Alberta
Response to U.S. tariffs: Premier Smith

Premier Danielle Smith issued a statement following the announcement of tariffs on Canadian goods beginning Tuesday:
“I am disappointed with U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to place tariffs on all Canadian goods. This decision will harm Canadians and Americans alike and strain the important relationship and alliance between our two nations.
“Alberta will do everything in its power to convince the U.S. President and Congress, as well as the American people, to reverse this mutually destructive policy.
“We note the reduced 10 per cent tariff for Canadian energy. That is partially a recognition of the advocacy undertaken by our government and industry to the U.S. Administration. We’ve pointed outthe substantial wealth created in the U.S. by American companies and tens of thousands of American workers who upgrade and refine approximately $100 billion of Canadian crude into $300 billion of product sold all over the world by those same U.S. companies.
“It is also worth noting that if oil and gas exports are excluded, the United States actually sells more to Canada than Canada sells to the U.S. As I’ve stated to every American policymaker I’ve met with in these past months, Canada buys more from the U.S. than does any country on earth – more than the U.K., France, Germany, Italy and Vietnam combined. There is, therefore, no economic justification for tariffs imposed on any Canadian goods.
“Alberta will continue diplomatic efforts in the United States to persuade the U.S. President, lawmakers, administration officials and the American people to lift all tariffs on Canadian goods as soon as possible and to repair our relationship with the United States. I encourage all premiers and federal officials to do the same, especially as the effects of these tariffs begin to take their toll south of the border. Americans need to understand the detrimental consequences of this policy decision.
“Alberta will also work collaboratively with the federal government and other provinces on a proportionate response to the imposed U.S. tariffs through the strategic use of Canadian import tariffs on U.S. goods that are more easily purchased from Canada and non-U.S. suppliers. This will minimize costs to Canadian consumers while creating maximum impact south of the border. All funds raised from such import tariffs should go directly to benefit the Canadians most harmed by the imposed U.S. tariffs.
“Alberta will, however, continue to strenuously oppose any effort to ban exports to the U.S. or to tax our own people and businesses on goods leaving Canada for the United States. Such tactics would hurt Canadians far more than Americans.
“We also continue Alberta’s call for the appointment of a border czar to coordinate the securing of our border against illegal migrants and drugs moving in both directions, and to achieve our nation’s two per cent of GDP NATO commitment by 2027. These things should be done for the safety of all Canadians regardless of our trade dispute with the United States
“Despite the disappointment of today’s decision there is also an incredible opportunity before us as a nation. Canada can and must come together in an unprecedented effort to preserve the livelihoods and futures of our people and expand our political and trade relationships across the globe. We can no longer afford to be so heavily reliant on one primary customer. We must stop limiting our prosperity and inflicting economic wounds on ourselves.
“Rather, we must unleash the true economic potential of our country, which possesses more wealth and natural resources than any other nation on earth.
“To this end, Alberta calls on the federal government and our fellow provinces to immediately commence a national effort to fast track and build oil and gas pipelines to the east and west coasts of Canada, construct multiple LNG terminals on each coast, increase internal refining capacity, unleash the development of critical minerals, lower taxes, reduce red tape, tear down interprovincial trade barriers and re-empower provinces to develop our unique economies without constant federal interference and imposition of anti-resource development laws.
“Our province and our nation can overcome the formidable economic challenges ahead. But we can only do so if we start acting like a healthy and functional country that supports every province to export their best resources and products to world markets, thereby achieving their unique potential. By so doing, Canada can become one of the most prosperous and powerful nations on earth. Alberta stands ready to do our part if this true Team Canada approach is taken.”
Alberta
Alberta extracting more value from oil and gas resources: ATB

