Alberta
Finance Minister Nate Horner says Alberta on track to $2.4 billion surplus
Q1 update: Continued fiscal growth
Alberta’s strong fiscal management continues to secure Alberta’s future.
Alberta is on course to record a $2.4-billion surplus at the end of 2023-24, despite an unprecedented wildfire season and ongoing economic volatility. This is $94 million higher than forecast in Budget 2023.
Strong and prudent fiscal management will help Alberta remain the economic engine of Canada. The government’s new fiscal framework requires the government to use at least half of available surplus cash to pay down debt, freeing up money that can support the needs of Alberta families now and for decades to come. Based on the first quarter update, Alberta plans to eliminate $2.6 billion in taxpayer-supported debt this fiscal year.
“Alberta’s finances remain strong, and thanks to our new fiscal framework, Alberta’s fiscal position is poised to become even stronger. Our continued priorities of paying down debt and saving for the future will ensure we have the capacity to meet Albertans’ needs both today and well into the future.”
After the required 50 per cent of projected available surplus cash is used to pay off maturing debt, remaining surplus cash will be allocated to the Alberta Fund, where it can be used for additional debt repayment, contributions to the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and one-time initiatives that do not lead to a permanent increase in government spending. A projected $2.6 billion will be set aside in the Alberta Fund in 2023-24.
Revenue
Revenue for 2023-24 is forecast at $71.1 billion, a $491-million increase from Budget 2023.
Alberta’s robust business environment is attracting investment and people from around the country, driving a projected $1.5-billion increase in corporate and personal income tax revenue.
The corporate income tax revenue forecast has increased by $889 million, following a record-high year in 2022-23. At eight per cent, Alberta’s general corporate income tax rate is the lowest in the country. Alberta’s low taxes remain one reason investors choose Alberta.
Keeping life affordable is a key priority for Alberta’s government, which is why it paused the provincial fuel tax on gasoline and diesel in January. Extending the pause to the end of 2023 will save Albertans and Alberta businesses 13 cents per litre on gasoline and diesel for the rest of the calendar year. As a result, fuel tax revenue is forecast to be reduced by $532 million – money that is going directly back into the pockets of Albertans every time they fill up their vehicle.
Between April 1 and June 30, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil averaged US$74 per barrel. It is now forecast to average $US75 per barrel over the course of the fiscal year, $4 lower than the Budget 2023 forecast. The resulting impact on Alberta’s revenue is being offset by a narrower light-heavy oil price differential, which is now forecast to average US$15 per barrel, $5 narrower than at budget.
Bitumen royalties are projected to increase by $515 million in 2023-24; however, overall resource revenue is projected to decrease by $694 million from the budget forecast. Lower natural gas royalties account for most of the projected decrease due to weaker prices, robust North American production and the impact of wildfires on production in Alberta.
Expense
Expense for 2023-24 is forecast at $68.7 billion, a $397-million increase from Budget 2023. The expense increase before the forecast contingency allocation is $1.6 billion. Of this, $397 million is funded by dedicated revenue and $1.2 billion is set aside as a preliminary allocation from the contingency, leaving $323 million unallocated.
The unprecedented wildfire season in the province prompted Alberta’s government to act swiftly and responsibly to ensure the safety of Albertans in affected areas. To date, the government has allocated $750 million for fighting wildfires in the province this year, along with $175 million for uninsurable losses, $75 million of which is expected to be covered by the federal government, and $55 million, mainly for emergency evacuation payments. Alberta’s government will continue to support Albertans during difficult situations like natural disasters.
The operating expense forecast has increased by $179 million, mainly due to a $214-million increase in Health funding that is being fully offset by federal bilateral agreement revenue. Capital grant increases of $170 million are mainly for re-profiling projects from the 2022-23 fiscal year.
Debt servicing costs are forecast to increase $245 million from budget, mainly due to higher interest rates – reiterating the importance of government’s commitment to paying down debt.
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund
The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund is Alberta’s long-term savings account, and the government remains committed to growing it. The fund performed well during the 2023-24 first quarter, earning a two per cent return with a net investment income of $739 million. Its fair value of net assets on June 30 was $21.6 billion, an increase from the $21.2 billion recorded at the end of the previous fiscal year.
Over five years, the fund returned 6.4 per cent, which is 0.6 per cent above the return of its passive benchmark.
Economic outlook
By continuing to grow and diversify Alberta’s economy, Alberta’s government is continuing to exceed expectations. Alberta’s real gross domestic product is now expected to rise three per cent in 2023, up 0.2 percentage points from Budget 2023. Projections by private forecasters show the province is expected to lead the country in economic growth this year.
