Alberta
Why The Liberal’s Real Estate Economy Could Push Alberta Out of Canada
The real estate maxim goes something like, “Don’t buy the best house on a bad street.” For Albertans smarting from the recent election, that sentiment is starting to gain momentum. Seeing themselves as the credit card for Carney Canada, 47 percent of Albertans recently polled by Leger say they’d consider ending the ties that bind to Eastern Canada.
There are many emotional arguments for the surge from 27 percent pre-election to the current number— starting with unending equalization payments to ungrateful relatives in Quebec and Ontario. Most pertinent to those dismayed by the East’s infatuation with Mike Myers and hockey sweaters is the unsustainable Trudeau Easy Money economy, the real estate bubble that replaced conventional economy since 2015. (Trudeau’s decade left Canada with the lowest GDP in the western world and a $1.26T debt.)
There are now clear signs that the real-estate economy— in the form of condos— created by Trudeau’s post-modern philosophy is about to dive and take with it a good deal of wealth from Canadians and the financial industry. (RBC, the largest lender in Canada just reported $8.94 billion in loans that are unlikely to be paid back, up 13.5% from the first quarter.) And distancing themselves from an unrealized gains tax on principal residences might be a smart move for Alberta and whoever else wants to save their skin.
For the decade before Donald Trump called his bluff, Woke Canada bought Trudeau’s notion you could have wealth without work. The Trudeau notion of an economy was to de-industrialize Canada, resort to “clean” renewable power and live off the equity in Boomers’ homes. Oh, and use billions in tax dollars to push home prices higher for the past 10 years while importing four million new entitled folks.
As Trudeau’s advisor, Mark Carney subscribed to the idea that playing the real-estate game to fund a modern state, the way Albania once based its economy on a lottery. Municipal governments liked the idea of condo financing, because it returned maximum taxation from a small footprint—unlike the cumbersome factories and plants that left for the suburbs.
So they’ve doubled down on real estate while letting traditional industry go to the third world. @MikePMoffatt shows that government taxes and fees add up to $253K on a brand new $1.350M condo in Vancouver, or roughly 19 percent of the price. That $12,000 explains how taxes— and taxes-on-taxes— add over $250K to a Vancouver condo.
This tax hauls why municipalities are pitching hard on multiple-dwelling zoning as a cure-all. No wonder developers in Vancouver are still paying almost double the assessed value for land to build high density housing. In their haste to go big Vancouver realtors are now turning down borderline clients.
But this formula is falling apart. In Toronto, the average monthly rent is now about $2,250. For a condo costing $600K that means’ the investment is $1,800 under water. Little surprise that 20 percent of the city’s condo developments refuse to close. (What has happened to the missing 20 percent? Was it paid off or was it extended in some way?
The economy has seen this bubble coming and yet no one wants to end the party. And that is with tens of thousands of units still to come on stream. You hear stories in the condo/ construction industry in southern Ontario, the Lower Mainland of B.C. and Montreal where a typical builder sold 10 homes in past 12 months compared to the usual 40. Sellers are building exteriors but leaving inside unfinished just to keep crews working.
Some trades say they haven’t worked in a year as the glut suspends work. This is the cost for basing an economy on real-estate speculation. It’s why the Liberals played so hard for the Boomer vote in the election. Calm the aging by protecting the equity built up on their modest homes sitting on valuable property. Which punishes the younger voters who skewed CPC in the election.
While the population booms in Canada and condos sit empty, there remains a dire need for affordable housing in all the main urban markets— including Calgary and Edmonton. But real estate in Canada can’t function based on interest rates over three percent. There is huge political pressure from tax-hungry governments on the Bank of Canada to cut rates. This leads to expectations of 2.79% mortgage rates by the end of 2025.
Mortgage analyst Ron Butler @ronmortgageguy: “From the Feb 2022 peak the regions in Ontario that had the highest run up in 2021 have dropped 17% to 22%. And they will drop some more. We all have begun understand just how big a Catastrophe the 416 Dog Crate Condos have turned into”. (Those who remember the crash of 1980s-1990s have that t-shirt.)
Now replicate the same results across urban Canada. Thousands of owners walking away from underwater mortgages and poorly built homes. While the Big 6 banks can probably sustain writing off that much paper, the smaller funding industry is going to get hammered. Says Butler” “You can’t run 30-year lows in real estate transactions with a 50 percent higher population forever without pressure building from factors like Marriage Breakdown, Old Age & Employment change. But price recovery? More pain coming.
