Alberta
Oil Sands are the Costco of world energy – dependable and you know exactly where to find it
From Resource Works
By Stewart Muir
Canada’s secret energy advantage: long life, no decline
Frankly, Canadians should hold the oil sands in higher esteem. The more I see how the world really works, the prouder I am of this resource.
When Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, speaks, the world listens. His latest warning is blunt: decline rates are the elephant in the room for global energy.
Oil and gas fields almost everywhere face natural decline. Shale wells lose about 70 per cent of their output in the first year. Many conventional reservoirs also taper off, often in the range of 5 to 7 per cent annually, though actual decline rates vary widely depending on geology and field management. The result is that nearly 90 per cent of global upstream spending now goes simply to replacing lost supply.
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, at right with the author in Winnipeg in 2017.
Birol estimates that it is taking about $500 billion a year just to keep the industry running in place. If that stopped, the world would lose the equivalent of Brazil’s and Norway’s combined production every year. That’s how steep the slope has become.
Which brings us to Canada’s quiet advantage. Our oil sands — especially the mining and upgrading projects in northern Alberta — don’t behave like shale. Once built, they produce steadily for forty years or more. No frantic drilling treadmill. No production cliff.
Oil sands insiders call this the “long life, no decline” advantage.
It may sound like inside baseball. But in energy economics, this distinction is huge. In fact, it’s so critical that one of the nation’s largest energy producers, Calgary’s Canadian Natural Resources, recently devoted an entire investor slide to it, spelling out the contrast between shale and oil sands. When a major company takes the trouble to educate even sophisticated investors, you start to suspect the point isn’t as widely understood as it should be.
Another underappreciated benefit of this advantage is what it makes possible on the decarbonization front. Because oil sands production is steady for decades, these assets provide a stable platform to deploy major emissions-reduction technologies — carbon capture and storage, small modular nuclear reactors, advanced heat recovery. These are not quick fixes; they require billions in upfront capital and long timelines to pay back. That kind of commitment makes little sense if your underlying resource base is collapsing year after year. Canada’s stability means we can make those big bets. When Prime Minister Mark Carney refers to “decarbonized oil”, some might dismiss that as magical thinking, but I’m pretty sure what he means is oil sands deposits that can be subject to long-term, intensive efforts to do all of these things – a luxury not available to those whose eggs are all in the drilling basket.
But there’s a bigger geopolitical conversation here. Surely if the United States wants to secure abundant oil in its own “backyard,” the logical step would be to ensure there is enough pipeline capacity from Canada. We’ve been here before with Keystone XL. The project became a political lightning rod, but the fundamental logic has not changed: the U.S. and their refineries will need reliable long-life oil for decades to come. Canada has it. The question is whether Washington is prepared to act in its own strategic interest.
That means the long life, no decline message is not just an investor presentation footnote. It’s a fact that needs to be recognized in Ottawa, in Washington, and across the Canadian public. In Ottawa, because policymakers must grasp that the oil sands are the crown jewel of Canada’s resource economy.
What Washington needs to keep front of mind is that Canada is not just a friendly neighbour — we are a cornerstone of North American energy security. Canadians, whose views have been shaped by years of opposition campaigns that tried to make us ashamed of the oil sands, seem to be open again to the possibility that energy is more complicated that polarized public debates often make out.
Frankly, Canadians should hold the oil sands in higher esteem. The more I see how the world really works, the prouder I am of this resource.
To understand in more detail what this long life, no decline phrase is all about, think of it this way. For decades, the global oil system has resembled hunting and gathering. Companies poke holes in the ground, chase short-lived wells, and then move on to the next patch. Technology has reduced the uncertainty, but the feel is still primitive — like a parent rushing to the corner store every night for a quart of milk. It works, but it’s expensive, unreliable, and not built for the long haul.
Canada’s oil sands are the opposite. They are the Costco of energy: a big-box supply that doesn’t run out after one trip. Instead of scrambling for the next well, the resource is completely known, concentrated in one place, and designed for decades of steady output. That allows entire communities, supply chains, railroads, and international ports to grow around it. The oil sands are less like hunting and more like a factory — stable, predictable, and always in stock.
If Costco can sell loyalty with a simple membership card, why can’t we brand Canada’s enduring energy advantage just as boldly?
Great observers of energy markets like Daniel Yergin and Anas Alhajji have hinted at this for years: decline is relentless, durable resources are rare, and those who hold them wield strategic power. The IEA’s latest report confirms it. Four out of five barrels of oil today come from fields already past peak. Nine out of ten cubic metres of natural gas come from the same category. The world isn’t just chasing new demand growth — it’s sprinting to replace what geology is taking away.
And indicators are that American oil producers sense the easy years of global oil dominance are fading fast. “The US shale business is broken,” said one executive recently, according to the Financial Times. “What was once the world’s most dynamic energy engine has been gutted by political hostility and economic ignorance.”
