Dr. Daniele Maccini is a doctor on the front line of Italy’s fight against coronavirus 

This is from his Facebook post from late February which is just as COVID-19 began to devastate Italy’s health care system.  It has been translated from Italian.

Good morning everyone. For various reasons it’s been a lot since I posted on Facebook. But today I think it is useful to spend a page to share and ask you to share the words of a fellow common sense reanimator who in my opinion has been able to summarize a message that I would like to be transposed by everyone, regarding what is happening about the epidemic from Coronavirus Covid 19.

Therefore I quote:

” Coronavirus: we explain why you don’t have to be afraid but you have to stay at home.
I’m a CPR doctor and this is why I allow myself to explain why the State is making such drastic decisions.
The problem with Coronavirus is not its gravity, since it is only 10, or maybe 20 times more serious than the flu. Why is it more serious than flu?
It’s different, so we’re not very used to it;
Elders are not vaccinated.
So who is more at risk? The elders. As usual. Children much less, no serious paediatric cases are reported for the time being.
So why do we worry so much? Because it is MUCH MORE INFECTIVE than the flu, that means it is transmitted with enormous ease.
At this point let’s do some calculations so we can better understand what the problem is.

The Influence
As a rule, flu hits over a season, let’s assume in 5 months, about 10 % of the population. So it hits around 5 million Italians in the span of 30*5 = 150 days. Mortality is 0,1 %, so we have about 5000 deaths (almost all elderly) every year in 150 days. For each dead, we suppose we have about 4-5 patients in CPR, to keep us wide, and everyone should be put into ICU. We then put 25.000 people in ICU in 150 days, with an average inpatient of 7 days, which means 1000-2000 patients a day in ICU in Italy during the winter.
Let’s summarize:
Infectivity: 10 % potential (real data) = 50 million * 10 % = 5 million infected, many of them unaware.
Mortality: 0,1 % estimated = 5000 people in 150 days.
Critics: 5*0,1 % = 25.000 people in 150 days. so about 1000-2000 people in ICU a day due to flu.
The beds in ICU are for the province of Venice, where I live, about 60 out of 1 million inhabitants, so it could be about 4000 across Italy. This means that at worst case scenario patients with flu and its complications, i.e. pneumonia, occupy between 25 % and 50 % at maximum intensive therapies in Italy at peak.

The Coronavirus
Let’s see now what can happen with the Coronavirus. Let’s remember that the big difference is that Coronavirus is extremely more infectious and could infect us, instead of in 150 days, in 30-60 days. Suppose 60 days. Let’s remember that it can affect up to 60 % of the population, estimated data, so let’s do some calculations:
Infectivity: 60 % potential (estimated data) = 50 million * 60 % = 30 million infected, of which the vast majority unaware.
mortality: 1-2 % estimated = between 500.000 and 1.000.000 million people.
Critics: 5 % = 1.500.000 people in 60 days. so about 300.000 people in ICU.
But we only have 4000 beds! How can we put 300.000 people in ICU when we only have 4000 beds?
NOW YOU UNDERSTAND WHY YOU NEED TO BE HOME?
If you stay home, people get infected little by bit. Many don’t notice. The others, especially the elderly, but also some young people, we doctors and nurses take them, put them in ICU, treat them and return them to you. A little bit at a time.
If everyone leaves the house, the risk is that they will all get infected together and that we cannot manage them, with an important increase in mortality.
YOU DON ‘ T HAVE TO PANIC BUT TAKE IT SERIOUSLY. STAY HOME.

And above all, let me add, don’t come to the ER for futile reasons. We always say it but this time it’s even more important.”

So don’t be scared: each of you who will read this message has a very low probability of having big trouble from this infection, but try to behave so as to safeguard everyone’s good because there are many people (maybe even your acquaintances) who can instead risk a lot.

My endless date with self-isolation has led to some sobering realizations