Dan Knight

Governor Tiff Macklem signals the central bank is flying blind as Mark Carney’s Liberal government withholds fiscal plans, leaving Canadians to face rising prices and economic uncertainty.

The Bank of Canada—yes, the people in charge of stabilizing your currency, protecting your savings, and guiding the economy through the storm—held a press conference. The takeaway? They have no idea what’s going on.

If you missed it, Governor Tiff Macklem stood at the podium and told Canadians, with a straight face, that the Bank is keeping interest rates unchanged at 2.75%. Now, if you’re expecting that decision to come with some clarity, a plan, maybe even a roadmap for the months ahead—don’t hold your breath.

Why? Because Macklem said the Bank’s navigating ‘unusual uncertainty’ from U.S. trade moves, and they’re too unsure to pin down a forecast. Instead, they’re waiting for more numbers to make sense of the mess.

Just pause and think about that for a second. The central bank of one of the wealthiest nations on Earth—tasked with steering the economy—is flying blind.

But don’t worry, we were told. A rate cut might come in July. Maybe. Depending on how inflation behaves. Depending on how the economy holds up. Depending on a whole list of things no one can actually predict right now. Macklem says it depends on inflation being “contained.” But look around—consumer spending is falling, housing is slowing down, and people are losing jobs in sectors tied to trade. And he knows it.

He said, “The second quarter is expected to be much weaker.” Why? Because the growth we saw earlier this year was a mirage. Canadian companies rushed to export goods before U.S. tariffs hit. That inflated Q1 GDP to 2.2%. Now the adrenaline is gone and reality is setting in.

He didn’t say we’re in trouble. But he didn’t need to. When your central banker says growth was “pulled forward” and Q2 will be “much weaker,” he’s telling you the economy is already running on fumes.

And then there’s inflation. Now, according to the headlines, inflation dropped to 1.7% in April. Sounds good, right? Until you look at why. The reason inflation dropped is because the federal government eliminated the carbon tax, which temporarily lowered gas prices. That policy change alone knocked 0.6 percentage points off inflation. Not because goods got cheaper—because the tax man backed off for once.

Meanwhile, core inflation—the kind that actually matters—went up. Higher food prices, rising goods prices, supply chain costs—it’s all hitting Canadian businesses and families right now. Macklem even said it himself: “Underlying inflation could be firmer than we thought.”

So what does the Bank do when prices are rising for the wrong reasons and growth is falling for the right ones? Apparently, they wait. They gather “intel” from business owners and talk about “soft data.” That’s the technical term now: soft data.

But the real kicker—what’s actually driving a lot of this chaos—is U.S. trade policy. Tariffs are back. Yes, tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum were doubled again. And Macklem admitted that unpredictability is the biggest threat we’re facing. He said: “The trade conflict initiated by the United States remains the biggest headwind facing the Canadian economy.”

And what has Canada done to protect itself from that risk? Absolutely nothing.

In fact, Macklem came right out and admitted it. He said Canada’s overdependence on U.S. trade has been obvious for years. Here’s the quote:

“Canada’s trade is very concentrated with the United States. Look, it’s always going to be concentrated with the United States… but that doesn’t mean we can’t diversify our trade.”

So the solution has been obvious for decades. Diversify our exports. Strengthen our own internal market. Get serious about reducing  interprovincial trade barriers—yes, those still exist in this country. But none of it happened. None of it. Not under Trudeau. Not under Chrystia Freeland. And certainly not under the new “caretaker” prime minister, Mark Carney—Trudeau’s old global finance buddy.

The Deafening Silence from Ottawa: No Budget, No Plan, No Leadership

Now, let’s talk about what Tiff Macklem didn’t say—but might as well have.

At a time when Canadians are facing real economic stress—on housing, food, jobs, and savings—the Liberal government under Mark Carney has failed to table a federal budget. Let that sink in. We’re halfway through 2025, inflation is shifting, trade policy is in turmoil, and the federal government has not provided a single fiscal blueprint.

This isn’t just a minor oversight. In a presser filled with caution, hedging, and uncertainty, Macklem was asked point-blank how the lack of a spring budget is affecting the Bank’s ability to do its job. His answer? Chilling in its understatement:

“Whatever announcements come out of the government that are… concrete, clear plans with numbers on them—we will take those on board.”

But here’s the thing: there are no numbers. There are no “concrete” plans. There is no spring budget. Which means the Bank of Canada is operating without a fiscal anchor.

And that’s not a partisan jab. That’s a direct acknowledgment from the central bank governor. Monetary policy doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It relies on fiscal policy—how much Ottawa plans to spend, what kind of debt it’s taking on, whether it’s injecting or withdrawing demand from the economy. Without that information, the Bank is effectively being asked to navigate blindfolded.

Macklem was careful, as central bankers always are, but he sent a signal to anyone paying attention: the absence of fiscal clarity is a problem. In his words, it “complicates monetary policy planning.” That’s about as blunt as a central banker gets.

Yet in a moment of unintended honesty, he added this:

“To be frank, the budget is not the biggest source of uncertainty… It’s U.S. tariffs.”

Well, sure. America’s economic unpredictability is real. But what Macklem didn’t say—but we all know—is this: Canada’s lack of internal leadership is a close second. And that’s the part Ottawa doesn’t want to talk about.

And here’s the part that’s impossible to ignore, even if every outlet in this country refuses to say it: Mark Carney knows better.

He used to run central banks. That’s his entire résumé. He understands, better than anyone, that monetary policy doesn’t function in a fiscal vacuum. He knows the Bank of Canada requires a federal budget to plan ahead. He knows you can’t forecast inflation or economic activity if the federal government won’t even tell you how much it plans to spend, borrow, or tax. That’s not some fringe economic theory, that’s Monetary Policy 101.

And yet, despite knowing all of this, Carney is choosing not to deliver a budget. He’s actively keeping the Bank of Canada in the dark. Why?

Well, maybe it’s because he doesn’t want to show you the numbers. Because the numbers are bad. Because the spending is out of control. Because the debt is spiraling. Because if he puts it all on paper, if he gives us the hard data, then suddenly, the opposition can do what it’s supposed to do: hold his government to account.

And maybe, just maybe, Carney doesn’t want that. Not yet. Not so early in his reign as Trudeau’s heir. He doesn’t want the Conservative Party pulling apart his economic plan, and he certainly doesn’t want the Canadian people realizing that we are not collecting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, even as the Americans hammer us again with steel and aluminum levies.

He doesn’t want you to see the imbalance. Because if you did, if the average Canadian saw how weak and passive this country has become in the face of American economic aggression, you’d be furious. You’d demand answers. You’d demand change.

But instead, its all, “elbows down.” Quietly filtered out of the official narrative. No plan, no numbers, no debate—just vague promises, half-hearted reassurances, and a press conference where your central banker admits he’s guessing.

And you, the ordinary Canadian, are stuck with the consequences. You feel it every time you go to the grocery store. Food prices are still climbing. The latest inflation data shows that even as headline numbers tick down, your groceries are getting more expensive. Your paycheque isn’t going as far. And nobody in power seems to care enough to fix it.

So here’s the truth: the system is rigged. Not in some conspiratorial way, but in the most obvious, bureaucratic, cowardly way imaginable. Those in charge know the damage they’re causing. They just don’t want to be blamed for it.

And as always, it’s the people who work, save, and pay taxes—the people who still believe in this country—who get left holding the bag.

So the next time they tell you “everything is under control,” ask yourself: whose hands are on the wheel?

Because right now, it sure doesn’t look like anyone is driving.

Good-day, Canada.