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Energy

Will Coastal GasLink Do for Natural Gas What TMX Did For Oil?

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7 minute read

From Resource Works

New pipelines already proving their worth

It may have taken a decade, but Canada’s Asia Pacific Gateway now has two new pipelines providing egress for Canadian oil and natural gas to Asia. They are already adding billions to the Canadian economy. TMX alone has added $13 billion to the Alberta economy just in its first year of operation, according to one economist.

One year after Alberta crude started sailing to Asia via an expanded Trans Mountain pipeline and export terminal in Burnaby, Canadian natural gas is also now making its way to Asia, via the Coastal GasLink pipeline and LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat. On June 30, the first LNG carrier loaded with liquefied Canadian natural gas left Kitimat.  To date, half a dozen LNG carriers have loaded up in Kitimat. LNG Canada expects to load one LNG carrier every two days.

In the past, lumber and metallurgical coal have been B.C.’s two most valuable export commodities. By 2026, I wager natural gas will surpass both commodities to become B.C.’s most valuable export. It’s a little too early to tell just what kind of uplift LNG exports will give to B.C. and Alberta’s oil and gas sector, but if TMX is any indicator, it should be substantial. The economics math here is pretty simple. In 2024, half of the natural gas produced in Canada was sold to the U.S. at a price of $2.50 per gigajoule ($2.63 per MMBtu), according to the Canadian Energy Regulator.

The Japan-Korea Marker for LNG prices in Asia, by contrast, is about $15 per MMBtu. So Canadian natural gas sold in Asia is currently worth about six times more than pipeline exports to the U.S. Like Alberta crude oil, Canadian natural gas producers have been selling natural gas at a steep discount to the U.S. For oil, the differential has narrowed, thanks to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, according to Charles St-Arnaud, senior economist for Alberta Central. St-Arnaud estimates the price differential between Alberta and American oil has narrowed by about US$8 per barrel, since TMX was commissioned. He estimates this narrower spread has increased revenues by US$9 billion ($13 billion Canadian). “This means that the reduction in the oil discount has boosted oil revenues by about 10 per cent,” St-Arnaud concludes. St-Arnaud estimates this will boost revenues to the Alberta government by $5.3 billion.

The $40 billion question now is whether the Coastal GasLink pipeline and LNG Canada export terminal will provide the same economic uplift for B.C. that TMX has for Alberta. The B.C. government is banking on it. Budget 2025 projects natural gas royalties will double — from $576 million in 2024-25 to $920 million in 2025-26, and $1.2 billion in 2026-27. Heather Exner-Pirot, director of energy, natural resources and environment for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, notes that even the Globe and Mail‘s editorial board has recently raised flags over B.C.’s massive $208 billion debt and worsening debt-to-GDP ratio. The taxes and royalties from LNG exports will provide important new revenues for B.C. “Your best hope for digging out some of that hole is natural gas exports,” she said.

There is currently such an over-supply of natural gas in Western Canada right now that it may take a while before we start seeing the kind of lift to B.C. gas that TMX gave to Alberta oil. Jackie Forrest, executive director of ARC Energy Research Institute, recently noted that, in 2024, Canadian natural gas sold for “about one-half of the U.S. price — effectively giving it away.” She estimates that, even if Canadian natural gas prices rise just $1 per gigajoule, as a result of new access to tidewater, “producers would gain an additional $7 billion per year.” “And this doesn’t even factor in the additional growth in gas and liquids production that new export terminals can unlock.”

In a recent ARC Energy Research Institute podcast with Mark Fitzgerald, CEO of Petronas Canada — LNG Canada’s second largest shareholder — estimated LNG Canada exports will be worth $2 billion a year to the B.C. economy. “Over the life of the project or the planning cycle that we use, that’s almost ($90 billion) in cumulative government revenue just to the government of British Columbia,” Fitzgerald said. He added: “That development, LNG Canada 1, with the upstream will create more than 100,000 jobs potentially annually across British Columbia.”

That’s just phase 1. The current output of LNG Canada — 14 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) — would double, if the LNG Canada partners sanction a phase 2 expansion. The construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline facilitated two LNG export projects — LNG Canada and Cedar LNG. But we need another natural gas pipeline to fully exploit our abundant natural gas resources and get full value for them. The next large project in the queue is Ksi Lisims LNG and the associated Prince Rupert Gas Transmission (PRGT) pipeline. This project would add another 12 MPTA of export capacity, not to mention tens of thousands of jobs.

