As Mexico prepares to position 10,000 troops between cartels and their drug money, odds are the lead will fly
The chosen political slogan of Mexico’s last and current president, “Abrazos, no balazos” (“Hugs, not Bullets”), is often embraced to describe official government policy toward the country’s ultra-violent drug-trafficking cartels. The beauty of this slogan is that it requires no explanation.
The reverse, however, “Bullets, not Hugs,” is probably up next whether Mexico likes it or not. President Donald Trump has just forced Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to capitulate to a threat of ruinous 25% trade tariffs on Mexican exports unless she uses military force to suppress the flow of fentanyl (and illegal immigrant smuggling) over the U.S. southern border. She’s deploying 10,000 troops to cartel country, right smack in the drug-trafficking lanes of Mexico’s far northern precincts along the U.S. border.
This deployment of Mexican troops, however, is quite different from previous ones, in which the main mission was to slow illegal immigration only, including during Trump’s first term and throughout the Biden term. For this one, the Trump mission demand is, as State Department Spokeswoman Tammy Bruce put it recently, that Mexico needs to “…dismantle transnational criminal organizations, halt illegal migration, and stem the flow of fentanyl and precursor chemicals from China.”
That American priority has just put Mexican forces in the crosshairs of the most sensitive cartel hotspot: the blood-soaked zone between heavily armed cartel forces and their money just across the U.S. border.
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As if this was not provocative enough on its own, a senior Trump official with direct knowledge told me bilateral plans call for at least some of the more trusted of Mexico’s forces to physically attack cartel-run narcotics depots that would include pre-smuggling fentanyl hubs inside Mexico.
Certain U.S. intelligence groups are working with the Mexican government “to give them an exact laydown. They say they’re going to target the narcotics. We’re literally still at the table.”
All of this should prove triggering, literally, to any of Mexico’s nine main cartels once the whole enterprise ramps up in earnest.
I have a good feel for what this set of circumstances portends. As a reporter for Hearst News in San Antonio, Texas, from 2006-2009, I regularly covered the exceptionally bloody civil drug war against the cartels that Felipe de Jesus Calderón Hinojosa (2006-2012) declared and which, after hundreds of thousands of Mexican casualties, spawned the popularly preferred “Hugs, not Bullets” policies of his successors. The U.S. partnered with Mexico throughout the war, providing targeting intelligence and billions of dollars to modernize its security forces. All of that was for a quest to stem the flow of illegal drugs into the United States.
But after six years of ferocious combat and widespread torture and assassination, Mexico retreated in almost total defeat. The drug flow may have dipped from time to time but it never stopped.
In the years since, I’ve often pondered whether Calderón and his successors should have trebled down when defeat seemed inevitable, as did former President George W. Bush during the Iraq war. When the chips were down amid calls for a humiliating U.S. withdrawal during the Iraq war, Bush famously turned the tables by deploying 30,000 more troops. With Mexico, however, disrupting fentanyl production and trafficking with the military will not be easy, and may very well spark another government-cartel war similar to 2006-2012.
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The stars and planets all seem to be aligning for more violence, including from an unexpected quarter: President Sheinbaum herself may be aching for this fight.
Rodrigo Nieto-Gomez, a Mexico-born and educated national security research professor for the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California said Sheinbaum has installed anti-cartel Morena Party hardliners over much of Mexico’s state security apparatuses. This wing of her party, Nieto-Gomez explained, has been spoiling to shed the “Hugs, not bullets” policy for a good hard fight with the cartels.
Trump is now providing a “top-cover” excuse for them to finally exert the military pressure they’ve been wanting.
“Trump’s actions have temporarily tilted the playing field in favor of Morena,” Nieto-Gomez said. “With the right philosophy and the right level of American support, we may see a different type of violence in Mexico.”
Perhaps a worthy achievable goal for Mexican military fireworks is that it forces a sort of devil’s truce where the cartels, whose leaders are the most consummate and pragmatic of capitalists, ultimately agree to voluntarily quit fentanyl altogether as a good business decision — if the other drugs are allowed to roll in as usual. After all, when the operatives are shooting and dying, they’re spending rather than earning.
What seems certain, however, is that Trump’s inevitable following through on his campaign promises to suppress fentanyl ups the chances of a conflict between the Mexican military and the cartels. No doubt the cartels are now feeling uncharacteristically pinched these days on many other fronts thanks to Trump’s return.
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Trump has asked his Secretary of State to designate them as foreign terrorist organizations, which would open authorities for America and its allies to seize assets and prosecute banks and people who work with the cartels on serious “material support” crimes. To isolate and weaken them where it counts, in the pocketbook, and disrupt their global operations.