Robust population growth is supporting Alberta’s labour market and generating demand and activity in Alberta’s economy, ultimately boosting the province’s economic outlook. Although risks and uncertainty persist due to rising interest rates, high consumer prices and other factors, Alberta’s economy remains well-positioned to withstand any challenges that arise.
Quick facts
- The amount of surplus cash available for debt repayment and the Alberta Fund is calculated after several necessary cash adjustments are made.
- In 2023-24, the total amount available for allocation is forecast at $5.2 billion, which includes $5.1 billion carried over from the 2022-23 final results.
Alberta
Free Alberta Strategy petition demanding PM Trudeau fire Steven Guilbeault passes 13,000 signatures
News release from Free Alberta Strategy
Are you tired of watching elected officials flout the law and disregard public concerns with impunity?
Are you frustrated by a federal government that prioritizes arrogance over accountability?
If so, you’re not alone.
Over 13,000 people have signed our petition calling on Justin Trudeau to fire Steven Guilbeault.
Once one of Greenpeace’s most disruptive forces, Guilbeault has spent enough time in an orange jumpsuit to build up a reputation for deliberately ignoring both law enforcement and the courts.
Since then, his career has been marked by a troubling disregard for both legal boundaries and public sentiment.
In 2001, Guilbeault was found guilty of mischief for scaling the CN Tower in Toronto and displaying a banner.
He received a sentence of one year’s probation, was mandated to complete 100 hours of community service in Montreal, and was ordered to pay $1,000 in restitution.
The incident incurred approximately $50,000 in costs for the tower operators.
Shortly thereafter, Guilbeault orchestrated another audacious act, leading a Greenpeace team in a demonstration at the Calgary residence of then Alberta Premier Ralph Klein and his wife, Colleen.
They erected a banner, positioned ladders against the house, and ascended to the roof to install a solar panel.
The intrusion deeply unsettled Colleen Klein, who was alone at the time and feared a home invasion – she resorted to grabbing a broom for defense.
Despite his controversial background, Justin Trudeau’s decision to appoint Guilbeault as Minister of Environment and Climate Change raised eyebrows and elicited criticism.
Jason Kenney, then premier of Alberta, accurately predicted the consequences of Guilbeault assuming a significant role in Justin Trudeau’s cabinet.
“His own personal background and track record on these issues suggests someone who is more an absolutist than a pragmatist when it comes to finding solutions,” Kenney said.
It’s perhaps no surprise then that Guilbeault’s response to legal setbacks in his political career, such as the Supreme Court’s ruling on the unconstitutionality of his Impact Assessment Act, has been dismissive, indicating a stubborn adherence to his own agenda rather than a willingness to heed judicial guidance.
Instead of accepting that he was wrong and repealing the law, Guilbeault wants to pass minor amendments and pretend like the Supreme Court ruling never happened.
Worse, the amendments – buried 552 pages into a 686-page budget implementation bill – don’t fix the problem.
Guilbeault still has the power to control projects that fall under provincial jurisdiction.
Consequently, tensions between the federal and provincial governments have escalated, with Alberta poised to immediately challenge the amended legislation in court once again.
This charade is getting old.
This pattern of defiance and disregard for legal constraints has become wearisome, eroding public trust in the integrity of federal institutions.
The rotation of headlines proclaiming federal overreach and constitutional breaches underscores a troubling trend within the governing party, where arrogance appears to have supplanted prudent governance.
Guilbeault, with his checkered past and continued ignorance of the law since becoming Minister, are crippling public confidence.
A few months ago, we launched a petition calling on Justin Trudeau to see the light, and fire his most controversial Minister.
Since then, things have only gotten worse.
If you agree, and think Guilbeault should be fired, please sign our petition today:
Then, send this petition to your friends, family, and every Albertan so that they can sign too!
Regards,
The Free Alberta Strategy Team
Alberta
Fortis et Liber: Alberta’s Future in the Canadian Federation
From the C2C Journal
By Barry Cooper, professor of political science, University of Calgary
Canada’s western lands, wrote one prominent academic, became provinces “in the Roman sense” – acquired possessions that, once vanquished, were there to be exploited. Laurentian Canada regarded the hinterlands as existing primarily to serve the interests of the heartland. And the current holders of office in Ottawa often behave as if the Constitution’s federal-provincial distribution of powers is at best advisory, if it needs to be acknowledged at all. Reviewing this history, Barry Cooper places Alberta’s widely criticized Sovereignty Act in the context of the Prairie provinces’ long struggle for due constitutional recognition and the political equality of their citizens. Canada is a federation, notes Cooper. Provinces do have rights. Constitutions do mean something. And when they are no longer working, they can be changed.
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