Alberta
Any Downturn in Alberta’s Economy Would Inevitably Drag Canada’s Down With It
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
By Troy Media
Is anyone paying attention?
Canada is heading straight for an economic iceberg, and the rest of the country doesn’t seem to grasp the gravity of the situation. Alberta – long the engine of Canada’s prosperity thanks to its oil and gas sector – is facing a serious decline because the Trudeau government is obsessed with its net-zero policies. And if Alberta falters, the ripple effects will drag down the entire nation. But are we too preoccupied with federal climate targets to recognize the risks staring us in the face?
The Trudeau government’s push for net-zero emissions by 2050 may look noble on paper, but the real-world cost could be catastrophic. The numbers don’t lie: according to a recent column by Troy Media contributor Lennie Kaplan, Alberta’s oil production could drop by a staggering 54 percent by 2050. That’s not just a provincial problem; it’s a national economic emergency waiting to happen.
Let’s cut through the jargon. Alberta makes up about 15 percent of Canada’s GDP. If Alberta’s economy shrinks by $32 billion – as projected – it would trigger a 1.2 percent drop in Canada’s GDP. For context, that’s a multi-billion-dollar hole in a country whose economy is, itself, already in severe decline.
Does Ottawa think a shrinking economy will put us in a stronger position to innovate and grow? Or are they content with turning Alberta into a sacrificial lamb on the altar of climate policy, ignoring the fact that this will make Canada less competitive on the world stage?
Then there’s the job market. Alberta’s energy sector employs thousands and indirectly supports tens of thousands more across Canada. By 2050, again according to Kaplan, Alberta could shed 198,000 jobs – five percent of its workforce. These aren’t just oil rig workers; they’re engineers, construction crews, transport workers, and more.
It gets worse. When Alberta’s economy shrinks, industries from coast to coast that depend on Alberta’s vitality will also take a hit. If even 10 to 15 percent of those job losses trickle across the country, we’re looking at another 20,000 to 30,000 Canadians joining the unemployment line. Yet, where is the urgency to address this looming crisis?
Alberta isn’t just a provincial powerhouse – it’s also a major contributor to federal revenues. Between 2025 and 2050, the province’s contributions could drop by $221 billion due to declining oil and gas revenues. That’s less money for healthcare, infrastructure, and social programs from coast to coast.
For a federal government that already struggles to balance its books, the loss of up to $40 billion in federal tax contributions from Alberta is a fiscal disaster in the making. Where do they expect to make up that shortfall? Higher taxes? Slashed services? Or maybe another round of federal borrowing to kick the can down the road?
Alberta’s oil and gas isn’t just a provincial asset – it’s a critical part of Canada’s trade balance. In 2022, energy exports made up 20 percent of Canada’s total exports. Cut that by more than half, and you’re gutting Canada’s international trade position.
A $70 to 80 billion hit to export revenue could balloon the country’s trade deficit, further devaluing the Canadian dollar and making imports more expensive. In short, this isn’t just bad news for Alberta – it’s an economic calamity that could send shockwaves through every corner of the country.
And let’s not forget the federal equalization program. Alberta has long been a “have” province, contributing far more than it gets back. But if Alberta’s economy falters, it could soon be knocking on Ottawa’s door for handouts.
Imagine the political firestorm if Alberta becomes a “have-not” province, competing for federal support with the very provinces that have relied on its success. The strain on equalization could pit regions against each other, creating a toxic political environment when unity is more crucial than ever.
Does Ottawa even care?
Alberta’s decline isn’t just Alberta’s problem. It’s a Canadian problem. The Trudeau government’s climate obsession needs to take this into account. We cannot afford to sacrifice Alberta’s economic engine without dragging the rest of the country down with it.
What’s the plan to balance climate goals with economic reality? So far, there’s been little more than vague promises and short-term thinking. If Ottawa doesn’t wake up to the real-world consequences of Alberta’s decline, we’re all in for a harsh economic reckoning.
It’s time for our leaders to prioritize pragmatic solutions over virtue signalling. Because if Alberta goes down, the rest of Canada won’t be far behind.
First published here.
Troy Media is an editorial content provider to media outlets and its own hosted community news outlets across Canada.
From Resource Now
Alberta renews call for West Coast oil pipeline amid shifting federal, geopolitical dynamics.
Just six months ago, talk of resurrecting some version of the Northern Gateway pipeline would have been unthinkable. But with the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. and Mark Carney in Canada, it’s now thinkable.
