This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Science and Technology Desk

New study finds billions more trees than expected, making boreal forests a bigger carbon sink than we thought

Canada’s boreal forests may be far more resilient to climate change than previously believed, with new research showing they contain billions more trees than past estimates, potentially boosting Canada’s natural defences in the fight against global warming.

Spanning from Yukon to Newfoundland, the boreal forest is one of the largest intact ecosystems in the world. It plays a crucial role in absorbing carbon dioxide, protecting biodiversity and supporting Indigenous and rural communities.

A new University of Alberta study provided the most accurate estimate to date of how many trees populate the boreal region, reducing long-standing uncertainties in forest carbon modelling and management.

The result: 277 billion trees across the boreal zone, including 30 billion in Alberta—31 per cent more than estimated in a major 2015 global study.

“Our research provides by far the most accurate and credible answer to the question of how many trees are in our boreal forests,” said study lead Fangliang He, a forest ecologist and Canada Research Chair in Biodiversity and Landscape Modelling.

“Knowing that there are 31 per cent more trees than previously estimated suggests our boreal forests have greater capacity to mitigate climate change.”
Tree counts like this help scientists and policymakers understand how much carbon forests can absorb and store, critical for estimating how large a role boreal ecosystems can play in national emissions strategies.

To improve on the earlier global estimate, He’s team compiled data from a record 4,367 tree plots across Canada and Alaska, compared with just 346 used in the 2015 study.

“This provides a large set of data with extensive geographic coverage in North America,” He said.

To measure trees 10 centimetres or larger in diameter—the same threshold used in the 2015 analysis—He and his team used an artificial intelligence algorithm to develop competition-based models that included tree height, a key indicator of forest competition. The use of AI allowed the researchers to detect patterns that traditional methods might miss.

“These innovative models represent a major advance in improving the accuracy of estimating tree count.”

The researchers also projected future tree density under a range of climate scenarios to see how the boreal forest might respond to a warming planet. The findings were surprising: under increasingly warmer conditions, tree density in the boreal forest would rise overall by at least 11 per cent by 2050.

“This result suggests that boreal forests might be more resilient to climate change than we thought,” He said.

The study, he added, underscores the need for better data and forecasting tools to support forest management and climate policy.

While the federal government has pledged to plant two billion trees by 2030, He said that effort is nowhere near enough.

“That number only accounts for 0.83 per cent of our estimated total number of 240 billion boreal trees in Canada, speaking to the mitigation challenge through tree-planting,” he said.

At current planting rates, he said, it would take centuries to match the natural regeneration and density needed to make a measurable impact.

“Protection of natural forests is the best nature-based solution.”

The study contributes to a growing body of research using artificial intelligence to model complex ecological systems, and could influence Canada’s future forestry and climate strategies.

Science and Technology Desk

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Will Gibson

‘Much of the habitat across the region is in good condition’

The footprint of energy development continues to occupy less than three per cent of Alberta’s oil sands region, according to a report by the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute (ABMI).

As of 2021, energy projects impacted just 2.6 per cent of the oil sands region, which encompasses about 142,000 square kilometers of boreal forest in northern Alberta, an area nearly the size of Montana.

“There’s a mistaken perception that the oil sands region is one big strip mine and that’s simply not the case,” said David Roberts, director of the institute’s science centre.

“The energy footprint is very small in total area once you zoom out to the boreal forest surrounding this development.”

Between 2000 and 2021, the total human footprint in the oil sands region (including energy, agriculture, forestry and municipal uses) increased from 12.0 to 16.5 per cent.

At the same time, energy footprint increased from 1.4 to 2.6 per cent – all while oil sands production surged from 667,000 to 3.3 million barrels per day, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator.

The ABMI’s report is based on data from 328 monitoring sites across the Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River oil sands regions. Much of the region’s oil and gas development is concentrated in a 4,800-square-kilometre zone north of Fort McMurray.

“In general, the effects of energy footprint on habitat suitability at the regional scale were small…for most species because energy footprint occupies a small total area in the oil sands region,” the report says.

Researchers recorded species that were present and measured a variety of habitat characteristics.

The status and trend of human footprint and habitat were monitored using fine-resolution imagery, light detection and ranging data as well as satellite images.

This data was used to identify relationships between human land use, habitat and population of species.

The report found that as of 2021, about 95 per cent of native aquatic and wetland habitat in the region was undisturbed while about 77 per cent of terrestrial habitat was undisturbed.

Researchers measured the intactness of the region’s 719 plant, insect and animal species at 87 per cent, which the report states “means much of the habitat across the region is in good condition.”

While the overall picture is positive, Roberts said the report highlights the need for ongoing attention to vegetation regeneration on seismic lines along with the management of impacts to species such as Woodland Caribou.

The ABMI has partnered with Indigenous communities in the region to monitor species of cultural importance. This includes a project with the Lakeland Métis Nation on a study tracking moose occupancy around in situ oil sands operations in traditional hunting areas.

“This study combines traditional Métis insights from knowledge holders with western scientific methods for data collection and analysis,” Roberts said.

The institute also works with oil sands companies, a relationship that Roberts sees as having real value.

“When you are trying to look at the impacts of industrial operations and trends in industry, not having those people at the table means you are blind and don’t have all the information,” Roberts says.

The report was commissioned by Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance, the research arm of Pathways Alliance, a consortium of the six largest oil sands producers.

“We tried to look around when we were asked to put together this report to see if there was a template but there was nothing, at least nothing from a jurisdiction with significant oil and gas activity,” Roberts said.

“There’s a remarkable level of analysis because of how much data we were able to gather.”