That’s why Canada’s message has to be clear and confident. This is not the time to downplay the value of our oil sands. It’s time to explain, unapologetically, that in a world of decline, Canada’s long-life, no-decline resources are indispensable.
Alberta’s government is engaging with Albertans on increasing speed limits on rural highways.
Starting Nov. 7, Albertans can share their views on modernizing speed limits on divided highways through an online survey running until Dec. 12. The survey will ask how Albertans view raising the speed limit by 10 km/h on various highways from 110 km/h to 120 km/h.
“Alberta’s government is investigating how to safely increase speed limits on divided highways, and if Albertans support increasing speed limits. We are investing more than $1.5 billion this year alone to improve highway safety and upgrade infrastructure across the province. We want Albertans to be able to drive the speed limit that the highways are designed for. Modern vehicles combined with public awareness mean we can explore higher speed limits.”
The survey will provide Albertans with the opportunity to provide input on which highways they would prioritize having a speed limit increase, their views on restricting commercial trucks from using the far-left lane on highways with three or more lanes and any other feedback that would improve driving experiences on provincial highways.
Following a review of the survey results, Alberta’s government plans to conduct a mini-trial of a 120 km/h speed limit to assess the impacts of higher speed limits on divided highways. The trial will include strong monitoring to assess driving behaviour.
Alberta’s government reminds motorists to slow down and drive to the conditions. Speed limits are set for ideal conditions. When roads are wet, icy or when there is reduced visibility, motorists should slow down.
Quick facts
- Alberta’s provincial highway network includes more than 64,000 lane kilometres of highways, about 11,700 lane kilometres of which are divided.
- The posted speed limits of Alberta’s divided highways range from 100 to 110 km/h, although the posted speed limits on segments passing through cities, towns and First Nation lands can be as low as 50 km/h due to factors such as signalized intersections, pedestrians and local access.
Related information
- The survey is available online.
A new Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee has been struck to address classroom challenges.
Taking action on class size and complexity
Classrooms in Alberta continue to grow and are becoming increasingly complex, and immediate action is needed to address these issues in the public education system. To meet these issues head on, the Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee has been created. The cabinet committee will help guide government policy and deploy resources to deal with class sizes and classroom complexity.
“We are committed to providing world-class education, and we’re building schools and funding education at a rate unprecedented in this province. This committee will help us address the concerns of teachers, parents and students around class sizes and complexity.”
Throughout November, Alberta’s government will continue work with school boards to collect data on class sizes and classroom composition. The cabinet committee will use this data to direct resources to the classrooms that need it the most. Starting in January, this data will be made available and released annually.
The Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee will be co-chaired by the Premier of Alberta and the Minister of Education and Childcare. It will also include non-voting members representing school boards, administrators and a teacher representative of the ATA. The committee will also hear from school boards, academic experts, teachers, educational assistants, complex needs specialists and parents to inform its decisions and guide this vital work.
“We heard teacher concerns, and we are providing solutions. The Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee will help us take immediate action and ensure teachers and students are given the support they need to succeed.”
In June 2025, Alberta’s government established the Aggression and Complexity in Schools Action Team to provide advice on addressing classroom complexity. The report has been received and will be released soon. Over the coming months, the cabinet committee will start rolling out solutions informed by the action team’s recommendations. In addition, the committee will guide the creation of a new inclusive education policy framework.
“The work of this committee will support teachers in responding to the growing complexity in our classrooms. We will ensure that the voices of the contributors to the initial work guide
solutions that truly improve the educational experience for students and the educators who serve them.”
“I appreciate the government’s recognition of the impact of classroom complexity and their commitment to working collaboratively for improvement. Supporting teachers ultimately improves classroom conditions and student outcomes.”
Using data collected, this cabinet committee will also guide Alberta’s government in executing its commitment to hire 3,000 new teachers and 1,500 new educational assistants over the next three years. They will also assist in identifying and prioritizing where new schools and modulars should be built, advancing the government’s commitment to invest $8.6 billion to build 130 new schools, and provide 109 modular classrooms in the growing communities that need them urgently.
Quick facts
- Members of the Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee include:
- Danielle Smith, Premier of Alberta
- Demetrios Nicolaides, Minister of Education and Childcare
- Jason Nixon, Minister of Assisted Living and Social Services
- Rick Wilson, Minister of Mental Health and Addiction
- Searle Turton, Minister of Child and Family Services
- Lynnette Anderson, chief superintendent, Edmonton Catholic Schools
- Nicole Buchanan, chair, Red Deer Public Schools
- Marilyn Dennis, former president of Alberta School Boards Association
- Mike McMann, superintendent, Fort Vermilion Schools and President, College of Alberta School Superintendents
- Joanne Pitman, chief superintendent, Calgary Board of Education
- Dr. Elissa Corsi, Alberta Teachers’ Association
- Only Cabinet members are voting members. Additional guests will be invited to attend and share their expertise at the discretion of the chairs.
- School boards will be required to submit data on Alberta classrooms by Nov. 24.
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