COVID-19
You don’t have to be afraid but you have to stay at home – From the front line in Italy
Dr. Daniele Maccini is a doctor on the front line of Italy’s fight against coronavirus
This is from his Facebook post from late February which is just as COVID-19 began to devastate Italy’s health care system. It has been translated from Italian.
Good morning everyone. For various reasons it’s been a lot since I posted on Facebook. But today I think it is useful to spend a page to share and ask you to share the words of a fellow common sense reanimator who in my opinion has been able to summarize a message that I would like to be transposed by everyone, regarding what is happening about the epidemic from Coronavirus Covid 19.
Therefore I quote:
” Coronavirus: we explain why you don’t have to be afraid but you have to stay at home.
I’m a CPR doctor and this is why I allow myself to explain why the State is making such drastic decisions.
The problem with Coronavirus is not its gravity, since it is only 10, or maybe 20 times more serious than the flu. Why is it more serious than flu?
It’s different, so we’re not very used to it;
Elders are not vaccinated.
So who is more at risk? The elders. As usual. Children much less, no serious paediatric cases are reported for the time being.
So why do we worry so much? Because it is MUCH MORE INFECTIVE than the flu, that means it is transmitted with enormous ease.
At this point let’s do some calculations so we can better understand what the problem is.
The Influence
As a rule, flu hits over a season, let’s assume in 5 months, about 10 % of the population. So it hits around 5 million Italians in the span of 30*5 = 150 days. Mortality is 0,1 %, so we have about 5000 deaths (almost all elderly) every year in 150 days. For each dead, we suppose we have about 4-5 patients in CPR, to keep us wide, and everyone should be put into ICU. We then put 25.000 people in ICU in 150 days, with an average inpatient of 7 days, which means 1000-2000 patients a day in ICU in Italy during the winter.
Let’s summarize:
Infectivity: 10 % potential (real data) = 50 million * 10 % = 5 million infected, many of them unaware.
Mortality: 0,1 % estimated = 5000 people in 150 days.
Critics: 5*0,1 % = 25.000 people in 150 days. so about 1000-2000 people in ICU a day due to flu.
The beds in ICU are for the province of Venice, where I live, about 60 out of 1 million inhabitants, so it could be about 4000 across Italy. This means that at worst case scenario patients with flu and its complications, i.e. pneumonia, occupy between 25 % and 50 % at maximum intensive therapies in Italy at peak.
The Coronavirus
Let’s see now what can happen with the Coronavirus. Let’s remember that the big difference is that Coronavirus is extremely more infectious and could infect us, instead of in 150 days, in 30-60 days. Suppose 60 days. Let’s remember that it can affect up to 60 % of the population, estimated data, so let’s do some calculations:
Infectivity: 60 % potential (estimated data) = 50 million * 60 % = 30 million infected, of which the vast majority unaware.
mortality: 1-2 % estimated = between 500.000 and 1.000.000 million people.
Critics: 5 % = 1.500.000 people in 60 days. so about 300.000 people in ICU.
But we only have 4000 beds! How can we put 300.000 people in ICU when we only have 4000 beds?
NOW YOU UNDERSTAND WHY YOU NEED TO BE HOME?
If you stay home, people get infected little by bit. Many don’t notice. The others, especially the elderly, but also some young people, we doctors and nurses take them, put them in ICU, treat them and return them to you. A little bit at a time.
If everyone leaves the house, the risk is that they will all get infected together and that we cannot manage them, with an important increase in mortality.
YOU DON ‘ T HAVE TO PANIC BUT TAKE IT SERIOUSLY. STAY HOME.
And above all, let me add, don’t come to the ER for futile reasons. We always say it but this time it’s even more important.”
So don’t be scared: each of you who will read this message has a very low probability of having big trouble from this infection, but try to behave so as to safeguard everyone’s good because there are many people (maybe even your acquaintances) who can instead risk a lot.
