UK prime minister: Post-Brexit transition could be extended

BRUSSELS — British Prime Minister Theresa May said Thursday she is considering a European Union proposal that would keep Britain bound to the bloc’s rules for more than two years after it leaves, and idea that angers her pro-Brexit critics in the U.K.

At present the two sides say Britain will remain inside the EU single market, and subject to the bloc’s regulations, from the day it leaves on March 29 until December 2020, to give time for new trade relations to be set up.

But with divorce talks stuck, the bloc has suggested extending that period, to give more time to strike a trade deal that ensures the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remains friction-free — the main sticking point to a Brexit deal.

May said the U.K. was considering extending the transition period by “a matter of months.” But she said she didn’t believe the extension would be needed.

“We are working to ensure that we have that future relationship in place by the end of December 2020,” May said as she arrived at EU headquarters in Brussels on Thursday for meetings on migration, security and other issues.

The extension idea has angered pro-Brexit U.K. politicians, who see it as an attempt to bind Britain to the bloc indefinitely.

In an open letter to May published on Thursday, leading Brexiteers accused the EU of “bullying” and said the border issue was being used as “a trap” by the bloc.

The letter signed by former British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, ex-Brexit Secretary David Davis and other pro-Brexit Conservatives warned May not to “engage in a show of resistance and a choreographed argument followed by surrender” to the EU.

Divorce talks between Britain and the bloc have stalled on the issue of the Irish border, which will be the U.K’s only land frontier with the EU after Brexit. Both sides agree there must be no hard border, which could disrupt businesses and residents on both sides and undermine Northern Ireland’s peace process. But each has rejected the other side’s solution.

This week’s summit, which had been billed as a make-or-break moment, turned into a chance for both sides to give themselves more time — perhaps until the end of the year — to break the logjam.

May urged both parties to show “courage, trust and leadership,” but came to Brussels without the concrete new proposals the EU has asked for. Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier said that “we need much time, much more time, and we continue to work in the next weeks.”

The lack of progress means a special EU summit on Brexit that had been penciled in for next month to finalize a deal has been scrapped, though EU leaders said they would assess the situation in the coming weeks.

The next official EU summit is scheduled for December, just over three and a half months before Britain ceases to be an EU member. Any deal that is struck will have to be approved by the British and European Parliaments.

Conservative lawmaker Nick Boles said there was a growing worry among many U.K. legislators that Britain and the EU were “trying to run out the clock” in order to stymie opposition to their plans.

“They are trying to leave this so late that they can credibly say there is no alternative but a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, and most people agree that would be chaos,” Boles told the BBC.

Jill Lawless, The Associated Press

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Oil and gas in the global economy through 2050

Published on March 28, 2024

Todayville

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Ven Venkatachalam

The world will continue to rely on oil and gas for decades to come, according to the International Energy Agency

Recent global conflicts, which have been partly responsible for a global spike in energy prices, have cast their shadow on energy markets around the world. Added to this uncertainty is the ongoing debate among policymakers and public institutions in various jurisdictions about the role of traditional forms of energy in the global economy.

One widely quoted study influencing the debate is the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook, the most recent edition of which, World Energy Outlook 2023 (or WEO 2023), was released recently (IEA 2023).

In this CEC Fact Sheet, we examine projections for oil and natural gas production, demand, and investment drawn from the World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset, using the IEA’s modelled scenario STEPS, or the Stated Policies Scenario. The Extended Dataset provides more detailed data at the global, regional, and country level than that found in the main report.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the various scenarios

Every year the IEA releases its annual energy outlook. The report looks at recent energy supply and demand, and projects the investment outlook for oil and gas over the next three decades. The World Energy Outlook makes use of a scenario approach to examine future energy trends. WEO 2023 models three scenarios: the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).

STEPS appears to be the most plausible scenario because it is based on the world’s current trajectory, rather than the other scenarios set out in the WEO 2023, including the APS and the NZE. According to the IEA:

The Stated Policies Scenario is based on current policy settings and also considers the implications of industrial policies that support clean energy supply chains as well as measures related to energy and climate. (2023, p. 79; emphasis by author)

and

STEPS looks in detail at what [governments] are actually doing to reach their targets and objectives across the energy economy. Outcomes in the STEPS reflect a detailed sector-by-sector review of the policies and measures that are actually in place or that have been announced; aspirational energy or climate targets are not automatically assumed to be met. (2023, p. 92)

Key results

The key results of STEPS, drawn from the IEA’s Extended Dataset, indicate that the oil and gas industry is not going into decline over the next decade—neither worldwide generally, nor in Canada specifically. In fact, the demand for oil and gas in emerging and developing economies under STEPS will remain robust through 2050.

Oil and natural gas production projections under STEPS

World oil production is projected to increase from 94.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022 to 97.2 mb/d in 2035, before falling slightly to 94.5 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 1).