In 2020, the Conference Board of Canada projected Canadian LNG exports could increase Canada’s GDP by $11 billion per year, generate $2 billion a year in additional taxes and royalties, and create 100,000 additional jobs. Had we listened to the critics, who said there would be no market in Asia for Canadian oil and natural gas, and had we not built TMX and CGL, we would still be hostage to a single customer, the U.S., for our oil and gas.  We would have foregone tens of billions of dollars in investments, revenue and jobs.

We will certainly hear the same arguments against PRGT and Ksi Lisims that we heard against CGL And LNG Canada. Let’s ignore them this time around, shall we?

Energy

Thawing the freeze on oil and gas development in Treaty 8 territory

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From Resource Works 

Will direct tenure awards to First Nations unlock Montney gas?

An innovative approach to facilitating natural gas production in B.C. while respecting treaty rights could become a case study for future cooperation and partnerships between First Nations, government and industry.

In an attempt to open an area that producers have essentially been shut out of in northeastern B.C., the B.C. government directly awarded oil and gas tenure to the Halfway River First Nation, giving them greater control over how oil and gas extraction in the area might happen.

That tenure is now getting “farmed out” to companies like ARC Resources.

“The granting of the tenure by the B.C. government to the nation is new,” said Greg Kist, executive manager for Tsaa Dunne Za Energy, the Halfway River First Nation’s energy business.

Greg Kist, former president of Pacific NorthWest LNG and current managing executive for Tsaa Dunne Ta Energy, THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh.

Depending on the outcome of the experiment, it’s the kind of thing that might one day be showcased at a future Indigenous Partnership Success Showcase event.

For more than two decades, a large area in Halfway River First Nation traditional territory in northeastern B.C. has been off limits to industrial activities like logging and oil and gas exploration and extraction, due to treaty rights.

In 1999, the BC Supreme Court quashed a timber harvesting permit approved by the province for Canfor, based on Halfway River First Nation’s Treaty 8 rights.

An extraction moratorium of sorts was placed over core HRFN territory, which happens to be in the “fairway” of the Montney natural gas formation.

“All of the lands were deferred from any further development,” Kist said. “And that meant everything from logging it, to oil and gas activities.”

This “deferral” of industrial activities in the area has been one of the question marks hanging over the oil and gas-rich Montney formation in northeastern B.C.

The 2021 BC Supreme Court Yahey decision had also left Treaty 8 territory dotted with question marks.

In Yahey, the court ruled cumulative impacts of activities like oil and gas development constituted a breach of the treaty rights of the Blueberry River First Nation, one of eight B.C. signatories to Treaty 8.

These various treaty rights rulings in northeastern B.C. create a serious challenge: How can B.C. continue to benefit from an abundance of natural gas to feed a burgeoning LNG industry without infringing the rights of Treaty 8 First Nations?

In the case of Halfway River, the B.C. government, the First Nation and industry are taking an innovative approach, using oil and gas tenure.

Last year, the B.C. government and HRFN signed a treaty settlement agreement that grants the nation more control over land use and development. As part of the agreement, the B.C. government directly awarded HRFN oil and gas tenure over 34,000 hectares of land. It was the first time the province has directly awarded oil and gas tenure to a First Nation.

In turn, the HRFN is now farming out its tenure rights to companies like ARC Resources, whose existing land holdings in the Attachie play are directly adjacent to the HRFN tenure.

“The resource quality is comparable to ARC’s existing Attachie asset, further extending the development runway at one of ARC’s most profitable assets,” ARC said in its second quarter financials at the end of July.

The tenure awarded to HRFN through its energy business, Tsaa Dunne Ta Energy, encompasses prime Montney real estate that had been essentially sterilized from development for decades.

“That 34,000 hectares is right in the middle of the Montney fairway,” Kist said.

Under an “earning and development” agreement with Tsaa Dunne Za Energy, ARC Resources will gain access to 36 parcels of land contiguous with its existing land parcel in the Attachie play. This expands its Attachie holdings by 10%.

Green area denotes Halfway River First Nation tenure; blue represents ARC Resources tenure.

“Think of it as Tsaa Dunne farming that land out to ARC, and we have an agreement that benefits us financially,” Kist said.