In fact, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith seems to be making Northern Gateway 2.0 a top priority and a condition for Alberta staying within the Canadian confederation and supporting Mark Carney’s vision of making Canada an Energy superpower. Thanks to Donald Trump threatening Canadian sovereignty and its economy, there has been a noticeable zeitgeist shift in Canada. There is growing support for the idea of leveraging Canada’s natural resources and diversifying export markets to make it less vulnerable to an unpredictable southern neighbour.
“I think the world has changed dramatically since Donald Trump got elected in November,” Smith said at a keynote address Wednesday at the Global Energy Show Canada in Calgary. “I think that’s changed the national conversation.” Smith said she has been encouraged by the tack Carney has taken since being elected Prime Minister, and hopes to see real action from Ottawa in the coming months to address what Smith said is serious encumbrances to Alberta’s oil sector, including Bill C-69, an oil and gas emissions cap and a West Coast tanker oil ban. “I’m going to give him some time to work with us and I’m going to be optimistic,” Smith said. Removing the West Coast moratorium on oil tankers would be the first step needed to building a new oil pipeline line from Alberta to Prince Rupert. “We cannot build a pipeline to the west coast if there is a tanker ban,” Smith said. The next step would be getting First Nations on board. “Indigenous peoples have been shut out of the energy economy for generations, and we are now putting them at the heart of it,” Smith said.
Alberta currently produces about 4.3 million barrels of oil per day. Had the Northern Gateway, Keystone XL and Energy East pipelines been built, Alberta could now be producing and exporting an additional 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. The original Northern Gateway Pipeline — killed outright by the Justin Trudeau government — would have terminated in Kitimat. Smith is now talking about a pipeline that would terminate in Prince Rupert. This may obviate some of the concerns that Kitimat posed with oil tankers negotiating Douglas Channel, and their potential impacts on the marine environment.
One of the biggest hurdles to a pipeline to Prince Rupert may be B.C. Premier David Eby. The B.C. NDP government has a history of opposing oil pipelines with tooth and nail. Asked in a fireside chat by Peter Mansbridge how she would get around the B.C. problem, Smith confidently said: “I’ll convince David Eby.”
“I’m sensitive to the issues that were raised before,” she added. One of those concerns was emissions. But the Alberta government and oil industry has struck a grand bargain with Ottawa: pipelines for emissions abatement through carbon capture and storage.
The industry and government propose multi-billion investments in CCUS. The Pathways Alliance project alone represents an investment of $10 to $20 billion. Smith noted that there is no economic value in pumping CO2 underground. It only becomes economically viable if the tradeoff is greater production and export capacity for Alberta oil. “If you couple it with a million-barrel-per-day pipeline, well that allows you $20 billion worth of revenue year after year,” she said. “All of a sudden a $20 billion cost to have to decarbonize, it looks a lot more attractive when you have a new source of revenue.” When asked about the Prince Rupert pipeline proposal, Eby has responded that there is currently no proponent, and that it is therefore a bridge to cross when there is actually a proposal. “I think what I’ve heard Premier Eby say is that there is no project and no proponent,” Smith said. “Well, that’s my job. There will be soon. “We’re working very hard on being able to get industry players to realize this time may be different.” “We’re working on getting a proponent and route.”
At a number of sessions during the conference, Mansbridge has repeatedly asked speakers about the Alberta secession movement, and whether it might scare off investment capital. Alberta has been using the threat of secession as a threat if Ottawa does not address some of the province’s long-standing grievances. Smith said she hopes Carney takes it seriously. “I hope the prime minister doesn’t want to test it,” Smith said during a scrum with reporters. “I take it seriously. I have never seen separatist sentiment be as high as it is now. “I’ve also seen it dissipate when Ottawa addresses the concerns Alberta has.” She added that, if Carney wants a true nation-building project to fast-track, she can’t think of a better one than a new West Coast pipeline. “I can’t imagine that there will be another project on the national list that will generate as much revenue, as much GDP, as many high paying jobs as a bitumen pipeline to the coast.”
Alberta
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith Discusses Moving Energy Forward at the Global Energy Show in Calgary
From Energy Now
At the energy conference in Calgary, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith pressed the case for building infrastructure to move provincial products to international markets, via a transportation and energy corridor to British Columbia.
“The anchor tenant for this corridor must be a 42-inch pipeline, moving one million incremental barrels of oil to those global markets. And we can’t stop there,” she told the audience.
The premier reiterated her support for new pipelines north to Grays Bay in Nunavut, east to Churchill, Man., and potentially a new version of Energy East.
The discussion comes as Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government are assembling a list of major projects of national interest to fast-track for approval.
Carney has also pledged to establish a major project review office that would issue decisions within two years, instead of five.
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