For those who bought the Liberals’ “Change!” Platform as a new economic plan based on frugality and efficiency, guess again. With Parliament prorogued the Carneyites have been ladling out billions of dollars both pre-and post-election to keep the economy from stagnating. Still, 1.4 million Canadians missed credit payments in the first three months of 2025, up 146K from this time last year.
Getting as far away from this economic collapse as possible might just be the biggest incentive for Albertans to run their own show in the future. Siphoning off energy profits to save Toronto and Ottawa from condo crates and phoney real estate developments is hardly a patriotic incentive. (To say nothing of getting away from the offshore money-laundering operations now thriving in Canada.)
Carney’s Throne speech that was supposed to woo the West was full of the usual Liberal bromides that sound good but are quickly swallowed by process and review. Then pipelines he promised in the campaign? Guess again. If he’d wanted to help Canadians he’d have adopted a tax structure like Ireland, Japan or Hong Kong that would eliminate 80 percent of CRA staff.
But he’s not dong that because the Ottawa region where those CRA people live is solid red. His election owed much to white-collar unions and media that polished his apple. The contradictions between Carney’s promises and reality will soon pile up. His Euro-based climate and social media policies will tell on a jaded public. His housing minister— who has promised to stabilize house prices— produced 170 percent jump in home prices while mayor of Vancouver.
Which will give Danielle Smith all she needs to introduce plans, if not for separation, then for a new decentralized Canada. Book it by 2027.
Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, Bruce is regular media contributor. The new book from there team of Evan & Bruce Dowbiggin is Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL & Changed Hockey. From Espo to Boston in 1967 to Gretz in L.A. in 1988 to Patrick Roy leaving Montreal in 1995, the stories behind the story. In paperback and Kindle on #Amazon. Destined to be a hockey best seller. https://www.amazon.ca/Deal-Trades-Stunned-Changed-Hockey-ebook/dp/B0D236NB35/
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Deep Sky Alpha facility will trial technologies that suck CO2 from the sky
Innisfail, Alta. is set to host the world’s first test centre for technology that removes carbon dioxide directly from the air to fight climate change.
This June, Montreal-based Deep Sky completed construction of a $110-million carbon removal innovation and commercialization centre in the town about 120 kilometres north of Calgary.
It is a key piece of the company’s vision to build 100 large-scale facilities across Canada and become a pioneer in the emerging market for direct air capture (DAC) technology.
“As of this summer, we will begin not only carbon removal, which is actually sucking it out of the air through these very powerful fans, but also liquefying it and then putting it underground for storage,” Deep Sky CEO Alex Petre told CTV News.
Work began in August 2024 on the project known as Deep Sky Alpha, which aims to begin testing up to 10 different DAC technologies in real-world conditions. It is expected to be up and running this August.
The Government of Alberta is investing $5 million in the facility through Emissions Reduction Alberta.
The Deep Sky Alpha direct air capture test facility in Innisfail, Alta. Photo courtesy Deep Sky
Deep Sky’s facility will capture up to 3,000 tons of CO2 per year over the next 10 years, with room for future expansion.
Captured CO2 will be transported by tanker trucks about 200 kilometres north to Sturgeon County where it will be injected more than two kilometres below the surface into the Meadowbrook Carbon Storage Hub.
Operated by Bison Low Carbon Ventures, the project is the first approved under Alberta’s open-access carbon sequestration hub initiative and is expected to begin operations before year-end.
“We’re going to line up these eight units side by side and run them to see how they operate in the summer and in the cold of winter,” said Damien Steel, former Deep Sky CEO who continues to serve as a company advisor.
“We’ll be tracking everything to see how all these best-in-class technologies compare – what are their strengths and weaknesses – so that ultimately we can choose the best solutions to scale up for the major commercialization of carbon removal projects that are needed.”
Unlike typical carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects that scrub CO2 from the exhaust of heavy industrial facilities such as power plants, refineries, cement plants or steel mills, DAC utilizes different technology to remove much lower concentrations of CO2 directly from the atmosphere.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), there are 27 DAC plants operating worldwide, capturing almost 10,000 tonnes of CO2 per year. In order to reach net zero emissions by 2050, the IEA estimates DAC capacity must expand to more than 60 million tonnes per year by 2030.
Deep Sky selected Alberta for its test facility because of the province’s experience with CCS, including its advanced regulatory system for CO2 sequestration.
