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Ottawa foresees a future of despair for Canadians. And shrugs

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This article supplied by Troy Media.

Troy Media By Lee Harding

A government report envisions Canadians foraging for food by 2040. Ottawa offers no solutions, just management of national decline

An obscure but disturbing federal report suggests Canadians could be foraging for food on public lands by 2040.

Policy Horizons Canada released the dire forecast on Jan. 7, 2025, in a report entitled Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question. It went largely unnoticed at the time, but its contents remain deeply concerning and worth closer examination.

Policy Horizons Canada is a little-known federal think-tank within the public service that produces long-term strategic foresight to guide government decision-making. Though not a household name, its projections can quietly shape policies at the highest levels. It  describes itself as the government’s “centre of excellence in foresight,” designed to “empower the Government of Canada with a future-oriented mindset and outlook to strengthen decision making.” Its current head is Kristel Van der Elst, former head of strategic foresight at the World Economic Forum.

The report warns that the “powerful promise” that anyone can get an education, work hard, buy property and climb the social and economic ladder is slipping away. Instead of a temporary setback, the authors argue, downward mobility could become the norm. They liken Canada’s future to a board game with “more snakes than ladders.”

“In 2040, upward social mobility is almost unheard of in Canada,” the report states. “Hardly anyone believes that they can build a better life for themselves, or their children, through their own efforts. However, many worry about sliding down the social order.”

While these scenarios aren’t firm predictions, foresight reports like this are intended to outline plausible futures. The fact that federal bureaucrats see this as realistic is revealing—and troubling.

Post-secondary education, the report suggests, will lose its appeal. Rising costs, slow adaptation to labour market needs, long program durations and poor job prospects will push many away. It predicts that people will attend university more to join the “elite” than to find employment.

Home ownership will be out of reach for most, and inequality between those who own property and those who don’t will drive “social, economic, and political  conflict.” Inheritance becomes the only reliable path to prosperity, while a new aristocracy begins to look down on the rest.

The gap between what youth are told to want and what they can realistically expect will widen, fuelling frustration and apathy. As automation and artificial intelligence expand, many traditional white-collar jobs will be replaced by machines or software. “Most people (will) rely on gig work and side hustles to meet their basic needs,” the report warns.

This leads to one of the darkest predictions: “People may start to hunt, fish, and forage on public lands and waterways without reference to regulations. Small scale agriculture could increase.”

The authors don’t propose solutions. Instead, they ask: “What actions could be taken now to maximize opportunities and lessen the challenges related to reduced and/or downward social mobility in the future?”

That question should concern us. Policymakers aren’t being asked how to prevent the collapse of social and economic mobility but how to manage its
fallout. Are those envisioning Canada’s future more interested in engineering a controlled implosion than fostering hope and opportunity?

Yes, artificial intelligence will bring challenges and change. But there is no excuse for despair in a country as rich in natural resources as Canada. Besides, the 2021 income data used in the report predates even the release of the first version of ChatGPT.

If policymakers are serious about restoring upward mobility, they must prioritize Canada’s resource economy. Ports, pipelines, oil and gas development, and mining are essential infrastructure for prosperity. When these sectors are strangled by overregulation, investment dries up—and so do jobs. The oil patch  remains one of the fastest paths from poverty to wealth. Entry-level jobs in the field require training and safety courses, not four-year degrees.

Similarly, post-secondary education doesn’t need to be as expensive or time consuming as it is now. We should return to models where nurses could earn certification in two years instead of being funnelled into extended university programs. And if governments required universities to wind down defined benefit pension plans, tuition would fall fast.

Unfortunately, there’s a real risk that policymakers will use reports like this to justify more wealth-killing socialism. A home equity tax, for example, might be pitched to avoid future tensions between renters and homeowners. Such a tax would require Canadians to pay an annual levy based on the increased value of their home even if they haven’t sold it. These policies don’t build wealth—they punish it, offering temporary relief in place of lasting progress.

Unless we choose a more sensible path, the controlled demolition of Canada will continue.

Lee Harding is a research fellow for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country

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Younger Casino Bettors Are Upping the Ante on Risky Gambling in British Columbia, Documents Show

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By Stanley Tromp

Younger casino players in British Columbia are significantly increasing high-risk gambling behaviours, while “gambling literacy” has declined over the past year, according to data from the province’s gaming provider, the BC Lottery Corporation.

This and other concerns were outlined in the Player Health Tracker Report by Ipsos Research, released in July 2024 and commissioned by BCLC. The Bureau obtained six reports totaling 903 pages through a Freedom of Information request. The findings point to an alarming rise in high-risk gambling among younger bettors in the second quarter of fiscal 2024/2025—raising fresh questions for BCLC, an agency previously criticized for prioritizing revenue over social responsibility.