“The tenure award and landscape planning pilot will help to ensure that oil and gas development in these areas is sustainable and managed in accordance with the values of the Halfway River First Nation,” Chief Darlene Hunter said last year with the signing of the treaty settlement agreement.

Kist notes that the agreement with ARC represents only 25% of the land tenure granted to HRFN. So 75% of the land tenure could be open to further agreements with other natural gas producers.

“There will likely be more deals over time as we look at the different opportunities that are out there,” Kist said.

Kist is the former president of Rockies LNG and, before that, president of Pacific Northwest LNG. He and Jim Stannard, a former Petronas executive, are now managers for Tsaa Dunne Za Energy.

The tenure award does not represent a transfer of subsurface rights. All subsurface rights to things like minerals, coal, and oil and gas belong to the Crown.

“And at the end of the day, the B.C. government still gets its royalties,” Kist said. “But now the nation is very much in control of that activity.”

The recent agreement with ARC to develop 36 parcels adjacent to its Attachie lands is just the first one to be signed so far. There may be more such agreements in the future, Kist said.

Kist said the First Nation tenure model could end up being used elsewhere.

“I think the B.C. government’s going to look at these sorts of opportunities in areas where maybe there is a lack of development moving things forward,” he said.

“I think this could potentially be the model for development, with First Nations leading the way.”

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Alberta

Alberta’s number of inactive wells trending downward

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Aspenleaf Energy vice-president of wells Ron Weber at a clean-up site near Edmonton.

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Deborah Jaremko

Aspenleaf Energy brings new life to historic Alberta oil field while cleaning up the past

In Alberta’s oil patch, some companies are going beyond their obligations to clean up inactive wells.

Aspenleaf Energy operates in the historic Leduc oil field, where drilling and production peaked in the 1950s.

In the last seven years, the privately-held company has spent more than $40 million on abandonment and reclamation, which it reports is significantly more than the minimum required by the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER).

CEO Bryan Gould sees reclaiming the legacy assets as like paying down a debt.

“To me, it’s not a giant bill for us to pay to accelerate the closure and it builds our reputation with the community, which then paves the way for investment and community support for the things we need to do,” he said.

“It just makes business sense to us.”

Aspenleaf, which says it has decommissioned two-thirds of its inactive wells in the Leduc area, isn’t alone in going beyond the requirements.

Producers in Alberta exceeded the AER’s minimum closure spend in both years of available data since the program was introduced in 2022.

That year, the industry-wide closure spend requirement was set at $422 million, but producers spent more than $696 million, according to the AER.

In 2023, companies spent nearly $770 million against a requirement of $700 million.

Alberta’s number of inactive wells is trending downward. The AER’s most recent report shows about 76,000 inactive wells in the province, down from roughly 92,000 in 2021.

In the Leduc field, new development techniques will make future cleanup easier and less costly, Gould said.

That’s because horizontal drilling allows several wells, each up to seven kilometres long, to originate from the same surface site.

“Historically, Leduc would have been developed with many, many sites with single vertical wells,” Gould said.

“This is why the remediation going back is so cumbersome. If you looked at it today, all that would have been centralized in one pad.

“Going forward, the environmental footprint is dramatically reduced compared to what it was.”

During and immediately after a well abandonment for Aspenleaf Energy near Edmonton. Photos for the Canadian Energy Centre

Gould said horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing give the field better economics, extending the life of a mature asset.

“We can drill more wells, we can recover more oil and we can pay higher royalties and higher taxes to the province,” he said.

Aspenleaf has also drilled about 3,700 test holes to assess how much soil needs cleanup. The company plans a pilot project to demonstrate a method that would reduce the amount of digging and landfilling of old underground materials while ensuring the land is productive and viable for use.

Crew at work on a well abandonment for Aspenleaf Energy near Edmonton. Photo for the Canadian Energy Centre

“We did a lot of sampling, and for the most part what we can show is what was buried in the ground by previous operators historically has not moved anywhere over 70 years and has had no impact to waterways and topography with lush forestry and productive agriculture thriving directly above and adjacent to those sampled areas,” he said.

At current rates of about 15,000 barrels per day, Aspenleaf sees a long runway of future production for the next decade or longer.

Revitalizing the historic field while cleaning up legacy assets is key to the company’s strategy.

“We believe we can extract more of the resource, which belongs to the people of Alberta,” Gould said.

“We make money for our investors, and the people of the province are much further ahead.”

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