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Trump eyes ‘reciprocal’ trade deals over flat fee tariffs

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“We’re going to have tariffs, mostly reciprocal tariffs … probably reciprocal tariffs where a country pays so much or charges us so much and we do the same, so very reciprocal because I think that’s the only fair way to do it. That way no one is hurt. They charge us, we charge them”

President Donald Trump said Friday he was considering reciprocal trade deals with countries rather than flat fee tariffs on imported goods from other countries.

Trump touted tariffs throughout his campaign and during his inauguration said tariff revenue would make the U.S. “rich as hell.” He also said that tariff revenue would lower the tax burden on American taxpayers.

On Friday, the president said he would announce reciprocal trade agreements next week with multiple countries. His remarks came during a news conference with Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

“The United States will be conducting trade with all countries based on the principle of fairness and reciprocity,” Trump said.

The president said that chronic trade deficits undermine the U.S. economy.

“We’re going to have tariffs, mostly reciprocal tariffs … probably reciprocal tariffs where a country pays so much or charges us so much and we do the same, so very reciprocal because I think that’s the only fair way to do it. That way no one is hurt. They charge us, we charge them,” Trump said.

Trump said the reciprocal trade deals seem to be the path forward rather than flat fee tariffs. He said he would be announcing trade deals as early as Monday or Tuesday.

On Feb. 1, Trump hit Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs and levied an additional 10% tariff on China. Two days later, Trump suspended tariffs on the U.S. neighbors for 30 days after reaching preliminary deals with both Mexico and Canada. The leaders of both neighboring countries promised to strengthen border security. China responded with limited tariffs on U.S. goods and filed a complaint about Trump’s unilateral trade move with the World Trade Organization.

Most economists have panned Trump’s tariff plans. On Thursday, S&P Global, a credit-rating agency, reported the potential effects of Trump’s tariffs were “overwhelmingly negative.” S&P analysts said the tariffs could slow gross domestic product growth, boost unemployment and inflation. It noted that “the effects on the U.S. are smaller than for trading partners.” Gross domestic product, or GDP, is a measure of economic output. S&P noted the uncertainty around Trump’s tariff plans creates problems for businesses and U.S. families.

“Uncertainty around the path of U.S. policy and its objectives is high, and confidence bands around our forecasts are correspondingly wide,” according to the S&P report. “Moreover, the ongoing deal-making mode of the new administration risks complicating long-term decision making by both firms and households.”

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Trump Reportedly Shuts Off Flow Of Taxpayer Dollars Into World Trade Organization

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Thomas English

The Trump administration has reportedly suspended financial contributions to the World Trade Organization (WTO) as of Thursday.

The decision comes as part of a broader shift by President Donald Trump to distance the U.S. from international institutions perceived to undermine American sovereignty or misallocate taxpayer dollars. U.S. funding for both 2024 and 2025 has been halted, amounting to roughly 11% of the WTO’s annual operating budget, with the organization’s total 2024 budget amounting to roughly $232 million, according to Reuters.

“Why is it that China, for decades, and with a population much bigger than ours, is paying a tiny fraction of [dollars] to The World Health Organization, The United Nations and, worst of all, The World Trade Organization, where they are considered a so-called ‘developing country’ and are therefore given massive advantages over The United States, and everyone else?” Trump wrote in May 2020.

The president has long criticized the WTO for what he sees as judicial overreach and systemic bias against the U.S. in trade disputes. Trump previously paralyzed the organization’s top appeals body in 2019 by blocking judicial appointments, rendering the WTO’s core dispute resolution mechanism largely inoperative.

But a major sticking point continues to be China’s continued classification as a “developing country” at the WTO — a designation that entitles Beijing to a host of special trade and financial privileges. Despite being the world’s second-largest economy, China receives extended compliance timelines, reduced dues and billions in World Bank loans usually reserved for poorer nations.

The Wilson Center, an international affairs-oriented think tank, previously slammed the status as an outdated loophole benefitting an economic superpower at the expense of developed democracies. The Trump administration echoed this criticism behind closed doors during WTO budget meetings in early March, according to Reuters.

The U.S. is reportedly not withdrawing from the WTO outright, but the funding freeze is likely to trigger diplomatic and economic groaning. WTO rules allow for punitive measures against non-paying member states, though the body’s weakened legal apparatus may limit enforcement capacity.

Trump has already withdrawn from the World Health Organization, slashed funds to the United Nations and signaled a potential exit from other global bodies he deems “unfair” to U.S. interests.

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Alberta

Albertans have contributed $53.6 billion to the retirement of Canadians in other provinces

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Nathaniel Li

Albertans contributed $53.6 billion more to CPP then retirees in Alberta received from it from 1981 to 2022

Albertans’ net contribution to the Canada Pension Plan —meaning the amount Albertans paid into the program over and above what retirees in Alberta
received in CPP payments—was more than six times as much as any other province at $53.6 billion from 1981 to 2022, finds a new report published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Albertan workers have been helping to fund the retirement of Canadians from coast to coast for decades, and Canadians ought to know that without Alberta, the Canada Pension Plan would look much different,” said Tegan Hill, director of Alberta policy at the Fraser Institute and co-author of Understanding Alberta’s Role in National Programs, Including the Canada Pension Plan.

From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 per cent (on average) of the total CPP premiums paid—Canada’s compulsory, government- operated retirement pension plan—while retirees in the province received only 10.0 per cent of the payments. Alberta’s net contribution over that period was $53.6 billion.

Crucially, only residents in two provinces—Alberta and British Columbia—paid more into the CPP than retirees in those provinces received in benefits, and Alberta’s contribution was six times greater than BC’s.

The reason Albertans have paid such an outsized contribution to federal and national programs, including the CPP, in recent years is because of the province’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes, and younger population.

As such, if Alberta withdrew from the CPP, Alberta workers could expect to receive the same retirement benefits but at a lower cost (i.e. lower payroll tax) than other Canadians, while the payroll tax would likely have to increase for the rest of the country (excluding Quebec) to maintain the same benefits.

“Given current demographic projections, immigration patterns, and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth, Albertan workers will likely continue to pay more into it than Albertan retirees get back from it,” Hill said.

Understanding Alberta’s Role in National Programs, Including the Canada Pension Plan

  • Understanding Alberta’s role in national income transfers and other important programs is crucial to informing the broader debate around Alberta’s possible withdrawal from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP).
  • Due to Alberta’s relatively high rates of employment, higher average incomes, and younger population, Albertans contribute significantly more to federal revenues than they receive back in federal spending.
  • From 1981 to 2022, Alberta workers contributed 14.4 percent (on average) of the total CPP premiums paid while retirees in the province received only 10.0 percent of the payments. Albertans net contribution was $53.6 billion over the period—approximately six times greater than British Columbia’s net contribution (the only other net contributor).
  • Given current demographic projections, immigration patterns, and Alberta’s long history of leading the provinces in economic growth and income levels, Alberta’s central role in funding national programs is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
  • Due to Albertans’ disproportionate net contribution to the CPP, the current base CPP contribution rate would likely have to increase to remain sustainable if Alberta withdrew from the plan. Similarly, Alberta’s stand-alone rate would be lower than the current CPP rate.

 

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Nathaniel Li

Senior Economist, Fraser Institute
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