase energy production, grow the economy and lower emissions at the same time. These amendments build on that success by giving industry the certainty and flexibility they need to invest right here at home. We know this work is not finished. We will continue to press the federal government to match Alberta’s leadership with realistic policies and timelines so that together we can keep building an economy that is strong and ready for the future.”
“We are committed to ensuring our industry remains competitive and can once again bring in the capital investment needed to deliver safe, affordable and reliable energy to Canadians and the rest of the world. Enabling them to reinvest their dollars into their own facilities will be good for the environment while growing our economy and creating jobs.”
“TIER has played a critical role in helping Alberta energy be the most responsibly produced energy in the world. These changes will further allow our major energy companies to increase production and finance new world-leading emission reduction efforts consistent with Alberta’s Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan.”
Proposed updates to the TIER system include:
- Recognizing on-site emissions reduction investments as a new way for industry to comply with the TIER system in addition to the current options available, which include paying into the TIER fund or buying credits. This would reward companies for investing directly in emissions reduction technology that encourages innovation, supports local jobs and reduces emissions.
- Allowing smaller facilities that currently participate in the TIER system to leave or opt out for 2025 to reduce costs and red tape. Smaller facilities below the regulatory emissions threshold can face disproportionate compliance costs under the TIER system, which is mainly designed for large facilities. This change would help smaller industries save money and redirect resources into emissions reduction investments or other operational improvements for more cost savings. It offers flexibility, especially for small manufacturers and rural operations, which protects jobs across Alberta.
These changes will position Alberta, once again, as a world leader ready to meet the challenges and realities of shifting global markets, increased competition and trade uncertainty.
“We are pleased to see the Government of Alberta is taking steps to improve competitiveness of climate policy. Today’s announcement recognizes industry concerns around competitiveness and signals that the province is moving forward to support emissions reduction in a way that helps companies reduce emissions, compete for investment, and create jobs for Albertans. EPAC believes provinces are best positioned to lead on climate policy, and we look forward to continued work with Alberta.”
“Pathways Alliance appreciates the Government of Alberta’s efforts to support the oil sands industry and protect jobs. Direct investment through the TIER system is expected to encourage continued investment in emission reduction technologies, and advance innovative infrastructure. The oil sands industry looks forward to ongoing work with governments to strengthen global competitiveness and attract investment.”
Alberta’s economy is growing and emissions are declining thanks to the province’s common-sense approach. Alberta’s government will continue to work with industry to protect jobs, strengthen competitiveness and maintain Alberta’s position as the destination of choice for global investment.
Quick facts
- Alberta’s TIER system was established in 2007 and was the first of its kind in North America.
- Currently the TIER system includes about 60 per cent of the province’s total emissions, helping Alberta’s industrial facilities find innovative ways to reduce emissions and invest in technology to stay competitive, save money and create jobs.
- The TIER Regulation requires any facility that emits 100,000 tonnes or more of emissions in a year to meet annual emissions reductions using either a facility-specific or a sector benchmark approach.
- Under the current system, regulated facilities can comply using credits (carbon offsets, emission performance credits or sequestration tonnes) or pay into the TIER fund at $95 per tonne of emissions.
- Sectors regulated under the TIER system include oil and gas, oil sands mining, electricity, forestry, chemicals, fertilizers, minerals, food processing and waste.
- Since 2019, Alberta has invested $1.6 billion from the TIER fund into geothermal, hydrogen, energy storage, methane reduction, carbon capture and other technology projects, reducing approximately 70 million tonnes of emissions by 2030 and supporting about 21,000 jobs across the province.
Related information
Alberta
Alberta Education negotiations update: Minister Horner
President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Nate Horner issued the following statement about the ongoing negotiations with TEBA and the ATA:
“After announcing its intention to strike last week, the ATA provided its members with a document titled ‘Talking Points’ for teachers to use when speaking to parents and students about the current bargaining situation.
“The document falsely claims that the Teachers’ Employer Bargaining Association (TEBA) does not have the mandate to ‘negotiate on important issues such as class complexity, class size, support for students.’
“There are also other statements in the document that are misleading and confusing for parents, teachers and most importantly our kids, who are explicitly targeted by these communications.
“To be clear, the only item outstanding between the ATA and TEBA for a new contract is the union’s additional salary demands.
“TEBA’s most recent offer to the ATA included a guarantee to hire 3,000 more teachers over the next three years at a cost of about three-quarters of a billion dollars. This is what the ATA asked for in its previous offer and government’s response met that request. The parties are no longer disputing negotiations on that point.
“The current offer provides a salary increase of at least 12 per cent over four years with more than 95 per cent of teachers receiving more through a market adjustment, and would result in the best deal for teachers in all of Western Canada.
“The information in the ATA document is inaccurate. It intentionally misinforms the public, parents and students. TEBA has been left with no choice but to launch a legal challenge. The Alberta Labour Relations Board received our complaint today, asking the ATA and its president Jason Schilling to immediately retract their false claims and to stop using Alberta’s students and families for leverage in a bargaining dispute.
“The ATA’s leadership and communications strategy targeting families and children with false and misleading claims raises serious ethical concerns. The government must now correct the false narrative the ATA has created.
“I look forward to a speedy resolution of this complaint with the Labour Relations Board. When we have our resolution, we will consider next steps.”
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