And, of course, Trump has all but killed the biggest cash cow those cartels have seen in years by shuttering the southern border almost hermetically in a matter of days. Their smugglers are moving probably fewer than 500 illegal immigrants a day now, most of them caught and deported right away, compared to 14,000 a day last December. Those numbers are a catastrophe and should drive the cartels to invest everything they have in drug trafficking again.
Because they are now free from babysitting and processing illegal migrants all day long, Border Patrol is back on the drug traffickers full force and they have help, the U.S. military is down there glassing the landscape and using surveillance assets to spot the traffickers.
Some of the cartels were already so frustrated their leaders approved the use of drones to attack U.S. agents standing in the way of drug loads. Cases of firearms attacks on Border Patrol are rising.
Now Mexico’s going to put 10,000 troops in between them and their money?
If she is not already, Sheinbaum should be preparing for the worst right about now. President Trump absolutely expects some kind of real action — with demonstrable results — or else he’ll push that tariff button. She’s under pressure right now to produce something, anything, whether for show or not. And the cartels are ever ready to go to war.
Thanks to former President Joe Biden’s mass migration program, it could very well happen, because now the impulsive, brazen, money-hungry cartels are are extremely well-armed from the billions they all earned over the past four years.
John Moore/Getty Images
Sheinbaum undoubtedly discerns the dangers here and will have to tread carefully between appeasing Trump and sparking another all-out civil war, which many in the United States believe is long overdue. And maybe it is. She and all the cartel leaders would probably feel lucky to cap things down to merely a “splendid little war” like the 1898 Spanish-American war.
But President Trump knows the art of the deal often pivots on what’s good business for everyone involved.
Mexico’s 2006-2012 war shows the cartels will more than likely survive whatever fireworks are coming, if any. Trump may make them realize sooner rather than later that they just have to give up the fentanyl.
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Prior to President Donald Trump authorizing targeted strikes against Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday, federal agents and Texas Department of Public Safety troopers have been arresting Iranian nationals, nearly all men, in the U.S. illegally. In the last few months, federal prosecutors have also brought terrorism charges against Iranians, including those in the U.S. working for the Iranian government.
Iran is a designated state sponsor of terrorism. Iranian nationals illegally in the country are considered “special interest aliens” under federal law.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Sunday issued a warning to all Americans to be on a heightened threat alert.
“The ongoing Iran conflict is causing a heightened threat environment in the United States,” DHS warned. “Low-level cyber attacks against US networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against US networks.
“Iran also has a long-standing commitment to target US Government officials it views as responsible for the death of an Iranian military commander killed in January 2020.”
U.S. officials have no idea how many Iranians are in the U.S. illegally because at least two million “gotaways” were recorded entering the U.S. during the Biden administration. Gotaways are those who illegally entered the U.S. between ports of entry who were not apprehended.
Key arrests include an Iranian living in the sanctuary jurisdiction of Natick, Mass., who is charged “with conspiring to export sophisticated electronic components from the United States to Iran in violation of U.S. export control and sanctions laws,” The Center Square reported. Authorities accuse the Iranian of illegally exporting the technological equipment to a company in Iran that contracts with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a US-designated foreign terrorist organization (FTO). The company allegedly manufactured drones used by the IRGC that killed U.S. soldiers stationed in Jordan.
Texas DPS troopers have arrested dozens of Iranian special interest aliens. Last October, DPS troopers questioned Iranians who illegally entered the U.S. near Eagle Pass, Texas, who said they came through Mexico and were headed to Florida, Las Vegas and San Francisco, The Center Square reported.
Last November and December, DPS troopers arrested Iranians in Maverick County after sounding the alarm about an increase of SIAs they were apprehending, The Center Square reported.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers also apprehended an Iranian with terrorist ties who illegally entered the U.S. near Buffalo, New York, The Center Square reported.
More recently, in April, two Iranians were charged in New York with conspiring to procure U.S. parts for Iranian drones, conspiring to provide material support to the IRGC and conspiring to commit money laundering. They remain at large. The charges “lay bare how U.S.-made technology ended up in the hands of the Iranian military to build attack drones,” DOJ National Security Division chief Sue Bai said.
Also in April, two Iranians and one Pakistani, were indicted in Virginia “for conspiring to provide and providing material support to Iran’s weapons of mass destruction program resulting in death and conspiring to commit violence against maritime navigation and maritime transport involving weapons of mass destruction resulting in death.” The Pakistani is awaiting trial; the Iranians remain at large.
Their involvement in maritime smuggling off the coast of Somalia led to the death of two Navy SEALs, according to the charges.