“Younger players are known to display more high-risk behaviours, believe more strongly in gambling myths, and play more games, especially high-risk ones,” the report said.

To address this, Ipsos recommended that “BCLC could consider targeting younger casino players in its campaigns geared toward casino players, with messaging related to increasing gambling literacy and promoting safer gaming.”

The concerning trend comes under the watch of Premier David Eby. In 2018, when Eby served as B.C.’s Attorney General, he told CBC that his government should be doing much more to help gambling addicts.

Eby also pointed out that his NDP government had moved responsibility for the gaming industry from Finance to the Attorney General’s office in 2017, because “the B.C. Lottery Corporation should not be responsible for both revenue generation and regulation.” That decision was later reversed, with oversight returning to the Finance Ministry.

In a warning back in 2020, an internal briefing note from the B.C. Ministry of Public Safety highlighted the “rapidly changing” online betting market as a source of mounting risks.

The note said more people were gambling “in an environment that may not have appropriate responsible gambling and integrity controls, that may allow minors to gamble, and that may carry an increased risk for fraud and money laundering.”

The new survey results were based on 498 interviews with adults in British Columbia who had played at least one BCLC game in the past year. Three of the reports track changes in gambling behaviours from the first to the third quarter of fiscal year 2024/25—that is, from April to December 2024.

PlayNow.com is BCLC’s internet gambling platform, featuring online table games, slots, and sports betting. It was launched in 2004 and later expanded to other western provinces.

In the first quarter (April–June 2024), “PGSI behaviours increased significantly among PlayNow players,” according to the Ipsos report. (The Problem Gambling Severity Index, or PGSI, is a nine-item self-report scale measuring risky gambling behaviours in the general population.)

The highest-risk PlayNow users were identified as young urban males—“the least likely to feel responsible for what happens to them.” Their gambling motivations include “feeling tense and wanting to be in the zone,” factors not observed in other segments. They were also found to be the least likely to engage in responsible play, despite recognizing risks in their own behaviour.

In the second quarter (July–September 2024), PlayNow players’ high-risk PGSI scores trended upward, while gambling literacy declined. Ipsos warned: “Given that PlayNow players remain a more at-risk group, BCLC could focus on reinforcing gambling literacy and safer gambling behaviours.” It advised close monitoring to identify whether preventative actions were needed.

In the third quarter (October–December 2024), Ipsos observed a tentative improvement: “High-risk PGSI has declined significantly among PlayNow players, although the shift should be interpreted with caution due to lower base sizes… high gambling literacy has rebounded.”

Overall, Ipsos found that online players demonstrated stronger belief in gambling myths and more problematic behaviours than retail players. Their pre-commitment habits—such as setting spending limits—and overall gambling literacy were weaker by comparison.

Sports betting remained a distinct concern. “Given that online sports bettors continue to be a higher-risk group,” Ipsos wrote, “BCLC could benefit from maintaining targeted initiatives that tackle the specific challenges of sports betting and promote safer gambling practices, especially during major sporting events such as the Super Bowl, March Madness, and the NHL and NBA play-offs in the coming months.”

Casino players were a more at-risk group in the first quarter. In the second quarter, there was a significant drop in gambling literacy among this segment. But by the third quarter, Ipsos reported some improvements: “Casino players display some improvement in high-risk PGSI, high pre-commitment, and high gambling literacy this quarter.” Ipsos attributed this to a higher proportion of casual casino players compared to moderate or high-frequency players.

The public was also surveyed on which casinos or gaming community centres they had visited in the past 12 months. River Rock Casino in Richmond was the most reported location, with 27% of respondents naming it. This was followed by Vancouver’s Parq Casino (24%), Burnaby’s Grand Villa Casino (23%), and Coquitlam’s Hard Rock Casino (20%). Other B.C. casinos saw significantly lower visitation numbers.

However, from January to December 2024, “casino players are significantly more likely to believe several gambling myths compared to last year,” Ipsos warned. These included beliefs that: (1) casino staff can change game outcomes, (2) some slot machines are “hot” and due for a big jackpot, and (3) a payout rate of 85% means players will get back $85 of every $100 spent.

Ipsos cautioned that any gains in safer gambling behaviours and literacy may not be sustainable if belief in these myths continues to grow. It recommended that BCLC intensify efforts to dispel such misinformation.

Keno players were also flagged as high-risk during the second and third quarters, and showed low gambling literacy. “When looking at product cross-play, most Keno online players also play Keno at retail locations, and thus online players also exhibit a more at-risk profile,” Ipsos reported. (In February 2024, a B.C. player won $1 million playing Keno—the largest payout in BCLC history.)

BCLC has stated that its GameSense program provides players with information about how gambling works and offers tools to support informed decisions. The program aims to improve gambling literacy by helping players understand the odds of winning, distinguish between chance- and skill-based games, dispel common myths, and locate available resources.