My endless date with self-isolation has led to some sobering realizations
COVID-19
Crown seeks to punish peaceful protestor Chris Barber by confiscating his family work truck “Big Red”
The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms announces that the Ontario Court of Justice will hold a hearing at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, November 26 at 161 Elgin Street, Ottawa, regarding the Crown’s attempt to permanently seize “Big Red,” the 2004 Kenworth long-haul truck relied upon by peaceful Freedom Convoy protestor Chris Barber and his family trucking business.
Constitutional lawyer Diane Magas, who represents Mr. Barber, is opposing the forfeiture.
“The impact of the forfeiture of ‘Big Red’, which is an essential part of the operation of Mr. Barber’s trucking business and is relied upon by Mr. Barber, his family as well as employees, is not what Parliament had in mind when enacting those forfeiture provisions, especially considering the context of a political protest where the police told Mr. Barber where to park the truck and when Mr. Barber moved the truck after being asked to move it,” she said.
Mr. Barber, a Saskatchewan trucker and central figure in the peaceful 2022 Freedom Convoy, depends on this vehicle for his livelihood. The Crown alleges that his truck constitutes “offence-related property.”
The November 26 hearing will address the Crown’s application to seize the truck and will include evidence regarding ownership and corporate title. The Court will also consider an application filed earlier this year by Mr. Barber’s family, who are asserting their rights as interested third parties and seeking to prevent the loss of the vehicle.
Mr. Barber was found guilty of mischief and counselling others to breach a court order following the peaceful Freedom Convoy protest, despite his consistent cooperation with law enforcement and reliance on legal advice during the events of early 2022. At sentencing, the Court acknowledged that he “came with the noblest of intent and did not advocate for violence,” emphasizing that Mr. Barber encouraged calm and compliance.
Mr. Barber said, “‘Big Red’ is how I put food on the table. I followed every instruction police gave me during the protest, and I never imagined the government would try to take the very truck I rely on to earn a living.”
COVID-19
Freedom Convoy protestor Evan Blackman convicted at retrial even after original trial judge deemed him a “peacemaker”
Evan Blackman and his son at a hockey game
The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms announces that peaceful Freedom Convoy protestor Evan Blackman has been convicted of mischief and obstructing a peace officer at the conclusion of his retrial at the Ontario Court of Justice, despite being fully acquitted on these charges at his original trial in October 2023.
The Court imposed a conditional discharge, meaning Mr. Blackman will have no jail time and no criminal record, along with 12 months’ probation, 122 hours of community service, and a $200 victim fine surcharge.
The judge dismissed a Charter application seeking to have the convictions overturned on the basis of the government freezing his bank accounts without explanation amid the Emergencies Act crackdown in 2022.
Lawyers funded by the Justice Centre had argued that Mr. Blackman acted peacefully during the enforcement action that followed the federal government’s February 14, 2022, invocation of the Emergencies Act. Drone footage entered as evidence showed Mr. Blackman deescalating confrontations, raising his hand to keep protestors back, and kneeling in front of officers while singing “O Canada.” The original trial judge described Mr. Blackman as a “peacemaker,” and acquitted him on all charges, but the Crown challenged that ruling, resulting in the retrial that has now led to his conviction.
Mr. Blackman was first arrested on February 18, 2022, during the police action to clear protestors from downtown Ottawa. Upon his release that same day, he discovered that three of his personal bank accounts had been frozen under the Emergency Economic Measures Order. RCMP Assistant Commissioner Michel Arcand later confirmed that 257 bank accounts had been frozen nationwide under the Emergencies Act.
Constitutional lawyer Chris Fleury said, “While we are relieved that Mr. Blackman received a conditional discharge and will not carry a criminal record, we remain concerned that peaceful protestors continue to face disproportionate consequences stemming from the federal government’s response in February 2022.”
“We are disappointed that the Court declined to stay Mr. Blackman’s convictions, which are tainted by the serious infringements of his Charter-protected rights. Mr. Blackman is currently assessing whether he will be appealing this finding,” he added.
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