From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
Investment in ‘value-added’ projects more than doubled to $4 billion in 2024
In the 1930s, economist Harold Innis coined the term “hewers of wood and drawers of water” to describe Canada’s reliance on harvesting natural resources and exporting them elsewhere to be refined into consumer products.
Almost a century later, ATB Financial chief economist Mark Parsons has highlighted a marked shift in that trend in Alberta’s energy industry, with more and more projects that upgrade raw hydrocarbons into finished products.
ATB estimates that investment in projects that generate so-called “value-added” products like refined petroleum, hydrogen, petrochemicals and biofuels more than doubled to reach $4 billion in 2024.
“Alberta is extracting more value from its natural resources,” Parsons said.
“It makes the provincial economy somewhat more resilient to boom and bust energy price cycles. It creates more construction and operating jobs in Alberta. It also provides a local market for Alberta’s energy and agriculture feedstock.”
The shift has occurred as Alberta’s economy adjusts to lower levels of investment in oil and gas extraction.
While overall “upstream” capital spending has been rising since 2022 — and oil production has never been higher — investment last year of about $35 billion is still dramatically less than the $63 billion spent in 2014.
Parsons pointed to Dow’s $11 billion Path2Zero project as the largest value-added project moving ahead in Alberta.
The project, which has support from the municipal, provincial and federal governments, will increase Dow’s production of polyethylene, the world’s most widely used plastic.
By capturing and storing carbon dioxide emissions and generating hydrogen on-site, the complex will be the world’s first ethylene cracker with net zero emissions from operations.
Other major value-added examples include Air Products’ $1.6 billion net zero hydrogen complex, and the associated $720 million renewable diesel facility owned by Imperial Oil. Both projects are slated for startup this year.
Parsons sees the shift to higher value products as positive for the province and Canada moving forward.
“Downstream energy industries tend to have relatively high levels of labour productivity and wages,” he said.
“A big part of Canada’s productivity problem is lagging business investment. These downstream investments, which build off existing resource strengths, provide one pathway to improving the country’s productivity performance.”
Heather Exner-Pirot, the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s director of energy, natural resources and environment, sees opportunities for Canada to attract additional investment in this area.
“We are able to benefit from the mistakes of other regions. In Germany, their business model for creating value-added products such as petrochemicals relies on cheap feedstock and power, and they’ve lost that due to a combination of geopolitics and policy decisions,” she said.
“Canada and Alberta, in particular, have the opportunity to attract investment because they have stable and reliable feedstock with decades, if not centuries, of supply shielded from geopolitics.”
Exner-Pirot is also bullish about the increased market for low-carbon products.
“With our advantages, Canada should be doing more to attract companies and manufacturers that will produce more value-added products,” she said.
Like oil and gas extraction, value-added investments can help companies develop new technologies that can themselves be exported, said Shannon Joseph, chair of Energy for a Secure Future, an Ottawa-based coalition of Canadian business and community leaders.
“This investment creates new jobs and spinoffs because these plants require services and inputs. Investments such as Dow’s Path2Zero have a lot of multipliers. Success begets success,” Joseph said.
“Investment in innovation creates a foundation for long-term diversification of the economy.”
Alberta
Alberta government must restrain spending in upcoming budget to avoid red ink

From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill and Milagros Palacios
Whether due to U.S. tariffs or lower-than-expected oil prices, the Smith government has repeatedly warned Albertans that despite a $4.6 billion projected budget surplus in 2024/25, Alberta could soon be in the red. To help avoid this fate, the Smith government must restrain spending in its upcoming 2025 budget.
These are not simply numbers on a page; budget deficits have real consequences for Albertans. For one, deficits fuel debt accumulation. And just as Albertans must pay interest on their own mortgages or car loans, taxpayers must pay interest on government debt. Each dollar spent paying interest is a dollar diverted from programs such as health care and education, or potential tax relief. This fiscal year, provincial government debt interest costs will reach a projected $650 per Albertan.
And while many risk factors are out of the government’s direct control, the government can control its own spending.
In its 2023 budget, the Smith government committed to keep the rate of spending growth to below the rate of inflation and population growth. This was an important step forward after decades of successive governments substantially increasing spending during good times—when resource revenues (including oil and gas royalties) were relatively high (as they are today)—but failing to rein in spending when resource revenue inevitably declined.
But here’s the problem. Even if the Smith government sticks to this commitment, it may still fall into deficit. Why? Because this government has spent significantly more than it originally planned in its 2022 mid-year plan (the Smith government’s first fiscal update). In other words, the government’s “restraint” is starting from a significantly higher base level of spending. For example, this fiscal year it will spend $8.2 billion more than it originally planned in its 2022 mid-year plan. And inflation and population growth only account for $3.1 billion of this additional spending. In other words, $5.1 billion of this new spending is unrelated to offsetting higher prices or Alberta’s growing population.
Because of this higher spending and reliance on volatile resource revenue, red ink looms.
Indeed, while the Smith government projects budget surpluses over the next three fiscal years, fuelled by historically high resource revenue, if resource revenue was at its average of the last two decades, this year’s $4.6 billion projected budget surplus would turn into a $5.8 billion deficit. And projected budget surpluses in 2025/26 and 2026/27 would flip to budget deficits. To be clear, this is not a far-fetched scenario—resource revenue plummeted by nearly 70 per cent in 2015/16.
In contrast, if resource revenue fell to its average (again, based on the last two decades) but the Smith government held to its original 2022 spending plan, Alberta would still have a balanced budget in 2026/27.
Bottom line; had the Smith government not substantially increased spending over the last two years, Alberta’s spending levels today would align with more stable ongoing levels of revenue, which would put Alberta on more stable fiscal footing in the years to come.
Premier Smith has warned Albertans a budget deficit may be on the way. To mitigate the risk of red ink moving forward, the Smith government should show real spending restraint in its 2025 budget.
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