However, in the second quarter, pollsters found that “awareness of a safer gambling education program in BC significantly decreased, as did awareness of the GameSense program across all business units.” In the third quarter, results were mixed: awareness of a safer gambling education program improved, and GameSense name recognition held steady, but both familiarity with and usage of the program declined.

The Bureau also obtained BCLC’s Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Tracker reports by Harris Insights for November 2024 (Q2) and February 2025 (Q3). Many pages were redacted by BCLC on the grounds that their release would cause financial harm.

These tracker documents monitor the corporation’s core business indicators and are reported to shareholders in annual statements and service plans. They are also used internally to evaluate performance across business units.

The Q2 report noted that “lottery-only players are declining and shifting to including casino and PlayNow games.” It also found that trust in BCLC games among facility players was significantly higher that quarter. Notably, PlayNow.com sports bettors used illegal betting websites significantly less in Q2 compared to Q1.

In Q3, cross-play between lottery, casino, and PlayNow increased from FY2023/24 to FY2024/25, as did the number of casual casino players and overall participation on PlayNow. At the same time, casual lottery play—such as Lotto 6/49, Lotto Max, Daily Grand, pull tabs, and scratch tickets—declined from Q2 back to Q1 FY2024/25 levels. Ipsos attributed this drop mainly to a loss of casual retail players, although overall lottery participation over the past year remained stable.

Finally, The Bureau reviewed a December 2024 report on BCLC’s “Social Purpose and Brand,” prepared by Unity Insights and Angus Reid.

Their survey data showed that core players across all BCLC facilities—casinos, community gaming centres, and bingo halls—had increased quarter-over-quarter. However, PlayNow sports bettors were increasingly using other websites for wagering, and the number of users betting exclusively on PlayNow declined.

The report also evaluated BCLC’s Integrated Enterprise Strategy, which aims to “increase the positive community and economic impact of gambling entertainment… and to leverage the BCLC brand to bring the commitment to social purpose to life.”

“Generally, consumers seem to articulate a sense of skepticism when it comes to any organization claiming to provide social benefits,” the pollsters wrote. “Virtue signaling was brought up in a negative light (moral grandstanding), where many did not understand how an organization could exist to provide social benefits while balancing profit generation.”

The report posed a direct challenge to BCLC’s leadership: What is the goal of its Social Purpose platform? “Are we trying to use our commitment to social purpose as a lever for acquisition, or is this truly about uplifting a social cause regardless of the business outcome?”

The authors suggested reframing the approach to center on the public. “BCLC players are committed to social purpose, and we thank them for that,” they wrote—before floating a new brand slogan: “BCLC = British Columbians Love Community.”

Stanley Tromp is a graduate of the University of British Columbia Political Science department and an expert on Freedom of Information.

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Trump reins in oil markets with one Truth Social post

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MXM logo MxM News

Quick Hit:

President Trump on Monday warned oil producers not to raise prices in the wake of U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, cautioning that a spike would benefit America’s enemies. “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING!”

Key Details:

  • Trump posted on Truth Social: “YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”

  • Oil prices fell after the post, with Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate both slipping by about one percent following earlier gains driven by Middle East tensions.

  • In a follow-up message, Trump told the Department of Energy: “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!”

Diving Deeper:

President Donald Trump issued a blunt warning to oil producers Monday morning following a weekend of U.S. military action against Iran, urging them to keep prices under control amid rising geopolitical tensions. His message, posted on Truth Social, was clear and emphatic: “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”

The timing of the post was significant. Over the weekend, U.S. forces struck three major Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—in a bold escalation that raised fears of a broader regional conflict and potential threats to global energy infrastructure. Initial market reactions were swift, with Brent Crude jumping over 5 percent and briefly breaking above $81 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate followed, climbing to its highest level since January.

However, after Trump’s post circulated Monday, both benchmarks began to pull back, each falling by about one percent. Traders appeared to interpret Trump’s comments as a call for restraint, especially as domestic producers weigh output decisions amid a softening price environment and a looser global supply picture.

While Trump didn’t name names, his message seemed clearly aimed at American oil companies, some of which have recently floated the possibility of scaling back production due to lower margins. Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues its efforts to bring previously curtailed output back online, further complicating the global supply-demand dynamic.

In a second post, Trump added: “To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!”

Despite the military flare-up, markets have largely stabilized, suggesting that investors are waiting to see how Iran will respond. Tehran’s parliament has called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipping, but such a move would require the approval of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

For now, traders appear cautious but unconvinced that supply routes will be disrupted in the immediate term. Trump, however, has made it clear that if oil producers try to capitalize on the crisis by raising prices, he’ll be watching—and he won’t be quiet.

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