Russian suspects in poisoning: We were in UK as tourists

MOSCOW — The two Russian men spun an unlikely tale of hapless tourists defeated by grim British weather: They travelled more than 1,000 miles to see England’s famed Salisbury Cathedral but were turned back by slush and snow, then returned the next day and spent two hours exploring the “beautiful” city.

British officials had a more sinister explanation: Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov were highly trained military intelligence agents sent by the Kremlin to Salisbury to smear a deadly nerve agent on the front door of a former Russian spy.

Petrov and Boshirov, both charged in absentia by Britain last week for trying to kill Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, with the nerve agent Novichok, went on the Kremlin-funded RT satellite channel Thursday to proclaim their innocence, deny they were agents of the military intelligence service widely known as the GRU, and say they were merely tourists in the city southwest of London.

“Our friends had been suggesting for quite a long time that we visit this wonderful city,” Petrov said in the interview.

“They have a famous cathedral there,” Boshirov said, adding studiously: “It is famous for its 123-meter spire.”

James Slack, spokesman for British Prime Minister Theresa May, derided their claims as “lies and blatant fabrications.”

“More importantly, they are deeply offensive to the victims and loved ones of this horrific attack,” he said.

Britain said the attack was almost certainly approved “at a senior level of the Russian state,” an allegation that Moscow has vehemently denied.

Skripal, a Russian military intelligence officer turned double agent for Britain, and his visiting daughter fell ill March 4 from what Britain says was a Soviet-developed nerve agent; an investigating police officer also was hospitalized for about three weeks. In June, two area residents who apparently came across a discarded vial that contained the poison fell ill, and one of them died.

Britain identified the Russian suspects last week and released security-camera photos of them in Salisbury on March 3 and 4.

The surprise TV appearance by Petrov and Boshirov came a day after President Vladimir Putin said Russian authorities know the identities of the two men but insisted that they were civilians and there is “nothing criminal” about them. He urged to contact the media, and Petrov said he heard Putin’s statement on the radio and contacted Margarita Simonyan, RT’s editor-in-chief who conducted the interview.

Petrov said that on their first trip to Salisbury, they were unable to make it from the train station to the cathedral — about 800 metres (half a mile) — because of snow and slush. Much of Britain suffered such weather that day.

The weather was better the next day, when the two were caught on camera at the Salisbury rail station at 11:48 a.m. Ten minutes later, another camera found them walking in the direction of Skripal’s house — the opposite direction from the cathedral.

They again were recorded in the centre of town an hour later and were at the station by 1:50 p.m., two hours after arriving.

“We walked around, enjoying those beautiful English Gothic buildings,” Boshirov said. They got a flight back to Russia later that evening.

The men, who appeared to be about 40, claimed they did not know who Skripal was or where he lived.

Britain alleges the nerve agent used to poison the Skripals was carried in a perfume vial, which Boshirov dismissed by saying “Don’t you think it’s kind of stupid for two straight men to carry perfume for ladies?”

He bristled when Simonyan asked why the two men spent so much time together.

“Let’s not breach anyone’s privacy. We came to you for protection, but this is turning into some sort of interrogation,” he said.

They declined to give any other details about their lives, except to say they work in the nutritional supplements business.

“The whole situation is an incredible, fatal coincidence, and that’s that,” Petrov said. “What is our fault?”

Both men looked composed during the interview, but Boshirov said, “We fear for our lives.”

Boshirov did not react to the interviewer’s request to show the pictures they took on that trip, only saying that he found Salisbury Cathedral “very beautiful.”

John Glen, the Parliament member for Salisbury, offered a wry comment about the pair’s visit to his town, tweeting: “Delighted to see that Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov were able to see the world-class attractions that Salisbury has to offer. But very strange to come all this way for just two days while carrying Novichok in their luggage.”

___

Lawless reported from London. Associated Press writer Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow contributed.

Jim Heintz And Jill Lawless, The Associated Press

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Oil and gas in the global economy through 2050

Published on March 28, 2024

Todayville

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Ven Venkatachalam

The world will continue to rely on oil and gas for decades to come, according to the International Energy Agency

Recent global conflicts, which have been partly responsible for a global spike in energy prices, have cast their shadow on energy markets around the world. Added to this uncertainty is the ongoing debate among policymakers and public institutions in various jurisdictions about the role of traditional forms of energy in the global economy.

One widely quoted study influencing the debate is the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook, the most recent edition of which, World Energy Outlook 2023 (or WEO 2023), was released recently (IEA 2023).

In this CEC Fact Sheet, we examine projections for oil and natural gas production, demand, and investment drawn from the World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset, using the IEA’s modelled scenario STEPS, or the Stated Policies Scenario. The Extended Dataset provides more detailed data at the global, regional, and country level than that found in the main report.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the various scenarios

Every year the IEA releases its annual energy outlook. The report looks at recent energy supply and demand, and projects the investment outlook for oil and gas over the next three decades. The World Energy Outlook makes use of a scenario approach to examine future energy trends. WEO 2023 models three scenarios: the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).

STEPS appears to be the most plausible scenario because it is based on the world’s current trajectory, rather than the other scenarios set out in the WEO 2023, including the APS and the NZE. According to the IEA:

The Stated Policies Scenario is based on current policy settings and also considers the implications of industrial policies that support clean energy supply chains as well as measures related to energy and climate. (2023, p. 79; emphasis by author)

and

STEPS looks in detail at what [governments] are actually doing to reach their targets and objectives across the energy economy. Outcomes in the STEPS reflect a detailed sector-by-sector review of the policies and measures that are actually in place or that have been announced; aspirational energy or climate targets are not automatically assumed to be met. (2023, p. 92)

Key results

The key results of STEPS, drawn from the IEA’s Extended Dataset, indicate that the oil and gas industry is not going into decline over the next decade—neither worldwide generally, nor in Canada specifically. In fact, the demand for oil and gas in emerging and developing economies under STEPS will remain robust through 2050.

Oil and natural gas production projections under STEPS

World oil production is projected to increase from 94.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022 to 97.2 mb/d in 2035, before falling slightly to 94.5 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 1).