“To be successful at carbon removal you need three things: you need access to geologic storage, you need talent, and you need a reliable supply of renewable power to operate DAC facilities. Canada is blessed with these things, and Alberta especially has all of these attributes in spades,” Steel said.
Deep Sky Alpha is one of several clean tech projects underway in a five-acre industrial park in Innisfail as part of an economic diversification plan that was launched in 2022 to make the town a centre for energy innovation.
A municipal solar farm and a power plant that burns garbage and will be equipped with CCS to eliminate emissions are also under development.
Deep Sky says that more than 110 jobs were created during the construction phase of its Innisfail project and it will employ 15 people for annual operations.
Subsequent commercial plants it hopes to build across Canada will employ approximately 1,000 workers for construction and 150 for annual operations.
Steel said he expects the DAC test facility will become a destination for those looking to advance CCS projects around the world, showcasing Canadian expertise in the process.
“My hope is that not only will we learn and improve carbon removal technology, but we will also put Canada on the map in terms of being a place where innovation can thrive and this industry can work,” he said.
“It will be a place where corporate leaders, government officials and customers from around the world can come and see what direct air capture really is, how it works, and how Canada is the place to do it.”
Alberta’s Heritage Fund reaches new heights
Alberta is growing the Heritage Fund for what matters most – saving for the future to ensure a strong health care system, quality education and the lowest tax environment in Canada. By investing in the Heritage Fund, by 2050 Alberta will be on the path to energize its economy, create new opportunities and fund projects that make life better for all Albertans.
This $2.8-billion contribution marks a new record for the fund and keeps the province on track to reach its goal of $250 billion by 2050. The goal is to grow the fund to the point where, after 2050, Alberta would be able to withdraw some of the income the fund earns each year while still allowing it to grow over time. Those withdrawals could help cover fluctuations in resource revenue, invest in important infrastructure and keep taxes low.
“Alberta is turning resource strength into lasting financial security. By growing the Heritage Fund, we’re strengthening core services like health care and education, while preserving the low-tax Alberta advantage. This $2.8-billion boost to the Heritage Fund is a bold step that sets the province on the path to success and puts Albertans first.”
“This investment is a key step in securing a prosperous future with stable revenues and competitive taxes for Albertans today and tomorrow.”
Alberta’s government recently launched their plan, Renewing the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund: A Roadmap to Securing Alberta’s Future. This plan outlines how Alberta will grow the Heritage Fund to $250 billion by 2050 through strategic investments, global partnerships and strong governance, securing long-term economic growth and stability. These strategic investments will eventually fund the public services and infrastructure vital to supporting the growing province.
Central to the plan is the leadership of the Heritage Fund Opportunities Corporation. The updated corporation will modernize the fund’s management and help Alberta access global investment opportunities to create meaningful wealth and future prosperity. Led by board chair Joe Lougheed, the corporation will strengthen the governance of Heritage Fund assets and support investment decisions independent from government.
“Our role is to ensure the Heritage Fund is managed with the highest standards of governance and independence. By embracing global opportunities and modernizing oversight, we’re safeguarding Alberta’s wealth to deliver steady, long-term prosperity for Alberta’s future generations.”
This historic boost to Alberta’s Heritage Fund isn’t just about the numbers – it’s about building a future where families thrive, communities grow and Alberta stays strong no matter what comes next.
Quick facts:
- Alberta’s government invested $2.8 billion from the 2024-25 surplus cash in the Heritage Fund, growing the fund to $30 billion from $27.2 billion in 2024-25.
- This is up from $22.9 billion in 2023-24, the previous fiscal year.
- Alberta’s goal is to grow the fund to $250 billion by 2050.
- Once $250 billion is reached, interest from the fund will help stabilize resource revenue, invest in infrastructure and keep taxes low.
- Since 2019-20, the Heritage Fund has grown more than 84 per cent:
- from $16.3 billion to $30 billion.
- Since 2022-23, the Heritage Fund has grown more than 41.5 per cent:
- from $21.2 billion to $30 billion.
- The board of the Heritage Fund Opportunities Corporation brings together the skills and expertise of Alberta and international leaders in investment management to set Alberta up for long-term success. The current members are:
- Joe Lougheed, board chair, Alberta
- Kate White, director, Alberta
- Jacqueline Curzon, director, Switzerland
- Jouko Karvinen, director, Finland
- Chana Martineau, director, Alberta
- Mary Ritchie, director, Alberta
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