Also in April, a naturalized citizen working for the Federal Aviation Administration as a contractor pleaded guilty to charges of “acting and conspiring to act as an illegal agent of the Iranian government in the United States” for a period of five years. He was indicted last December in the District of Columbia for “infiltrating a U.S. agency with the intent of providing Iran with sensitive information,” including exfiltrating sensitive FAA documents to Iranian intelligence.
“The brazen acts of this defendant – acting against the United States while on U.S. soil – is a clear example of how our enemies are willing to take risks in order to do us harm,” U.S. Attorney Edward Martin said. “We want to remind anyone with access to our critical infrastructure about the importance of keeping that information out of the hands of our adversaries. I want to commend our prosecutors and law enforcement partners who secured a guilty plea that will keep our country safer.”
Also in April, an Iranian national was indicted in Ohio for operating a dark web marketplace selling methamphetamine, cocaine, fentanyl, heroin and oxycodone and other drugs; and for stealing financial information, using fraudulent identification documents, counterfeit currencies, and computer malware. Working with German and Lithuanian partners, he was charged, servers and other infrastructure were seized, and drugs and other contraband were stopped from entering the U.S., DOJ Criminal Division head Matthew Galeotti said.
Also in April, ICE Homeland Security Investigations in New York announced a civil forfeiture action halting an Iranian oil sale scheme that went on for years under the Biden administration.
The scheme involved facilitating the shipment, storage and sale of Iranian petroleum product owned by the National Iranian Oil Company for the benefit of the IRGC and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, designated FTOs. The facilitators allegedly claimed the Iranian oil was from Malaysia, manipulated tanker identification information, falsified documents, paid storage fees in U.S. dollars and conducted transactions with U.S. financial institutions. The federal government seized $47 million in proceeds from the sale.
The complaint alleges they provided material support to the IRGC and IRGC-QF because profits support “proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery, support for terrorism, and both domestic and international human rights abuses.”
Last December, a federal court in the District of Columbia ordered the forfeiture of nearly $12 million connected with Iran’s illicit petroleum industry, involving Triliance Petrochemical Company, the IRGC and Quds Forces. FBI Tampa and Minneapolis were involved in the investigation.
Examples also exist of Iranians making false statements when applying for naturalization, including an Iranian in Tampa indicted last year.
Protests in Los Angeles continued into Thursday night as tensions died down across the West Coast ahead of thousands of anti-Trump demonstrations planned for Saturday — the “No Kings Day” event is set to take place coast-to-coast amid civil unrest nationwide.
The Los Angeles Police Department posted to X as the 8 p.m. curfew went into effect Thursday, reporting that protesters were throwing “bricks, concrete and commercial grade fireworks.” The agency said less lethal munitions have been authorized and “may cause pain and discomfort.
The curfew covers an area where demonstrators have spent days protesting President Donald Trump’s immigration raids and the deployment of the California National Guard. A federal judge blocked his use of the guard late Thursday, but did not rule on the Marines also deployed there.
Gov. Gavin Newsom held a press conference in San Francisco shortly after the ruling, calling out Trump for deploying the guard without his consent. U.S. District Judge Charles R. Breyer’s preliminary injunction takes effect Friday, at which point Newsom will resume control of his National Guard.
“This is what he does. He creates a problem, and then he tries to be a hero in his own Marvel movie. He initiated those raids,” Newsom said of Trump’s actions. “He significantly increased the scale and scope of those raids. That’s why he wants the National Guard, hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of guardsmen and women, now being dispersed everywhere.”
The Trump administration filed an intent to appeal Breyer’s ruling shortly after. In the meantime, the guard will go back to its regular duties on Friday instead of guarding the federal immigration in downtown Los Angeles, only one day before thousands of protests nationwide against Trump.
According to a press release, the LAPD arrested 71 people for failure to disperse Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and intends to post another update Friday morning. Seven others were also arrested for violating the curfew, and two for assaulting an officer with a deadly weapon.
Protesters filmed live streams on YouTube leading up to the curfew, reporting that some people were arrested and that they heard munitions being fired. Some demonstrators encouraged the group to disperse, adding that escalating things may be what the administration is waiting for.
The Los Angeles Department of Transportation posted to social media Thursday evening that it had cut services short for the day in response to the protests. LAPD vehicles were seen lining the streets, with officers ready to issue arrests in the event of further unrest or curfew violations.
In some live streams, officers were seen issuing arrests just 30 minutes after the 8 p.m. curfew, and in some instances, towing away vehicles. Another protest in Salt Lake City, Utah, kicked off at 6 p.m. on Thursday after the Party for Socialism & Liberation called for demonstrations there.
The Salt Lake Police Department told KSL News Radio that the demonstration of roughly 600 people was mostly peaceful, aside from a damaged Tesla. Officers broke up some fights and remained on scene as it died down around 8:30 p.m., Brian Will with KUTV 2 News reported.
